Independent investment research Macro + Value | By @albertrjf Read by thousands of serious investors Free weekly macro + stock theses ↓

Wherever value still hides
Joined June 2022
📈 LWS Financial Research's Model Portfolio continues to outperform the S&P 500, both in 2026 and since its inception in September 2022. As of October 16, 2026, the portfolio has delivered a 34.9% year-to-date return, compared with 17.85% for the S&P 500 Total Return Index in euros, outperforming the benchmark by 17.05 percentage points. Since September 2022, the Model Portfolio has gained 247.7%, versus 77.1% for the S&P 500, representing 170.6 percentage points of cumulative outperformance. The investment philosophy behind these results is straightforward: buy assets below their intrinsic value and remain patient until the market recognizes that value. Simple in principle, difficult in practice. Source: LWS Financial Research, @albertrjf. #ValueInvesting #PortfolioPerformance #SP500
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🛢️ The U.S. government received its first shipment of Venezuelan crude oil under an agreement signed with producer NABEP in August, with the cargo delivered at no cost, according to a White House official cited by Reuters. The shipment is expected to be sold to refineries operated by Exxon Mobil $XOM and Venezuelan-owned Citgo Petroleum. The official confirmed that Washington received the initial cargo free of charge, although the shipment's volume and commercial value were not disclosed. Under the previously announced agreement, NABEP granted the U.S. State Department the right to purchase a guaranteed 20% of production from all existing and future fields operated by the company at production cost. The first shipment marks the initial delivery under the August arrangement between NABEP and the U.S. government. #Venezuela #OilMarkets #ExxonMobil
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🛢️ Baker Hughes $BKR reported a sharp decline in third-quarter earnings as the prolonged conflict in the Middle East weighed on demand for oilfield services and equipment. Net income fell to $411 million, or $0.41 per share, compared with $609 million, or $0.61 per share, a year earlier, representing a decline of approximately 32.5%. The eight-month conflict in the Middle East has disrupted oilfield activity, delayed project decisions and pressured industry margins, while uncertainty over future customer spending continues to affect service providers. Revenue from the Middle East and Asia declined to $1.26 billion from $1.45 billion a year earlier, a decrease of approximately 13.1%. In North America, revenue slipped to $955 million from $980 million, representing a 2.6% year-over-year decline. Beyond geopolitical disruptions, oilfield service companies continue to face moderate demand as producers adopt more efficient extraction technologies, while abundant crude oil and natural gas supplies reduce the need for additional drilling. #BakerHughes #OilfieldServices #Energy
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⛏️ Peru's Antamina copper mine has announced a precautionary suspension of operations following the death of a worker at its Yanacancha facilities in the Ancash region. Antamina, one of Peru's largest copper producers, is jointly owned by mining giants Glencore $GLEN and BHP $BHP. The company confirmed that an investigation has been launched into the fatal incident, while operations remain suspended as a preventive measure. Antamina has not disclosed when mining activities are expected to resume. #Copper #Peru #Mining
