Put high level public servants on base rate pay plus bonus structures for delivery. Significant penalties for failures of this nature.
Nothing will change. Listen to the RNZ mess. It's the same old story - "accept responsibility", "reviews", "lessons learned going forward".....blah blah blah
Words.
Empty.
Words.
Nothing.
Changes.
Ever.
If National get back in, it's time for them to do what they should have done three years ago.
Remove all funding and encourage a user-subscriber model. If lefties want left media, they can pay for it themselves.
rnz.co.nz/news/business/2466…
45
"By twelve most of us were in bed. Classic Luxon; missing the mark and failing to read the room."
Oblivious.
stuff.co.nz/politics/3610565…
Against the preliminary results, the model did pretty well. This model's average prediction was 0.61 percentage points away from the preliminary election result.
All but Maori Party were within indicative range - which may change on finals.
Smallest error was TOP, biggest error was National.
Not sure there was much advantage in this model vs simply averaging the polls, but something to work on for next time.
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Final NZ Poll of Polls
Labour 29.43%
National 27.63%
Greens 14.55%
ACT 10.05%
NZ First 9.99%
Top 6.01%
Maori 1.37%
Other 0.97%
These are the final estimates from my polling model combining the major NZ polls and adjusting for recency, sample size and pollster reliability.
Below, I've added ranges which indicate the variation around each estimate. They incorporate polling uncertainty and historical results, but aren't calibrated confidence intervals.
The idea has been to see whether we could build a model more accurate than the individual polls produced by the major NZ pollsters.
What will happen on election night?
I don't know.
Prediction makes fools of us all. Especially me.
I'm more interested in whether we have identified a genuine signal or merely built a random number generator.
But whatever happens, I think we can all agree that rugby will be the winner on the day.
Methodology: Rather than just averaging the polls, I used a recency-weighted model, accounting for sample size, historical pollster accuracy, potential bias and demographic turnout effects. I also experimented with some half-arsed Bayesian adjustments using a few previous election results. Some stats, a little psychology, some guesses, the ground-up toenails of a backbencher and a few boxes of Panhead.
Finally, I've estimated the indicative ranges as a get-out-of-jail-free card.
Thanks for following :)
Updated my poll to include the Roy Morgan results:
Labour 29.12%
National 27.95%
Greens 14.93%
ACT 9.97%
NZ First 9.71%
TOP 6.16%
Maori 1.29%
Other 0.86%
I combine multiple polls and adjust for previous pollster performance, recency, sample size and historical error. These are tested against previous election results.
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Updated my poll to include the Curia results:
Labour 29.08%
National 28.16%
Greens 14.92%
ACT 9.92%
NZ First 9.70%
Opportunity 6.03%
Maori 1.33%
Other 0.86%
I combine multiple polls and adjust for previous pollster performance, recency, sample size and historical error. These are tested against previous election results.
Updated my poll to include the Verian results:
Labour 29.20%
National 27.96%
Greens 14.89%
NZ First 9.94%
ACT 9.65%
TOP 5.96%
Maori 1.42%
Other 0.98%
I combine multiple polls and adjust for previous pollster performance, recency, sample size and historical error. These are tested against previous election results.
Updated my poll to include the RNZ results:
Labour 28.79%
National 27.54%
Greens 14.52%
NZ First 10.58%
ACT 10.21%
TOP 6.03%
Maori 1.42%
Other 0.91%
I combine multiple polls and adjust for previous pollster performance, recency, sample size and historical error. These are tested against previous election results.
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749
Updated my poll to include the Verian results:
Labour 28.53%
National 28.11%
Greens 14.56%
NZ First 10.78%
ACT 10.09%
TOP 5.63%
Maori 1.35%
Other 0.95%
I combine multiple polls and adjust for previous pollster performance, recency, sample size and historical error. These are tested against previous election results.
Communists are dangerously stupid
WARNING: You will lose IQ points if you watch this.
These are the economically illiterate rubes who Mamdani has hoodwinked and are pushing socialism. "I'm a Dior bag socialist" and she says there's enough wealth in this country where nobody should have to live in poverty, but it's being hoarded by 10 guys.
The combined wealth of the 10 richest guys in America is $3 trillion...now keep in mind, kids, they don't have that in cash. That's the combined value of all their businesses. If you were to seize 100% of all their assets, you'd have to compel the sale of all of their stock and their entire businesses. You wouldn't eve be able to get the full $3T because the forced sale of their stock and businesses would crash the entire market and you would only get pennies on the dollar. Not only that, by seizing the means of production, you've now decimated businesses that employ 2 million people...these are taxpayers. Those businesses generate wealth and tax revenue, every year, in perpetuity...if you wipe them out, you collapse the entire economy and all the tax revenue required to fund all your social services.
But even in this imaginary Mamdani world, if you were to somehow seize $3T, that might sound like a lot, but that would only fund government for 5 months. That's it. Then it's gone forever, and all the annual wealth and revenue that their businesses create would be gone, causing a cascading collapse of tax revenue that would make the entire government go belly up. Even if you were to distribute that $3T as direct cash payments to every American, you know how much that would give you? $8,900. That's it. 4 months rent, at the expense of wiping out the entire American economy.
When I tell you these communists are stupid...I mean, they are dangerously stupid. They are truly like children; they fundamentally lack any understanding of how things work, so they can LARP as adults in this fantasyland of free everything.
And listen to what she says at the end...it perfectly sums up everything wrong with these socialists: "I'm not a political scientist, so if that's wrong, I don't care"
I can't stand these people. They are going to destroy our civilization.
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Updated my poll to include the Verian results:
National: 28.8%
Labour: 28.5%
Greens: 14.8%
NZ First: 10.3%
ACT: 9.6%
TOP: 5.8%
Maori: 1.6%
Other: 0.6%
I combine multiple polls and adjust for previous pollster performance, recency, sample size and historical error. These are tested against previous election results.
Updated my poll to include the Post/Freshwater Strategy poll results:
Labour 28.8%
National 27.8%
Greens 14.6%
NZ First 10.9%
ACT 9.3%
Opportunity 5.9%
Maori 1.6%
Other 1.1%
I combine multiple polls and adjust for previous pollster performance, recency, sample size and historical error. These are tested against previous election results.
Updated my poll to include the Anacta poll results:
Labour 28.5%
National 27.8%
Greens 14.6%
NZ First 10.8%
ACT 9.4%
TOP 6.1%
Maori 1.5%
Other 1.3%
I combine multiple polls and adjust for previous pollster performance, recency, sample size and historical error. These are tested against previous election results.
