a spec on the blue marble
Joined May 2009
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America is a mess. Is there another developed country with such a high homicide rate? @grok
The United States ranks **dead last**—meaning it has the **highest homicide rate**—among advanced developed nations.
Whether looking at the OECD countries, the G7, or the world's wealthiest nations by GDP per capita, the U.S. consistently stands as a massive outlier:
* **The Rate:** The U.S. intentional homicide rate typically hovers between **5.0 and 7.8 per 100,000 people** depending on the specific reporting year.
* **The Comparison:** Most other developed nations—such as Japan, Germany, the United Kingdom, France, Italy, and Australia—maintain homicide rates well under **1.5 per 100,000 people** (often below 1.0).
This means a person in the United States is roughly **5 to 8 times more likely** to be a victim of homicide than someone living in peer wealthy nations. Data from organizations like the UNODC and the World Health Organization show that this gap is overwhelmingly driven by firearm-related homicides, where the U.S. rate is more than 20 times higher than the average of the rest of the developed world.
jason lipiner retweeted
HOLY CRAP
3 dead 2 injured in shooting at In-N-out Burger in Idaho
Shooter is dead
Dear World Series of poker, I will not enter a Tournement with day 2 registration on day 1. I suggest fixing the broken system. Sincerely recreational poker player. @WSOP
jason lipiner retweeted
We don’t need to see 25k/50k high rollers as we have access to dozens of them throughout the year. Not showing a minute of the POKER PLAYERS championship can’t be a bigger failure. It’s the best WSOP tourney to show outside of the Main, and by a wide margin.
Hot off the heels of his 3rd-place finish in the $10k Stud Championship, Allen “Chainsaw” Kessler @AllenKessler is crowdfunding his entry into the $50k Poker Players Championship (PPC).
The last time Allen played the PPC in 2014, he also crowdfunded his entry and finished 8th out of 102 runners for $134,000.
He is selling up to 90% of his action at zero markup!
Ways to buy:
* PokerStake (Easiest, zero fees/markup, accepts credit cards and PayPal): pokerstake.com/staking/poker…
* Cash: Directly to Allen at the WSOP
* Crypto: Send to Jason Lipiner
* Chainsaw Club Members: Deduct from your club balance
jason lipiner retweeted
Last night I asked the live stream producer why they were filming hands from the $10K stud play down to the ft.
I said, "does this mean you'll be streaming the final table"?
He chuckled and said, "no we're not streaming any mixed events.
This is for the highlight reel before we stream some no limit events".
jason lipiner retweeted
By the immense skill of having a warm body over 21 years of age, I just outlasted 72% of the $600 PLO Deepstack field.
I haven’t set foot into the tournament yet.
#pfa15
jason lipiner retweeted
Woah, that 1st WSOP event is a $456.50+$93.50! A 20.5% reg fee for a 30 minute clock monkey event is wild. Add to that, all the max late reggers (10bbs with 65% of the field gone) sniping a 25+% ICM-bump.
Recs in from start coz they actually wanna play poker are getting wrecked!
My favorite contest every year. If you’re into poker I highly recommend giving it a shot!
The ODB fantasy draft is back for year 11!!! We are thrilled to have @25kfantasy running the website again this year. Every year this continues to become one of the highlights of the WSOP calendar. Below find the rules, all scoring details are on @25kfantasy website
jason lipiner retweeted
I am the Head of Product at Trump Mobile. There is no product. I have the best job in America.
590,000 people paid $100 each to preorder a gold phone that does not exist. That is $59 million. My KPI is deposit velocity. I have a whiteboard in my office that says DEPOSIT VELOCITY. There is nothing else on the whiteboard.
We announced the phone June 2025. Gold case. American flag on the back. "Made in the USA." Ship date: August. I moved it to November. Then December. Then Q1 2026. Then mid-March. Each time I sent 590,000 people an email that said "exciting update." The exciting update was that the phone still did not exist. In April I deleted the ship date from the website entirely. I got a standing ovation on the all-hands. That was our most successful product milestone.