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⛏️ Freeport-McMoRan $FCX beat Wall Street's third-quarter earnings expectations as sharply higher copper prices helped offset declining production volumes. The world's largest publicly traded copper producer reported adjusted earnings of $0.88 per share, exceeding analysts' consensus estimate of $0.81 per share, according to LSEG data. Average copper prices increased 43% year over year, supported by supply concerns and signs of resilient demand from China, the world's largest copper consumer. Freeport's average realized copper price reached $6.54 per pound, compared with $4.68 per pound in the same quarter last year. However, copper production declined to 832 million pounds from 912 million pounds a year earlier, representing an approximately 8.8% decrease. The earnings beat reflects the impact of stronger copper pricing, which more than compensated for lower production during the quarter ended September 30. #FreeportMcMoRan #Copper #Mining
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📈 Citi has upgraded MercadoLibre $MELI from Neutral to Buy, assigning a $2,050 price target, as analyst João Pedro Soares views the stock's recent weakness as an attractive entry point. Citi expects MercadoLibre's growth to outpace its local consumer markets, supporting the bank's more positive outlook on the Latin American e-commerce and fintech company. The analyst also highlighted competitive dynamics in Brazil, where high interest rates are limiting competitors' ability to invest aggressively. Meanwhile, Sea Limited $SE, the parent company of Shopee, appears to be redirecting some investment toward cloud infrastructure. However, Citi cautioned that further market-share gains could require increased spending, potentially putting pressure on MercadoLibre's profit margins. #MercadoLibre #MELI #Ecommerce
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📈PayPal Holdings $PYPL 💰Results💰 Q'26 Financial Results • Net revenues increased 2% to $8.6 billion; 1% currency-neutral (“FXN”). • Transaction margin dollars1 (“TM$”) increased 2% to $4.0 billion; TM$ excluding interest on customer balances1,2 increased 3% to $3.7 billion. • GAAP operating income decreased 8% to $1.4 billion; non-GAAP operating income increased 3% to $1.6 billion. • GAAP operating margin contracted 173 basis points to 16.3%; non-GAAP operating margin expanded 16 basis points to 18.8%. • GAAP EPS decreased 4% to $1.253 ; non-GAAP EPS increased 8% to $1.45. 3Q'26 Operating Results • Total payment volume (“TPV”) increased 6% to $487.1 billion; 7% FXN. • Payment transactions increased 7% to 6.8 billion. Excluding payment service provider transactions4 (“PSP”), payment transactions increased 7%. • Payment transactions per active account (“TPA”) on a trailing 12-month basis increased 6% to 60.8. TPA ex-PSP4 increased 6%. • Active accounts increased 0.6% to 440 million. On a sequential basis, active accounts increased by 0.4%, or by 1.6 million. Cash Flow • Cash flow from operations of $1.6 billion and free cash flow of $1.4 billion. • Adjusted free cash flow of $2.0 billion, which excludes the net timing impact between originating buy now, pay later (“BNPL”) receivables as held for sale and the subsequent repayment and sale of those receivables. Balance Sheet and Liquidity • Cash, cash equivalents, and investments totaled $15.1 billion as of September 30, 2026. • Debt totaled $13.5 billion as of September 30, 2026. • Returned $1.5 billion to stockholders by repurchasing approximately 28 million shares of common stock in 3Q'26. ◦ On a trailing 12-month basis, returned $6.0 billion to stockholders by repurchasing approximately 117 million shares of common stock. Dividend Program • PayPal’s Board of Directors declared a cash dividend of $0.14 per share on the Company’s common stock, payable on December 24, 2026, to stockholders of record as of the close of business on December 4, 2026.
