L2 Capital. Tweets are not investment advice. Catholic guy
Joined June 2015
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Meu livro foi publicado na Amazon EUA. Nele falo sobre as energias ditas limpas, solar e fotovoltaica, e seus desafios. Dedico uma boa parte para falar sobre energia nuclear e tb sobre temas atuais, como o aquecimento global, creditos de carbono e mto mais
amazon.com/ENERGIA-LIMPO-dis…
$PYPL is growing revenue by just 2%, losing mkt share in branded checkout, and facing increasing competition. It trades at around 10xEPS, generates billions in FCF, and is bb shares. Is it a melting ice cube, or is the market missing the bigger picture? marcelolopez.substack.com/p/…
It's the second time in ~36 years that this event, which is supposed to happen once every 159 trillion years, has occurred
BREAKING: Brazil's -19.8% stock market crash on Monday was one of the rarest market events in the last two decades, according to our analysis.
Brazil's EWZ ETF plunged -19.8% on October 26th, marking an 8.4 standard deviation move.
For context, the ETF's average daily move over the last 20 years has been just +0.04%, with a standard deviation of 2.36%.
Under a normal distribution, the probability of a decline this extreme is approximately 1 in 58 quadrillion.
In other words, this event should be virtually impossible under conventional statistical models.
What just happened in Brazil was *almost* impossible.
Marcelo Lopez retweeted
“Uma hora o Brasil te pega”
Quanto do seu patrimônio já depende do Brasil?
No novo artigo da L2 Capital, @malopez1975 discute esses riscos e as oportunidades que deixamos de considerar quando restringimos nossos investimentos ao mercado brasileiro.
l2capital.com.br/uma-hora-o-…
You can have great companies, talented managers and double-digit interest rates. But political risk and currency depreciation can wipe out your returns. Your income and assets are already tied to Brazil. Must your portfolio be, too? Free on Sustack: marcelolopez.substack.com/p/…
Uma hora dessas eh bom lembrar de uma frase do Richard Rytenband "Uma hora o Brasil te pega". Vou escrever sobre isso @fernandoulrich
Political "comeback"
BREAKING: In an unprecedented comeback, Brazil's President Lula da Silva has defeated Flavio Bolsonaro, securing a 4th term in office.
Lula is officially the first presidential candidate in Brazil's modern democratic history to lose the first round of voting and go on to win the runoff.
Prior to the election, Lula's implied odds of victory had fallen as low as 10%.
This marks one of the most remarkable political comebacks in Brazil's history.
Charter Communications ($CHTR): down over 80% in 5 years. Declining revenues, a heavy debt burden and intensifying competition. But also the potential for strong FCF. My latest on Substack: marcelolopez.substack.com/p/…
In 2022, conventional wisdom said to stay away from California cannabis. We disagreed. Our investment in $GLAS paid off beautifully. Last year, we sold our entire position. Read why we bought, what the market missed, and why we ultimately walked away: marcelolopez.substack.com/p/…
Important read about averaging down: when to buy more and when to walk away. A lower share price doesn’t always mean a bargain. The goal isn’t to lower your average cost, it’s to make better investment decisions. My latest: marcelolopez.substack.com/p/…
My most important portfolio update so far. After 30+ years in financial markets, I’ve rarely seen a market this bifurcated. There’s a lot to unpack and some important developments I want to share with subscribers. Full update is now available: marcelolopez.substack.com/p/…
Korea may be the canary in the coal mine. Market leadership is narrowing, passive flows are propping up mega-cap valuations, and the S&P CAPE is near 42x. Like the Nifty Fifty in the 1970s, today's winners may not remain untouchable forever. My latest: marcelolopez.substack.com/p/…
Everyone wants to invest in the next big thing, but sometimes the real moat is underneath it. Apps and financial products can change quickly. Payment infrastructure doesn’t. My latest on Substack: marcelolopez.substack.com/p/…
Expectations have come down significantly, marked by an 80%+ collapse in the share price, while the balance sheet remains strong and the business continues to grow and generate cash. Sometimes, the most interesting opportunities are hiding in plain sight. marcelolopez.substack.com/p/…
The Perfect Storm Has Created an Opportunity. Weak growth. Falling margins. Management turnover. Guidance cuts. The market has punished the stock brutally. But expectations have collapsed faster than the underlying business. My latest on Substack: marcelolopez.substack.com/p/…
He should start an ultra-leveraged hedge fund
Lululemon ($LULU) is down >80% from its highs and now trades around $100. This has definitely caught my attention. The upside could be significant if the turnaround works. But is there enough margin of safety?
My latest on Substack: marcelolopez.substack.com/p/…