The phone is a $499 gold Android. 50MP camera. 6.78-inch display. Fingerprint sensor. I have never held one. Nobody on earth has held one. We got the T1 certified for network compatibility in March. We celebrated like we'd shipped. We did not ship. We certified the concept of a phone. The network said: if this thing existed, it could connect. We called that a breakthrough.
On April 6th I updated the terms and conditions. "A preorder deposit does not guarantee that a Device will be produced or made available for purchase." Trump Mobile does not guarantee regulatory approval. Does not guarantee production. Does not guarantee delivery. Does not guarantee the phone will exist. The deposit is non-transferable and carries no independent cash value. I have the printout framed in my office next to the whiteboard. That is the only thing we have shipped on schedule.
"Made in the USA" lasted three months. Became "American-proud design." Then "designed with American values in mind." We manufacture overseas. Final assembly of 10 components happens in Miami. We counted putting the flag sticker on the back as one of the 10. While 590,000 people wait for their gold phone, we are currently selling refurbished iPhones. Made in China. With a Trump logo on the box. For $47.45 a month on T-Mobile's network. We are reselling another company's network at a patriotic markup. The plan is called the 47 Plan. The 47 is the only original thing about it.
An intern asked me last month when we are going to build the phone. I promoted her to VP of Customer Expectations.
Senator Warren wrote the FTC in January. I am not worried. We will have launched the next product before they finish reading the letter. That is always the math. I know the math because I have been watching it evolve for years.
Trump University promised education. Delivered weekend seminars in hotel conference rooms. 5,000 students. Settled for $25 million. That was version 1.0. You had to rent the room. You had to print the binder. You had to hire the speaker. You had to settle. Three entire obligations.
$TRUMP memecoin. No education. No binder. No room. Peaked at $75. Now $2.80. Down 96%. 1 billion tokens minted. 80% went to the team. 45 wallets gained $1.2 billion on launch night while everyone else watched their screens. For every dollar insiders made, retail lost twenty. That was version 2.0. You did not have to build anything. You did not have to hire anyone. You just had to press mint. Two obligations eliminated.
$MELANIA. Same model. Launched 48 hours later on the same audience. Down 99%. 24 wallets bought $2.6 million worth exactly 2.5 minutes before the First Lady's announcement. One wallet turned $681,000 into $39 million in 24 hours. The team controls 92% of supply. Her launch crashed her husband's token by 50% in the same hour. That was version 2.1. A patch, not a release. You did not even need a new customer base. You could cannibalize the last one.
WLFI. World Liberty Financial. The President's crypto project. Took $500 million from 600,000 wallets. Tokens locked. Cannot sell. Cannot transfer. Cannot leave. Team holds 73% of supply and votes to unlock itself. The project's advisor borrowed $75 million on a lending platform he co-founded. Using investor tokens as collateral. On a protocol where the project is 82.7% of total value locked. Other depositors could not withdraw. The President's family takes 75 cents of every dollar. That was version 3.0. You did not have to deliver anything. You did not have to pretend anything would go up. You just had to lock the door and keep the key. One obligation remaining: the smart contract.
Trump Mobile is version 4.0.
I did not have to mint a token. Did not have to write a smart contract. Did not have to lock a single wallet. Did not have to build a lending platform or freeze a billionaire or rig a governance vote. I put a flag on a gold rectangle that does not exist, opened a deposit page, collected $59 million from 590,000 Americans, and then updated the terms to say the deposit does not guarantee the rectangle will ever be real.
The version history, in case you are keeping score:
1.0 — Had to rent a room. Had to settle.
2.0 — Had to mint. Didn't have to build.
2.1 — Didn't even need new customers.
3.0 — Didn't have to deliver. They couldn't leave.
4.0 — Didn't have to promise. They paid for the flag.
Each version removes one obligation. University had three. We are down to zero. My product roadmap is one slide. It says DEPOSITS.
Version 5.0 will not need the webpage.
The phone was never the product. The deposit was always the product. The flag was the conversion funnel. The name was the close. The terms update was the only deliverable. "Made in the USA" was the positioning until it wasn't and then "American values" was the positioning until that stops working and then we will find new words that mean nothing and those will work too because the words were never the product either.