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🛢️ TotalEnergies $TTE has completed the sale of its 10% non-operated interest in Nigeria's Renaissance joint venture licenses to Vaaris for $800 million. The transaction covers TotalEnergies' interest in the Renaissance joint venture, while the company retains its full economic interest in three gas licenses: OML 23, OML 28 and OML 77. These gas assets are strategically important to Nigeria's energy sector, supplying approximately 50% of the natural gas used by Nigeria LNG. The completed divestment allows TotalEnergies to exit the interests included in the sale while maintaining its economic exposure to the three gas licenses. #TotalEnergies #Nigeria #NaturalGas
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🔥 Timor-Leste has agreed to acquire Woodside Energy's $WDS 33% operating stake in the Greater Sunrise gas project for up to $200 million, paving the way for its state-owned company, Timor Gap, to take full ownership of one of the country's most important undeveloped energy resources. Greater Sunrise is estimated to contain 5.1 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and 226 million barrels of condensate. The fields were discovered in 1974 but have remained undeveloped for decades amid maritime boundary disputes and disagreements over where the gas should be processed. The central dispute involved whether Greater Sunrise gas should be transported to an existing LNG facility in Darwin, Australia, or processed at a new LNG plant on Timor-Leste's southern coast. Timor-Leste is pursuing a proposed LNG development with an annual production capacity of 5 million tonnes, although the earliest expected production date has been pushed back to 2034. The project's capital requirements remain substantial. A 2022 study reported by the Australian Financial Review estimated that developing Greater Sunrise with an LNG facility in Timor-Leste could cost approximately $14.1 billion, although no updated official cost estimate has been released. The development is particularly important for Timor-Leste, whose economy depends heavily on petroleum revenues. Its sovereign petroleum fund held approximately $18.9 billion in June 2026, accumulated largely from a gas field that has since been depleted. Under the agreement, most of the $200 million payment to Woodside will not become due until Timor Gap sells its first LNG cargo. The transaction is expected to close in the first half of 2027. Timor Gap also agreed in September to acquire Osaka Gas's $9532 remaining 10% interest, following its earlier purchase of stakes held by ConocoPhillips $COP and Shell $SHEL for a combined $650 million in 2018. To finance the multibillion-dollar development, Timor-Leste has indicated that it may eventually bring in new investment partners. President José Ramos-Horta has previously acknowledged interest from Chinese companies, a possibility that analysts say could raise strategic concerns in Australia. #LNG #NaturalGas #TimorLeste
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⛏️ Energy Fuels $UUUU ($EFR) has secured conditional credit approval for up to A$180 million from Export Finance Australia and the National Reconstruction Fund Corporation, supporting the development of Phase 1 of its Donald rare earths and mineral sands project in Australia. The government-backed financing forms part of a proposed A$200 million senior debt facility intended to fund construction and commissioning. The financing remains subject to definitive agreements and customary closing conditions. Energy Fuels is targeting a final investment decision by the end of 2026, with Phase 1 expected to produce approximately 9,000 tonnes annually of rare earth element concentrate (REEC). The project is also expected to support the production of approximately 1,000 tonnes per year of neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) oxide, a critical material used in high-performance permanent magnets. The proposed financing carries a 10-year term, with interest linked to the Australian Bank Bill Swap Rate (BBSY) plus an applicable margin. The A$180 million commitment represents conditional financing approval rather than completed funding, with final documentation and closing requirements still outstanding. #RareEarths #EnergyFuels #CriticalMinerals
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🛢️ Marathon Petroleum $MPC reported an operational malfunction at its 631,000-barrel-per-day Galveston Bay refinery in Texas, according to a regulatory filing submitted Monday to the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality. The incident occurred on October 22, when a compressor shutdown caused a process unit upset and subsequent gas flaring. The refinery restarted the compressor and restored the affected unit to normal operations on the same day, according to the filing. #MarathonPetroleum #OilRefining #Energy
