Looknode retweeted
#BTC #Crpyto 👀👀👀Let’s start with the main point:
We are currently in a bull market consolidation phase. The market is likely to trade sideways for some time as it gathers momentum, but the overarching trend of a long-term steady bull market remains unchanged. What’s notable this time is the remarkable speed of accumulation during this phase.🫣🫣🫣
Historically, we’ve observed that the number of BTC held by long-term holders typically plateaus during consolidation phases. About six months after these plateaus end, the market often reaches a new high before undergoing a correction and entering a temporary adjustment period.
In previous analyses(teapawt.net/SkandinavienM/status/1…), we explored the potential movements of smart money through the lens of long-term holder supply. This time, we’ll dive deeper into the relationship between long-term holder balances and BTC price trends. As shown in the chart below, there’s a clear inverse correlation between BTC prices and the holdings of long-term holders over extended periods.
When a new bull market begins, some long-term holders tend to sell their BTC to lock in profits, creating consistent selling pressure. Over time, as the market supply-demand dynamics reach equilibrium, the market evolves in one of two directions:
1. 🚩🚩🚩Consolidation Phase: The market enters a sideways trading period where the primary market participants shift to short-term holders. During this phase, long-term holders have a diminishing influence on the market, while the tug-of-war between short-term bulls and bears leads to a period of volatility. The length and outcome of this consolidation depend on market fundamentals and the flow of external capital.
2. 🚩🚩🚩Next Bull Phase: If the market absorbs the selling pressure and buying interest continues to build, the market transitions into the next leg of the bull run.
Analyzing Current Trends
Since the beginning of 2025, the balance of BTC held by long-term holders has stabilized, marking the first consolidation phase of the current bull market (which began in September last year). Recently, the U.S. government announced its intention to sell confiscated BTC, triggering panic selling as many rushed to lock in profits. This abrupt shift reversed the previous market recovery momentum, causing a short-term pullback.
However, despite this bearish news, the market has demonstrated impressive resilience. The overall trend remains strong, suggesting that the consolidation phase is setting the stage for future growth.
Final Thoughts🧐🧐🧐
Hold onto your BTC. One day, you’ll look back and realize that buying BTC at just over $90,000 wasn’t as expensive as it seemed. The best is yet to come!
🙏🙏🙏Stay calm; the rebound is just around the corner. This is a steady bull run.👅👅👅
Someone recently asked me about the future price trends of BTC. We can uncover some clues by analyzing on-chain data.
The indicator I recommend here is the holdings of long-term holders. Long-term holders refer to BTC (or UTXOs) that haven’t been traded for over 155 days. In today’s market, short-term holders often trade frequently and are easily swayed by external sentiment. On the other hand, long-term holders are usually considered “smart money” or institutions. Their buy and sell decisions often reflect the market’s future direction and underlying sentiment.
Looking at the chart, we can see that long-term holders’ balances have been steadily declining since early October 2024, suggesting they have been selling off their holdings to lock in profits. Typically, in the early stages of a bull market, long-term holders gradually sell their BTC to take profits.
🧐🧐🧐As the market continues to rise, selling pressure increases. When the forces of supply and demand reach equilibrium, the market enters a consolidation phase. During this period, long-term holders tend to hold onto their remaining BTC, and more participants begin to accumulate. This pattern often continues until the next bull market kicks off.
In just two months, long-term holders’ balances have dropped from 16.2 million BTC to 14.6 million BTC. This absolute decline in both magnitude and speed exceeds the sell-off we observed between January and April of 2024. It’s well known that prices are determined by supply and demand. If there’s continuous selling pressure, prices will inevitably decline. However, in this cycle, the speed of sell-offs by long-term holders has already surpassed the earlier phase of 2024, during which BTC prices rose from $40,000 to $60,000—a critical consolidation level where prices fluctuated for some time before eventually rebounding.
From this perspective, the BTC bottom for long-term holders appears to be around 14.6 million BTC. Based on this analysis, the market is likely to experience a rebound soon.
From late October 2024 to early January 2025, the UTXO difference chart reveals that almost every price range has seen selling activity, particularly between $67,000 and$71,000. Moving forward, selling pressure is expected to continue declining. Sometimes, continuous sharp rallies are not necessarily healthy for the market. A consolidation phase is often needed to alleviate selling pressure and stabilize the market, just like what we are observing now.
🫣🫣🫣
Looknode retweeted
VanEck just filed 8-A form for spot Eth, which is just part of process, but.. should be noted that they filed their 8-A for spot bitcoin exactly 7 days before launch. Good sign for our July 2nd over/under (7 days from now). But again, anything poss. Sure we'll hear more soon..