I am the Head of Product at Trump Mobile. I have never made a phone. I have made $59 million. The product is the transaction. Delivery is a legacy feature from version 1.0 and we deprecated it three versions ago.
It is a disgrace. NV politicians are “protecting” us by banning @Kalshi while ignoring the fact that indoor smoking is literally killing people on casino floors every day. Why is a regulated market a threat, but toxic secondhand smoke is fine? Fix your priorities.
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jason lipiner retweeted
Not exactly and You forgot a few…Libya Vietnam Sudan Laos Syria Yemen Cambodia Panama (1st invasion)….but there’s plenty of success stories too South Korea Germany France Belgium Netherlands Bosnia the entire Eastern Europe Dominican Republic Panama (2nd) Kuwait. Let’s hope Iran becomes a success story!
jason lipiner retweeted
They did not bomb Iran. They waited for Iran’s entire leadership to sit down in the same room and then they bombed Iran.
Months of intelligence. Thousands of hours of surveillance and signal intercepts. One variable: the moment the Supreme Leader, the President, and senior military command gathered in a single location at the same time.
That moment was 8:15 this morning. Daylight. Every previous Israeli strike on Iran came at night. June 2025 launched in darkness. October 2024 after midnight. Iran’s entire air defense doctrine is built around the assumption that Israel attacks in the dark. Israel attacked in broad daylight because the target was not infrastructure. The target was a meeting.
Reuters confirms strikes targeted Khamenei and Pezeshkian. CNN confirms months of joint US-Israeli planning. Israeli officials confirmed the strike hit the location where Iran’s top officials were gathered. Whether Khamenei was moved before the strike or extracted after is the most consequential unknown on the planet right now. If before, someone inside Tehran’s inner circle told Jerusalem when and where the meeting would happen. If after, the strikes hit the room and he survived. Both scenarios are catastrophic for the regime.
Because Iran’s leadership now knows three things. Israel knew where they were meeting. Israel knew when they were meeting. Israel knew who would be in the room. And everything we watched over the past month, the F-22s at Ovda, the tankers at Ben Gurion, Al Udeid emptied to zero, 270 transport flights, all of it was the delivery architecture for one precision strike on one gathering.
Every future meeting of Iran’s senior leadership now carries one question: does Israel know about this one too.
This is not a military operation. This is the destruction of institutional trust inside a regime. Every general who sits with Khamenei tomorrow will wonder who told Jerusalem about today. Every IRGC commander who receives a meeting summons will calculate whether attendance is duty or a death sentence. Every secure facility in Tehran has been proven insecure.
In June 2025 Israel killed 30 generals in the opening minutes. That was brute force across dispersed targets. This was a scalpel. One meeting. One moment. Months of patience.
Iran fired missiles at six countries in retaliation. Most intercepted. One civilian dead from debris in Abu Dhabi. Saudi Arabia responded by pledging all its capabilities against Iran. The Gulf coalition that did not exist yesterday exists today because Tehran built it by attacking everyone simultaneously.
Israel traded one morning of precision strikes for the permanent destruction of Iran’s command cohesion.
That is not a battle. That is checkmate disguised as a first move. open.substack.com/pub/shanak…
Iran just fired missiles at five countries simultaneously. Here is what actually happened to each of them.
Bahrain. Confirmed hit on the US Navy Fifth Fleet headquarters. Bahrain’s own state news agency reported the strike. No casualty figures released yet. This is the command center for every American naval operation in the Persian Gulf. It was struck.
UAE. Multiple missiles intercepted by Emirati air defenses. One civilian killed in Abu Dhabi from falling debris. The UAE defense ministry confirmed the intercepts. The Emirates just absorbed an act of war on its sovereign territory from a country it shares a maritime border with.
Qatar. Missile intercepted. Zero damage. The Qatari Interior Ministry confirmed. The same country Iran just attacked is the country that hosted Al Udeid for twenty years as a gesture of regional balance. That balance ended this morning.
Kuwait. KUNA state news agency confirmed missiles were “dealt with” in Kuwaiti airspace. No reported damage. Kuwait, which stayed neutral through every Gulf crisis since 1991, just had Iranian ballistic missiles flying over its cities.