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🛢️ Oil options markets are signaling growing concerns over Middle East supply disruptions, even as near-term physical market tightness shows signs of easing. WTI crude oil options skew toward calls has climbed to +7.2%, its highest level since September 10, reflecting increased demand for protection against potential oil price increases. The shift comes amid escalating regional tensions, with Houthi attacks targeting Saudi oil infrastructure and shipping routes, raising concerns about possible disruptions to crude supplies. Meanwhile, WTI's spread between the first and second monthly contracts has narrowed from $5.40 to $2.30 per barrel, indicating weaker near-term backwardation and reduced immediate tightness in the physical oil market. The divergence highlights two simultaneous developments: options traders are paying more for upside oil price protection, while the futures curve suggests that near-term supply pressures have moderated. #OilMarkets #WTI #MiddleEast
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🛢️ ConocoPhillips $COP has informed employees of planned workforce reductions in Canada, affecting both employees and contractors, according to a company spokesperson. The layoffs are scheduled to take place on Tuesday, October 27, although the company has not disclosed how many positions will be eliminated. ConocoPhillips, headquartered in Houston, employed approximately 9,900 people worldwide, according to its 2025 annual report. The announcement follows a broader restructuring program introduced last year, when the company outlined plans to reduce its global workforce by 20% to 25% as part of efforts to streamline operations and lower costs following its acquisition of Marathon Oil. The company previously indicated that the restructuring would be completed in 2026. A spokesperson said ConocoPhillips regularly reviews its organizational structure to align operations with its long-term strategy, improve efficiency and maintain flexibility for future opportunities. ConocoPhillips shares traded slightly higher during Monday's afternoon session. #ConocoPhillips #OilAndGas #Canada
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🛢️ Petrobras CEO Magda Chambriard dismissed the sharp decline in the Brazilian state-controlled oil company's shares following President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's reelection as a speculative market reaction, arguing that the selloff does not reflect the company's fundamentals. Petrobras $PBR shares fell approximately 10% in São Paulo trading after Lula defeated right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in Sunday's presidential runoff, securing a fourth nonconsecutive term despite pre-election polling expectations. Speaking to Reuters, Chambriard emphasized that Petrobras remains financially and operationally strong, supported by a robust investment portfolio, and said the company would not be distracted by short-term market fluctuations. She also described the share-price decline as a potential buying opportunity, saying she regretted being unable to purchase Petrobras shares herself. #Petrobras #Brazil #OilAndGas
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🛢️ U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventories have fallen to 282.6 million barrels, their lowest level since October 1982, according to the latest data from the Department of Energy. The decline comes as the United States continues releasing crude oil under an agreement to draw 172 million barrels from its emergency petroleum reserves. Separately, the Department of Energy announced last week that it had authorized an emergency exchange of up to 400,000 barrels of crude oil from the SPR to address a supply disruption affecting Phillips 66's $PSX refinery in Lake Charles, Louisiana. #Oil #StrategicPetroleumReserve #EnergySecurity
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🛢️ Italy's Eni $ENI has completed the sale of its Nigerian subsidiary Agip Energy and Natural Resources (AENR) to Nigerian energy company APEX, continuing its strategy of divesting oil and gas assets considered non-core. AENR operates in onshore and shallow-water hydrocarbon exploration and production in Nigeria and holds a 5% interest in the Renaissance joint venture, alongside partners including TotalEnergies $TTE and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company. The buyer, APEX, is wholly owned by Sterling, one of Nigeria's leading onshore oil operators. The transaction forms part of Eni's broader portfolio optimization strategy, focused on exiting assets that no longer align with its strategic priorities. Lazard $LAZ served as Eni's financial adviser on the sale. Separately, Shell $SHEL announced earlier this month that it would sell its domestic gas business in Nigeria to Vaaris Energy, marking another divestment by a major international energy company in the country. #Eni #Nigeria #OilAndGas
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⛏️ Chile's state-owned copper producer Codelco and mining giant BHP $BHP have signed an agreement to begin exploration at the Anillo mining project in northern Chile's Antofagasta region. Under the agreement, BHP may invest up to $40 million to explore the mining concessions and evaluate their mineral potential. The contract was signed during London Metal Exchange Week 2026, following the completion of the legal authorizations required to grant rights over Codelco mining concessions that are not part of currently operating deposits. The exploration partnership was initially announced in 2025 and has now formally advanced to the contractual stage. #Copper #BHP #Chile
