Liquidity is a state of mind. Fiat enthusiast. 🇺🇸 🇮🇹 /s 🇪🇸 🇫🇷 🇵🇹 @BehavioralMacro
California
Joined April 2011
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2005-2007 banks were 30x levered, there was no QE and Fed funds rate was at 5%
1998-2000 equities had highest valuations ever. There was no QE and Fed fund rate was at 5%
2015-2021 Japan & EU run largest QE on earth, JP and EU equities don't experience massive asset inflation
They are. $EWZ
Lula’s shock win in Brazil against Bolsonaro triggered an investor reaction for the ages. But @JPSpinetto thinks markets are overacting 🎥
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Because it's a Russian propaganda operation designed, like the hostage releases, to distract Trump, stroke his ego and prevent him from resuming pressure on Russia to end the war
It’s not a coincidence that this is being floated just ahead of the midterms. Buckle up.
SCOOP up now @washingtonsun from @JasJWright and @jstein_sun : The White House is weighing mass pardons for junior staff washingtonsun.com/whitehouse…
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A rather famous economist (I won't mention his name) just told me in DMs that the economy always converges to equilibrium.
I asked him when.
He said in the long run.
I asked him what fucking year.
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Breaking news: The Trump administration has not approved the transfer of interceptor missiles to Ukraine that are needed to protect the country from Russian attacks, officials said, a delay that comes as President Trump has embraced Russia in recent weeks. wapo.st/4yCb7T7
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The WSJ editorial board states outright: “…there needs to be a bipartisan reckoning for Mr. Trump’s budding alliance with the Kremlin against Ukraine, Europe and American interests.”
wsj.com/opinion/to-russia-wi…
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The worst people, the absolute worst people, are those who only think about “hurt” after hurt happens to them.
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🇵🇱🇺🇦🇺🇸 Sikorski:
Since January of last year, the U.S. has not contributed a single cent to the defense of Ukraine. We are doing it, Europe.
The worst people, the absolute worst people, are those who only think about “hurt” after hurt happens to them.
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This is really striking and not great for the notion that prediction market traders make impartial, purely profit-maximizing decisions. The correlation here with state presidential voting has to be >.7? It sure looks like people are just betting on the candidate they want to win.
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Wow you are a moron. There is literally zero chance of $2 per share.
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
It hit $2/share
x.com/MebFaber/statu…
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Billions of dollars’ worth of contracts predicting oil would fall and the S&P 500 would rise were placed about 15 minutes before Trump announced a U-turn on Iran in a post on Truth Social. CFTC staff began to investigate-- then were told to lay off. bloomberg.com/news/features/…
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For better or worse the people who’ve been prescient about AI are the “doomers” who founded OpenAI and Anthropic.
The accelerationists are the people who thought NFTs and/or the Metaverse were going to be the next big thing.
This is a funny tweet. Because do people actually associate @pmarca and Thiel with having been prescient about AI? The former I associate with b2b SaaS. The latter with kind of Silicon Valley woo ideas. With Elon it’s more complex, but Brian has a substantive point to make.