New 8-A12B filing: VanEck Ethereum Trust (0001860788) (Filer)
Registration of securities [Section 12(b)]
Accepted Date: 2024-06-25T13:26:31.000Z | Filing Date: 2024-06-25
Document: sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/… | $ETH
Looknode retweeted
前几天我们探讨了把STH-MVRV作为在牛市进程中寻找上车机会的参考依据的必要性。而我们无法忽视另外一个重要的指标，同样可作为牛市中途发现机会的有效依据。它便是“短期持有者亏损百分比”（STH Percent Supply in Loss，简称STH-PSIL）
我们从上图1（2016-2018）和图2（2020-2021）即前2轮牛市周期中可以看到，每当短期持有者处于亏损状态的 #BTC 的百分比（STH-PSIL）接近甚至超过60%时，就是阶段性的底部区区间。而图1中的2016.08、2017.03、2017.07，以及图2中的2020.9这4次时间，对应的STH-MVRV数值也恰好是接近1甚至低于1的时候。
在今年 #BTC 现货ETF通过后，STH-PSIL共出现过2次高于60%的时候，第1次是2024年1月22日，STH-PSIL：61.2%；第2次是2024年4月17日，STH-PSIL：61.9%（如上图1）；而这2天对应的STH-MVRV数值分别是1.03和1.04，非常接近1（如上图2黄色箭头处）。
通过以上分析和比对，似乎得出了这样的结论：在牛市进程中，我们可以将STH-PSIL和STH-MVRV既用来独立观察，又需要结合比对。如果STH-PSIL高于60%的同时，STH-MVRV又非常接近1甚至低于1，便更能印证此处是一个较为安全的入场位置。
至于其背后的逻辑，小伙伴们可以根据上一篇关于STH-MVRV教学偏的内容自己总结思考一下短期持有者在牛市过程中的行为特点，此处我就不在累述。链接如下：
昨天有小伙伴给我留言，希望我能预测这次回调的能到的点位。实话说我没这个本事，如果一定要预测，我想命中的概率应该和大家差不多，各自50%罢了。
因为我们只有当事件发生并产生数据后，通过数据的趋势，背后的逻辑去分析判断这个位置是否是比较有性价比。在没有数据的前提下去预测未来，那和开盲盒没啥区别。
但是，我可以给大家几个参考依据，越接近这些数据标准的位置，性价比越高。
参考一、短期持有者平均成本线
如图1所示，在牛市的整个进程中，每当 #BTC 的价格低于图中红线 STH Realized Price（即短期持有者平均持仓成本），那就是极佳的上车位置。但是牛市中往往会很多资金等着接便宜的筹码，大家都学会了抢跑，因此你会发现有的时候等不到价格低于红线，接近红线或许也是最佳买点。截止到3月15日，STH Realized Price的价格是54000美元左右。
参考二、短期持有者亏损中的百分比
同样，在牛市的整个进程中，每一次回调都会造成短期持有者的大面积亏损。通过观察我们发现，当亏损百分比达到甚至超过60%时，都是加仓的机会（如图2）。例如在1月22日 #BTC 价格从46900回调到39000时，短期持有者亏损中的百分比刚好达到61%。而当前截止3月15日该数值是26.5%。
当然，如果你怕等不到这样位置，也完全可以分批次挂单，比如每跌10%挂一笔单子。我始终认为，健康的回调是牛市持续推进的必要条件。昨天看到有不少小伙伴私信我，非常焦虑，甚至恐慌，我觉得完全没必要。这样的回调无论从什么指标上看都不算剧烈；况且只有回调才有加仓的机会，才能更好的上涨，只要你持有的不是高杠杆，在大趋势不变的前提下完全可以无视这样的小风浪。
Looknode retweeted
Piyasaya kısa vadeli bakanları için, LTH biraz daha fazla "kar al" yapabilir önümüzdeki günlerde.. Kesin gelecek diyemeyiz çünkü Etf tarafında talep var, ancak kısa vadecilerin temkinli olması önemli.
#Bitcoin
Looknode retweeted
Long-term holder's net position change.
The chart below shows a recent trend of long-term Bitcoin holders adjusting their positions, which seems to have coincided with the recent price decline. This could be an opportunity for new investors to enter the market and acquire some Bitcoin at a lower price point.
Looknode retweeted
You must have no single point of failure in crypto.
Never let 1 trade wipe you out.
Never let 1 exchange going down wipe you out.
Never let 1 wallet/computer/ account getting hacked wipe you out.
Looknode retweeted
(PS:点进图片右上角-以4k加载可以查看更清晰原图）
短期持有者持仓变化（Short-Term Holder Position Change）用来追踪持仓时间≤155天的BTC每天的数量变化。
#Btc #BrandedFeatures #比特币 #Bitcoin $tip @tipcoineth #Metamask #币圈 #数字货币
Looknode retweeted
The total amount of stablecoins in circulation (including USDT, USDC, BUSD and DAI) 🔥🔥🔥
Looknode retweeted
#Bitcoin dominance has been trending higher all year.
The lower part of this channel is currently 52%.
The upper part of this channel is currently 57%.
Looknode retweeted
Çok önemli yerleri geçtik, çoğu yatırımcı karda, yükseliş için çok bir engel olmamasına rağmen, kar satışlarının mutlaka geleceğini unutmayalım.