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🔥 EQT Corporation $EQT has announced an agreement to acquire Range Resources $RRC in an all-stock transaction valued at more than $50 billion, creating what the companies describe as the largest vertically integrated natural gas producer in the United States. Under the terms of the agreement, Range Resources shareholders will receive 0.987 EQT shares for each Range share held. Following completion, existing EQT shareholders will own approximately 73% of the combined company, while Range Resources shareholders will hold the remaining 27%. The transaction is expected to close in the first quarter of 2027, subject to regulatory approvals and shareholder authorization. #NaturalGas #EQT #EnergyMergers
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🥇 Gold climbed back above $4,000 per ounce on Monday as falling oil prices eased some inflation concerns ahead of this week's Federal Reserve policy meeting. Spot gold rose 0.5% to $4,014.49 per ounce, recovering from Friday's low of $3,975, its weakest level since July 20. U.S. gold futures for December delivery also gained 0.5%, reaching $4,028.40. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo noted that some investors view the $4,000 level as a buying opportunity, with technical factors potentially supporting renewed demand. Brent crude futures declined 2% to approximately $114 per barrel, retreating from last week's six-month high. Lower energy prices helped reduce immediate inflation concerns, providing support for gold. However, expectations of further interest rate increases continue to limit gold's upside. According to CME FedWatch, traders assign just a 9% probability to a Fed rate hike this Wednesday, but an 80% probability of an increase in December. Higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold. The European Central Bank and Bank of Japan are also expected to leave rates unchanged this week, although both could retain the option of tightening monetary policy in December. Investors are additionally awaiting U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data on October 29, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, for further indications of price pressures. Among other precious metals, silver rose 0.2% to $53.99 per ounce, while platinum declined 0.3% to $1,547 and palladium slipped 0.1% to $1,043.47. #Gold #FederalReserve #PreciousMetals
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🛢️ Saudi Arabia plans to store crude oil in Singapore's underground Jurong Rock Caverns starting in the second half of 2027, strengthening energy supply security across Southeast Asia following disruptions caused by the Iran war. The initiative comes after the conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran severely disrupted oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Before the war, Asia sourced approximately two-thirds of its oil imports from the Middle East, leaving the region highly exposed to supply interruptions. Saudi Aramco $2222 is expected to sign a memorandum of understanding with Singapore's Energy Market Authority and JTC Corporation, with negotiations targeted for completion within the next few months. Located approximately 150 meters underground, the Jurong Rock Caverns have a total storage capacity of 1.47 million cubic meters, equivalent to roughly 9 million barrels of liquid hydrocarbons, including crude oil and condensate. The volume Saudi Aramco would specifically store has not yet been disclosed. Saudi Aramco already maintains strategic crude inventories in Japan and South Korea. Its storage arrangement in Okinawa, Japan, was expanded to 8.2 million barrels in 2017, while a separate agreement signed in 2023 provided for 5.3 million barrels of storage in Ulsan, South Korea, over five years. Under those arrangements, the host countries receive priority access to stored Saudi crude during unexpected supply shortages. Meanwhile, Japan is pursuing broader regional oil stockpiling agreements through its POWERR Asia initiative, backed by $10 billion in financial support. Although China, Japan and South Korea maintain substantial petroleum reserves, many other Asian economies have significantly smaller buffers against supply disruptions. #SaudiAramco #OilMarkets #EnergySecurity
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🧪 ASP Isotopes $ASPI announced that Renergen’s Virginia Gas Project in South Africa has completed commissioning and achieved stable liquid helium production, marking a major operational milestone for the company. Tetra4 Proprietary Limited, a subsidiary of Renergen, has begun accumulating liquid helium in cryogenic storage facilities ahead of its first deliveries under existing offtake agreements. The Virginia Gas Project is South Africa’s first integrated producer of liquid helium and liquefied natural gas (LNG) and holds the country’s first onshore petroleum production right. According to CEO Paul Mann, the company is now ramping up production toward nameplate capacity, which it expects to reach during Q4 2026, while finalizing logistics with customers for initial helium deliveries. Phase 1 is designed to produce approximately 70,000 cubic feet of liquid helium per day and 2,500 gigajoules of LNG per day. These figures represent expected production capacity rather than volumes already achieved. The announcement confirms stable helium production, although initial commercial deliveries and full-capacity operations remain pending. #ASPIsotopes #Helium #SouthAfrica
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