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Joined January 2022
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dex 💫 retweeted
"Prediction markets reflect local knowledge of elections offered up not just by the politically knowledgeable and interested, but those willing to back their knowledge and viewpoints with their own money. Opinions are cheap, while knowledge backed by money is expensive. From money, crucial market signals emerge. Gambling this is not," writes @johntamny in @Forbes: forbes.com/sites/johntamny/2…
instead of the sportsbook setting the odds, prediction markets let buyers and sellers determine prices based on what they think will happen
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dex 💫 retweeted
One of the beautiful things about prediction markets is that if you're just really good at your thing, it doesn't matter at all who you are, you can make money.
All that matters is being right.
What type of people are successful on Kalshi?
We commissioned an independent third party to study our top traders. Here’s what they found:
Top traders are not limited to privileged or financial backgrounds.
-79% went to public school
-They are over 2x as likely to have worked retail or service jobs than on Wall Street
-65% are self-taught
The majority of top traders: :
-Actively seek out primary documents for research
-Actively seek out conflicting sources to challenge their beliefs
-Outperform the public on numeracy tests
The findings echo the foundational work of Philip Tetlock: the best forecasters are not subject matter experts. They tend to be otherwise-ordinary people who are intellectually humble, willing to do research, and think probabilistically instead of emotionally.
