🌎 EL NIÑO 2026 VS. 1997: IT’S NOT JUST HOW STRONG, BUT WHERE! We know this year’s El Niño is exceptionally strong. But there is something else that has caught my attention, and it may be important as we head toward winter. The location of the unusually warm water could be just as interesting as the actual temperatures. Take a look at these two ocean-height maps comparing October 1997 with October 2026. 🌡️ FIRST, THE NUMBERS El Niño is measured using ocean temperature anomalies, or how much warmer the water is compared to average. TWO REGIONS (marked on the globes) are particularly important: 🔸 Niño 3.4: The most commonly used region for measuring El Niño strength. 🔸 Niño 1+2: The easternmost region, just off the coast of South America. Recent October 2026 weekly measurements show: 🔥 Niño 3.4: +3.3°C (+5.9°F) 🔥 Niño 1+2: +5.2°C (+9.4°F) These are extraordinary anomalies, especially in the eastern Pacific. The numbers are SST anomalies, while the accompanying maps show sea surface HEIGHT anomalies. The elevated ocean levels are associated with warmer water and changes in ocean circulation. 👀 🌎 NOW LOOK FARTHER NORTH! ‼️ This is the feature that really caught my attention. Compare the two globes, especially the area west of Mexico and Baja California. 👉🏻Notice the extensive area of elevated sea levels extending farther north in 2026. This feature is outside the traditional El Niño monitoring regions, but it could be relevant to the larger Pacific weather pattern. 🌀 REMEMBER THE EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANES? We’ve already experienced an unusually active eastern Pacific hurricane season. Several tropical systems have affected Mexico, with tropical moisture reaching the southwestern United States. Hurricane Polo was one example in September. It crossed Baja California, made another landfall in mainland Mexico, and helped transport tropical moisture into the Southwest. This doesn’t mean the elevated ocean levels caused those storms. But the location of these ocean anomalies is something worth investigating alongside this season’s tropical activity. 🌧️ WHY THIS INTERESTS ME FOR WINTER El Niño influences the tropical Pacific atmosphere, including where large clusters of thunderstorms develop. That tropical convection can influence the jet stream thousands of miles away. During many strong El Niño winters, the southern branch of the jet stream becomes more active, bringing Pacific storms across the southern United States. But what if the strongest tropical convection develops farther east or north than during other major El Niño events? Could that alter the position or strength of the southern storm track? That is the question I’m exploring. ❄️ WHAT ABOUT SNOW IN MARYLAND? A more active southern storm track can provide moisture for East Coast winter storms. But moisture alone doesn’t produce snow. We still need the right combination of cold air, storm timing, and atmospheric blocking. That is why I’m also watching the polar vortex, the North Atlantic pattern, and other factors that can influence winter temperatures. 📌 MY TAKEAWAY The extraordinary strength of this El Niño is getting plenty of attention. But I’m particularly interested in WHERE the ocean anomalies are located and how the atmosphere responds. The unusual feature farther north, near Mexico, adds another piece to the puzzle. It doesn’t guarantee a particular winter outcome, but it gives us something important to investigate as I continue preparing my full Winter Outlook. More to come! ❄️ Faith in the Flakes! #ElNino #weather #winteroutlook #FITF