Jordan. Two Iranian ballistic missiles shot down by Jordanian military. Confirmed by the Jordanian armed forces directly. Jordan intercepted Iranian missiles in June 2025 as well. That was in defense of Israel. This time Iran targeted Jordan itself.
Saudi Arabia. Fars News claims strikes. No confirmation from any Saudi source. No Tier 1 or Tier 2 verification. Either it did not happen or Riyadh is not yet ready to say it did. Both possibilities carry enormous implications.
Now understand what Iran just accomplished strategically. In attempting to retaliate against Israel and America, the IRGC fired missiles at six sovereign nations in a single morning. Not one of those nations attacked Iran. Bahrain did not bomb Tehran. The UAE did not launch strikes on Isfahan. Qatar hosted diplomatic back channels. Kuwait maintained neutrality for three decades. Jordan was mediating.
Iran just converted every neutral and semi-neutral state in the Gulf into a potential co-belligerent. Every nation whose airspace was violated, whose civilians were killed, whose sovereignty was breached now has legal and political justification to join whatever coalition forms next.
And the damage tells the real story. One civilian dead from debris. Intercepts across four countries. No confirmed destruction of any US military asset. No reported American casualties among 40,000 troops in theater. Iran fired at the entire Gulf and the Gulf caught almost everything.
Compare this to what Israel did to Tehran this morning. Precision strikes on the IRGC Intelligence Directorate. Explosions near the Supreme Leader’s office. Three detonations in central Tehran confirmed by Iranian state media itself.
One side hit what it aimed at. The other side hit one civilian with debris.
This is the asymmetry that will define the next 72 hours. Iran demonstrated intent to strike everywhere and capability to hit almost nothing. The Gulf states demonstrated they can defend themselves. And now those states must decide whether the country that just fired ballistic missiles across their borders gets to do it again.
They will not let it happen again.
Watch for the joint statement. Watch for airspace coordination between Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, Manama, and Kuwait City. Watch for the coalition that Iran just built against itself with a single salvo.
Iran did not retaliate against Israel this morning. Iran gave every country in the Middle East a reason to retaliate against Iran.
full transcript of trump declaration of war with iran
A short time ago, the United States military began major combat operations in Iran. Our objective is to defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime, a vicious group of very hard, terrible people. Its menacing activities directly endanger the United States, our troops, our bases overseas, and our allies throughout the world. For 47 years, the Iranian regime has chanted death to America and waged an unending campaign of bloodshed and mass murder targeting the United States, our troops, and the innocent people in many, many countries. Among the regime's very first acts was to back a violent takeover of the US Embassy in Tehran, holding dozens of American hostages for 444 days. In 1983, Iran's proxies carried out the Marine barracks bombing in Beirut that killed 241 American military personnel. In 2000, they knew and were probably involved with the attack on the USS Cole. Many died. Iranian forces killed and maimed hundreds of American service members in Iraq. The regime's proxies have continued to launch countless attacks against American forces stationed in the Middle East in recent years, as well as US naval and commercial vessels in international shipping lanes. It's been mass terror, and we're not going to put up with it any longer. From Lebanon to Yemen and Syria to Iraq, the regime has armed, trained, and funded terrorist militias that have soaked the earth with blood and guts.
And it was Iran's proxy, Hamas, that launched the monstrous October 7th attacks on Israel, slaughtering more than 1,000 innocent people, including 46 Americans, while taking 12 of our citizens hostage. It was brutal, something like the world has never seen before. Iran is the world's number one state sponsor of terror and just recently killed tens of thousands of its own citizens on the streets as they protested. It has always been the policy of the United States, in particular, my administration, that this terrorist regime can never have a nuclear weapon. I'll say it again: they can never have a nuclear weapon. That is why, in Operation Midnight Hammer last year, we obliterated the regime's nuclear program at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. After that attack, we warned them never to resume their malicious pursuit of nuclear weapons, and we sought repeatedly to make a deal. We tried. They wanted to do it, they didn't want to do it, again they wanted to do it, they didn't want to do it. They didn't know what was happening; they just wanted to practice evil.
