Serial Founder / Scientist / Asset Manager

New Hope, PA
Joined April 2013
Joseph Miller retweeted
POV: claude traveled 6 months into the future and told you exactly how your next move failed. it's called a premortem. daniel kahneman (nobel prize-winning psychologist behind "thinking fast and slow") called it his single most valuable decision-making technique. google, goldman sachs, and procter & gamble all use it before major launches. here's the problem it solves. when you ask claude "is this a good plan?" it finds all the reasons to say yes. that's what it was trained to do. so you walk away feeling confident. you execute, and spend weeks / months building on top of that plan. then it blows up. and you realize the problem was obvious in hindsight, you just never stress-tested it because claude told you it was solid. a premortem fixes this by flipping the frame. instead of asking "what could go wrong?" you tell claude "it's 6 months from now and this is already dead. tell me how it died." that shift turns off claude's optimism because there's nothing to be optimistic about. the premise already says it failed. so claude stops looking for reasons your plan will work and starts explaining how it fell apart. claude comes back with every way your plan could die, each one with a full failure story and the early warning signs to watch for. then a synthesis pulls it all together: > which failure is most likely > which failure is most dangerous > the single biggest hidden assumption you're making (often the most valuable part) > a revised version of your plan with the gaps closed you say "premortem this" and give it your plan. the skill handles the rest.
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It’s good to remember: If you hear the same message in a small window of time, someone is very likely paying for you to hear it. A particularly good tell is when they use the same word. For example, “narrative violation” is very popular right now.
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Joseph Miller retweeted
you can outsource your thinking but you cannot outsource your understanding
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Joseph Miller retweeted
Kirk Cousins agent
If aliens visit us, who should be in charge of speaking on behalf of humanity?
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Joseph Miller retweeted
Replying to @Hesamation
Every day we stray further from god's light but closer to passive income.
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Joseph Miller retweeted
AI for Alpha: Reshaping Crypto Trading 🤖 Can AI agents actually trade and make money? We’re exploring the future of prediction markets. 🎯 Why AI × prediction markets? 💸 Where AI × crypto trading is headed next 🔮 What it really takes to build an AI trading product 🗓️ Mar 25, 9 PM HKT / 9 AM ET 🎙️ Featuring: • @dex_chen_V (@semanticlayer) • @moonshot6666 (@get_truenorth) • @likeAScientist (@CircuitAI) • @PiP_Quant (@elastics_ai) hosted by @_RayXiao Set your reminder below! 👇xitter.cf/i/spaces/1vJpPrz…
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Joseph Miller retweeted
This won't work because the majority of people need to believe they have an edge in trading Simplify the UI too much and it becomes too obvious that you're gambling Make the UI complex enough and you can convince a gambler he has edge despite consistently losing money for half a decade
The future of retail gambling onchain is with tap trading. This is like TikTok for trading.
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You know how I know I'm old? I just said out loud, "The 90s is definitively the best decade for music". And that's a wrap.
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Been quiet but trust we've been cooking. I've now deployed 30 agents all together on @CircuitAI. AI, Gaming, DeFi, Meme, L1s, Majors all w/ Risk Parity Agents running indexes for all themes. Technical ML swing trading, MOM, MR, you name it and my agents trade HL perps on it.
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Joseph Miller retweeted
Replying to @conksresearch
It’s only QE if they buy duration. Otherwise it’s just sparkling money-printing.
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Oh @HyperliquidX perp agents on @CircuitAI? Fine. But first just one more @Polymarket agent...
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This weeks @CircuitAI NFL agent off to a good start with the @Ravens crushing the @MiamiDolphins it tonight on TNF.
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Looks like we’ll go 5 for 6 this weekend, not too bad! Cowboys game ongoing but we have Denver in that one. Will absolutely get wrecked in the three O/U bets on that game though. May need to refine that logic as discretionarily I felt the under wasn’t a great bet.
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Also, let be honest, you did not have the jets winning that game either.
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New logic dropped on the @CircuitAI NFL Polymarket Agent and now it has a lot of opinions on this week’s games. Let’s see how it does. Went 2 for 2 last weekend picking Denver and the Browns (Under) for those following along.
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I see these sorts of arbs being talked about all the time. Put up 13k you have a 93ish% chance of making 44 dollars and a 7ish% chance of making 1367 or so for an expected profit of 1ish%…in like two weeks.. You can make dozens of dollars!
You can probably make some amount of free money arbitraging Kalshi and Polymarket against each other Will Andrew Cuomo be mayor? Yes is 6.3 cents on Kalshi No is 92 cents on Polymarket Bet on both and you win every single time
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.@CircuitAI NFL - Polymarket agent bets today. This agent is constantly aggregating U.S bookmaker betting lines and comparing them to the price action and implied probabilities on @PolymarketSport to find good entries.
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