Mark Broadie

Here's an explanation of strokes gained in under two minutes...

Many congrats to Cameron Young on his first victory! You could see his potential years ago.

'25 NCAA D1 Men's regionals: A simulation estimated 9.5 average upsets (seeds 1-5 not advancing to the nationals). There were 10 upsets with advancing and non-advancing teams and upsets by rank and seed shown below. More M than W upsets because M teams are more tightly bunched.

NCAA D1 Men's regionals start Monday with 9.5 expected upsets (with a range from 6-12). Only 6.5 upsets were expected at the D1 Women's regionals. Why the difference? The D1 Men's teams are more 'tightly bunched,' so teams ranked 3-5 are much 'closer' to teams ranked 6-10.

'25 NCAA D1 Women's regionals: A simulation estimated 6.5 average upsets (seeds 1-5 not advancing to the nationals). There were 7 upsets (one the outcome of a playoff and the other was one stroke from a playoff). Tables below show advancers and upsets by rank and seed.

The NCAA golf regionals get underway tomorrow. Inspired by some @BrentleyGC posts, the projected number of upsets are given below. In D1 women teams, expect 6.5 upsets, with a range of 5 to 9 quite possible. Which teams do you think will be the upsets?

On the eve of the Masters, a great read by @FarrellEvans75 .

Interesting points about ball flight, club fitting and more. Worth a listen, even if I am biased!

Golf and life connections from @petercoy: "It’s human nature to underappreciate the role of luck. A person who was born on third base thinks he hit a triple. Novice investors on a winning streak need to be reminded not to confuse genius with a bull market" nytimes.com/2024/06/24/opini…

NCAA DI regionals are in the books. In DI men's regionals, the expected number of upsets (top 5 seeds not advancing) was 9 and there were 9 upsets. In DI women's regionals, 7.1 was the expected number of upsets and there were 5.

As the NCAA golf regionals get underway, here are some projections of the number of upsets to expect (inspired by a couple of @BrentleyGC posts). In DI women teams, expect around 7 top 5 seeds not to be in the 30 teams that advance (but a range of 5 to 10 is quite likely).

OWGR vs SG from @datagolf: "OWGR uses a scoring-based system to determine a tournament’s field strength and total point allocation, then rewards points based on a player’s finish—which combines the best features of scoring- and points-based systems." datagolf.com/letzigs-latest/…

For those watching golf this weekend at Riviera, here's an analysis that I first did over 15 years ago and updated over the years. Any ideas why it took so long to change?

Thanks for the mention @lukekerrdineen: "Broadie discarded the crude old stats, things like total driving, and fairways hit, and developed a slate of advanced analytics for golf, and then began showing the world what they revealed." golfdigest.com/story/bomb-an…

Some great college golf was playing in the fall! Nick Dunlap with the best SG round (DI men) and Megha Ganne with the best 3-round SG Event (DI women). See scoreboard.clippd.com/rankin… for NCAA rankings.

Nick Dunlap is ranked first in the NCAA college golf ranking: scoreboard.clippd.com/rankin… He shot 60 today and is leading by 3 going into the final round of the Amex. Possible history in the making tomorrow. Good luck!

Great ad for golf and overall fitness. See @Fit_For_Golf for some great programs.

"When it comes to how teams are ranked, hardly any coaches are upset with where their teams are in the rankings," wrote @Cam_Jourdan golfweek.usatoday.com/lists/…

Good read about analytics at the Ryder Cup by @AdamSchupak

Analytics at the RyderCup from @PaulHodowanic. "Donald credits Strokes Gained data for playing an integral role in his rise to world No. 1." pgatour.com/article/news/lat… @DodoMolinari @LukeDonald