But Iran refused, just as it has for decades and decades. They've rejected every opportunity to renounce their nuclear ambitions, and we can't take it anymore. Instead, they attempted to rebuild their nuclear program and to continue developing long-range missiles that can now threaten our very good friends and allies in Europe, our troops stationed overseas, and could soon reach the American homeland. Just imagine how emboldened this regime would be if they ever had and actually were armed with nuclear weapons as a means to deliver their message. For these reasons, the United States military is undertaking a massive and ongoing operation to prevent this very wicked, radical dictatorship from threatening America and our core national security interests. We are going to destroy their missiles and raze their missile industry to the ground. It will be totally, again, obliterated. We're going to annihilate their navy. We're going to ensure that the region's terrorist proxies can no longer destabilize the region or the world, and attack our forces, and no longer use their IEDs or roadside bombs, as they are sometimes called, to so gravely wound and kill thousands and thousands of people, including many Americans. And we will ensure that Iran does not obtain a nuclear weapon. It's a very simple message: they will never have a nuclear weapon.
This regime will soon learn that no one should challenge the strength and might of the United States armed forces. I built and rebuilt our military in my first administration, and there is no military on earth even close to its power, strength, or sophistication. My administration has taken every possible step to minimize the risk to US personnel in the region. Even so, and I do not make this statement lightly, the Iranian regime seeks to kill. The lives of courageous American heroes may be lost, and we may have casualties. That often happens in war. But we're doing this not for now, we're doing this for the future, and it is a noble mission. We pray for every service member as they selflessly risk their lives to ensure that Americans and our children will never be threatened by a nuclear-armed Iran. We ask God to protect all of our heroes in harm's way, and we trust that, with His help, the men and women of the armed forces will prevail. We have the greatest in the world, and they will prevail.
To the members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard, the armed forces, and all of the police, I say tonight that you must lay down your weapons and have complete immunity, or in the alternative, face certain death. So, lay down your arms. You will be treated fairly with total immunity, or you will face certain death. Finally, to the great, proud people of Iran, I say tonight that the hour of your freedom is at hand. Stay sheltered, don't leave your home. It's very dangerous outside. Bombs will be dropping everywhere. When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations. For many years, you have asked for America's help, but you never got it. No president was willing to do what I am willing to do tonight. Now you have a president who is giving you what you want. So let's see how you respond. America is backing you with overwhelming strength and devastating force. Now is the time to seize control of your destiny and to unleash the prosperous and glorious future that is close within your reach. This is the moment for action. Do not let it pass. May God bless the brave men and women of America's armed forces. May God bless the United States of America. May God bless you all. Thank you.
a few thoughts on wsop poy 2026
mizrachi would have won if the 2026 formula was being used in 2025 and maybe that was managements motivation in changing the formula. most obvious is more reward for final tables and bracelets less reward for non ft cashing. more reward for field size and buyin but not dramatic imo.
