The degree of probability is a function of how good the edge is. None of the posts constitute financial advice, but rather an interpretation of technicals.
Joined May 2010
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Sharing our latest #Bitcoin market update following our initial update to members first, highlighting the evolving technical picture and key zone since the past year to current levels.
teapawt.net/marbobsix/status/21086…
#Bitcoin and the 217 Day Cycle
Read more here marbobsix.substack.com/p/bit…
Between October 2022 and mid-2023, at a time when Wall Street analysts and financial commentators were projecting a dot-com-style crash, I outlined a series of market projections driven by cyclical rhythm analysis to identify key periods of risk windows for 2025–2026. This framework accurately manifested with Bitcoin cycle top in October 2025—which led to a 50%+ correction, as well as the S&P 500's initial 20%+ decline before new readings emerged.
On the macroeconomic front, we successfully mapped out Federal Reserve policy through the rate-hike phase and the extended pause after the peak in the 5.35%. This correctly anticipated the Fed’s pivot to rate cuts in August-September 2024, followed by the secondary surge in yields recently that pushed the 10-year Treasury past 5% and mortgage rates above 7%.
Precise market timing is inherently challenging, and these projections represented my best data-driven interpretations at the time. As we enter the final quarter of 2026, I have been working on new models. Applying the same core cyclical arguments, I will outline fresh projections to navigate the significant convergence of cycles ahead in 2027. youtu.be/MRQmO0pdGns?is=FvNZ…
Marbobsix retweeted
As we continue mapping the macro pattern for #Bitcoin, I’m keeping a close eye on what could be shaping up for the next bull cycle. If we revisit similar variables from the previous cycle, a bottom at $15K to highs north of $100K.
The behavioral pattern becomes very telling.
This is precisely the framework I’m building for the next Bull Run. There will be minor adjustments along the way, but the overall trajectory remains consistent with what I’m tracking. Watch the short video below for full context.
Marbobsix retweeted
Are we here? @jam_croissant
The most important reading you will see today $BTC
