@macromule

Research Analyst @River Author of https://xitter.cf/t.co/eNXbmiOdxw Previously Markets and Mining @galaxydigitalhq , @Citi Digital Assets

Joined September 2020
  • Tweets646
  • Following366
  • Followers2.7K
112Media
Sam Baker retweeted
River
@River15h
Bitcoin is the only major asset class primarily held by individuals. Bonds, stocks, and gold have existed for centuries. So naturally they are more institutionalized. As bitcoin matures, we expect ownership to shift towards institutions. Its ownership distribution will look more similar to gold. This is not necessarily a good or bad thing. It is simply the inevitable consequence of global adoption.
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The separation of money and state.
River
@RiverOct 22
Hey @grok, what's the solution for this?
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Sam Baker retweeted
River
@RiverOct 14
How inflation works: In 2023, you weighed 200 lbs. In 2024, you gained 20 lbs (+10%) In 2025, you gained 20 lbs (+9.1%) In 2026, you gained 20 lbs (+8.3%) Government: "You're healthy! Weight gain is down!"
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Sam Baker retweeted
River
@RiverOct 12
Checking in on the fiat currency experiment.
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Sam Baker retweeted
River
@RiverOct 10
~1.5 million bitcoin has been lost through self-custody, about the same as on exchanges. How you store your bitcoin matters. Your keys or not your keys, doing your due diligence is your responsibility.
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Sam Baker retweeted
River
@RiverOct 8
1 million more bitcoin. That's how much businesses are on track to buy within five years. Our new report shows the biggest trends shaping business bitcoin adoption in 2026.

Businesses already own 8% of all bitcoin

Article · @River
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Sam Baker retweeted
River
@RiverOct 5
There’s not enough bitcoin for everyone. Here’s who is fighting over the supply.
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Inflation is the most important concept not taught in school.
River
@RiverOct 1
Inflation is so much more than what the government tells you.
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Sam Baker retweeted
River
@RiverSep 30

The hidden $800 billion tax on Americans

Article · @River
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A simple proxy for success is Bitcoin's security budget rising in real terms over time. 10 years is 3 halvings away. So bitcoin's price must be at least 8 times higher (after adjusting for inflation) to maintain the same security budget, assuming tx fees stay near zero.
River
@RiverSep 27
What does success look like for Bitcoin in 10 years?
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Sam Baker retweeted
River
@RiverSep 23
For once, there is a real supply shock in bitcoin. This year: - Trading volumes are down 30% - Price is up 50% - 81% of the supply hasn’t moved in 6 months Our newsletter covers the details👇
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This is what makes me so bullish right now. Price isn't moving because there are a ton of buyers. It's moving because no one is selling. Now imagine what happens when we see real volume.
James Seyffart
@JSeyffSep 21
US Spot Bitcoin ETFs had about $4.5 billion in trading volume today. Which isn't all that high considering the move in BTC itself. Even this past Friday was a slightly bigger day at $4.6 billion
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Sam Baker retweeted
River
@RiverSep 20
Looking for in-depth research on all things bitcoin? Ours is completely free. You can easily find all our work at River.com/research
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This is extremely bullish.
River
@RiverSep 18
Individuals are buying bitcoin at the fastest pace in years. Bitcoiners, we are so back.
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Sam Baker retweeted
Bram Kanstein
@bramkSep 17
LIVE: BFM284 w/ @river’s @macromule⚡️ We discuss how Bitcoin gets to $840K in the next 5 years. 🔸The death of 60/40 🔸Stocks failing in high inflation 🔸The case for 10% Bitcoin 🔸(Extremely early) institutional adoption 🔸Bitcoin price multipliers 🔸Bitcoin hodl time horizons

We Don’t Need a Crisis for $250K-$840K Bitcoin | Sam Baker | BFM284

We discuss the death of 60/40, bonds under inflation and debt-to-GDP pressure, institutional Bitcoin allocation dynamics, and the supply squeeze multiplier behind a $250k to $840k Bitcoin case.

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Bitcoin Could Reach $840,000 Within Five Years | @macromule Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 00:41 The case for $840,000 Bitcoin 06:55 Which investors are adopting Bitcoin? 09:22 $1 of buying can add more than $1 to market cap 14:00 The case for a 10% Bitcoin allocation 20:43 What is Bitcoin? 23:04 How much Bitcoin is too much? 25:25 What new Bitcoin investors should know 26:28 Exchange custody vs. self-custody 29:02 What would confirm the $840,000 thesis? 30:42 The CLARITY Act 32:09 Would $840,000 Bitcoin still be early? 36:05 How AI could accelerate Bitcoin adoption 38:27 Businesses are driving Bitcoin demand 41:09 Closing thoughts
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This is the track record of an institution whose explicit mandate is "price stabilization." 🤡
River
@RiverSep 15
Aren't these guys supposed to "stabilize prices"?
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I stopped going to the barber in 2020. Instead of spending $35 for a haircut, I saved in bitcoin. 113 haircuts skipped... $10K saved... This is true conviction.
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Sam Baker retweeted
River
@RiverSep 10
Why do Central Banks target 2% inflation? Why not 0% or any other number? This one off-hand remark during a TV interview in New Zealand started it all:
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