the bigget issue i see with this formula is the point jump from 10th to 9th (making the final table) is larger than the jump from 9th all the way to 3rd creating an artificial bubble between 9/10 that has a financial reward with the 1m giveaway
2026 FORMULA POINTS: $5,000 BUY-IN | 1,000 ENTRIES
RANK | POINTS
1 | 1,064.19
2 | 592.73
3 | 528.50
4 | 484.78
5 | 451.95
6 | 425.83
7 | 404.25
8 | 385.93
9 | 370.06
10 | 178.05
20 | 134.93
50 | 85.72
150 | 39.43
2026 WSOP P.O.Y. FORMULA EXPERIMENT (2025 DATA)
TOP 4 STANDINGS: OLD SYSTEM VS. 2026 FORMULA
Michael Mizrachi 2025: 3,804 2026: 3,395
Shaun Deeb 2025: 4,194 2026: 2,985
Martin Kabrhel 2025 3,639.412026 2026 2,887.50
Benny Glaser 2025: 4,153.662026 2026 2,804.98
TOP 10 EVENT DETAILS (2026 FORMULA)
MICHAEL MIZRACHI (3,395.03)
2,014.43 | #81: $10k Main Event | 1st/9,735
913.38 | #66: $50k PPC | 1st/107
134.16 | #59: $1k Battle of Ages | 25th/3,074
60.34 | #49: $3k 6-Handed NLH | 105th/1,421
57.90 | #1: $1k Mystery Millions | 1044th/19,654
55.95 | #35: $3k NLH Freezeout | 85th/1,027
45.72 | #31: $800 NLH Deepstack | 323rd/4,481
43.75 | #24: $1.5k Bomb Pot | 137th/1,452
37.35 | #34: $1.5k Turbo Bounty | 258th/2,217
32.05 | #54: $1.5k 8-Handed PLO | 219th/1,564
SHAUN DEEB (2,985.46)
1,113.59 | #79: $100k HR PLO | 1st/121
488.15 | #84: $1k NLH | 2nd/1,873
454.79 | #36: $10k PLO8 Champ | 3rd/386
364.42 | #43: $1.5k Razz | 2nd/472
113.54 | #47: $2.5k Mixed O8/S8 | 12th/575
111.28 | #88: $50k HR NLH | 19th/252
100.66 | #14: $25k Mixed PLO/NLH | 17th/245
91.17 | #21: $1.5k PLO8 | 31st/1,176
75.32 | #34: $1.5k Turbo Bounty | 86th/2,217
72.54 | #57: $50k HR PLO | 26th/194
MARTIN KABRHEL (2,887.50)
1,230.80 | #75: $1k Mini Main | 1st/10,794
491.86 | #72: $10k Turbo Bounty | 5th/809
486.17 | #5: $5,000 PLO | 3rd/757
241.43 | #46: $250k Super HR | 7th/63
94.82 | #13: $1.5k NLH 6-Handed | 57th/2,354
82.33 | #97: $1.5k The Closer | 140th/4,297
75.07 | #32: $50,000 HR | 22nd/171
73.01 | #10: $600 NLH Deepstack | 167th/6,090
61.17 | #87: $5,000 Turbo Bounty | 110th/1,283
50.84 | #91: $1.5k PLO 6-Handed | 105th/1,384
BENNY GLASER (2,804.98)
857.79 | #15: $1.5k Mixed PLO8 | 1st/1,239
746.21 | #56: $2.5k Triple Draw | 1st/463
713.71 | #8: $1.5k Dealers Choice | 1st/597
99.56 | #47: $2.5k Mixed O8/S8 | 16th/575
90.90 | #97: $1.5k NLH Closer | 114th/4,297
72.13 | #88: $50,000 HR NLH | 34th/252
68.45 | #87: $5,000 Turbo Bounty | 93rd/1,283
61.10 | #94: $10k 6-Handed Champ | 58th/546
56.81 | #74: $10,000 PLO Champ | 102nd/874
38.32 | #85: $600 Ultra Stack | 602nd/7,057
SHAUN DEEB: 2025 (old) VS. 2026 (new) FORMULA
#79: $100k HR PLO (1st)
Old: 1,359.61 | New: 1,113.59
#84: $1k NLH (2nd)
Old: 532.23 | New: 488.15
#36: $10k PLO8 Champ (3rd)
Old: 527.95 | New: 454.79
Online #12: Monsterstack (2nd)
Old: 497.43 | New: 0.00
#43: $1.5k Razz (2nd)
Old: 471.62 | New: 364.42
#21: $1.5k PLO8 (31st)
Old: 211.45 | New: 91.17
#47: $2.5k Mixed O8/S8 (12th)
Old: 206.26 | New: 113.54
#88: $50k HR NLH (19th)
Old: 136.38 | New: 111.28
#19: $500 Colossus (1036th)
Old: 126.71 | New: 44.59
#14: $25k Mixed PLO/NLH (17th)
Old: 124.46 | New: 100.66
TOTAL: Old 4,194.10 | New 2,985.46
@AllenKessler @yueqizhu
jason lipiner retweeted
Marco Rubio (2016): “For years to come, there are many people on the right...that are going to be having to explain and justify how they fell into this trap of supporting Donald Trump because this is not going to end well.”
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