Mark W. Stephens

The Midterm is Not the Endterm It is too soon to calibrate the direction of the post midterm Democratic and Republican Parties. But if the first 72 hours are any indication—and despite the soon to be Speaker’s denials—the Left is already bragging about subpoenas, and it is intoxicated by the notion of investigations and impeachments. Heady Democrats have entirely forgotten the politically suicidal fashion of the 2021-4 five civil and criminal courtroom circuses, the Mar-a-Lago raid, and the blue state deballoting efforts. All that and more fueled the Trump recovery. Wild talk of multi-trillion-dollar new agendas grows, like socializing the health care system, a renewed Green New Deal, student loan forgiveness, and illegal alien amnesties, along with new punitive income and estate regulations and taxes. This socialist dream is reminiscent of the 2021 giddy splurging that gave the country a 9.1% inflation rate by midterm year 2022. Along with the Afghanistan disaster (the Left’s correction for a Middle East ‘forever war”) the inflation would ensure Biden a 40% popularity. The idea that the Left, which cannot do much real lawmaking without a veto-proof Congress, will try to reach deals with the White House, adopt a 1995 Clinton-like realist agenda, simply claim credit for the growing Trump economy, or moderate its rhetoric is highly unlikely. Instead, we hear crazy talk of confiscations, new billionaire and millionaire punitive taxes, imprisonments, changing the Constitution—all in full suicidal 1972 McGovern style. Republicans are blame-gaming each other, which can be constructive if over issues and reforms rather than social media ad hominem. But they need to message far better, about both the administration’s successes and the dangers of a socialist future. There will be likely be no planned presidential succession, or gentlemanly agreement on a front runner. That’s likely good news. More likely as of now a triangular race between front-runners De Santis, Rubio, and Vance emerges—all of whom are far preferable to any ticket with a Newsom, Harris, AOC, Mamdani, or el-Sayed. If the Republicans can stay reasonably united, they can ensure permanent presidential vetoes of crazy leftwing legislation, fight back on the Democratic committee inquisitions, and see the economy in the final two years become an asset in recovering their popularity. Absent in all conversations is that there is increasing evidence that the economy is actually expanding and has the potential to boom in 2027, or at least the data indicate such potential. The jobs report came out yesterday with a stunning 165,000 jobs created in October (accompanied by the usual journalists’ adverb “unexpectantly”), dropping unemployment to 4.1%. Revised 3rd GDP stats now show a robust 3.4% growth—likely ensuring at least 3%+ growth for the year. Third Quarter consumer spending soared 3.8%. Private domestic investment surged with 19.4% growth. Just reported last week: median family income in 2025 hit a new record ($87,460)—the highest in 60 years adjusted for inflation. And poverty dipped to its lowest rate (ever 10.2%). In October manufacturing activity grew faster than at any time in the past five years. Yes, prices are too high, and final 2026 inflation, given gas hikes, is scheduled to increase by one point (3.7%) from last year’s (2.7%). But it is still lower than the pan-European average (ca. 4+%)—and much lower than the Biden average over four years of 5.1%. Gas prices are already falling. On November 6 prices fell to a $4.06 average—as global oil transit is mostly back to prewar levels and refineries scramble to handle the increased deliveries. U.S. companies are dominating all the top 10 rankings in market capitalization/usage in key area such as software, AI, digital media, space, satellite launches, and bio/genetic engineering. Note that today gas prices are not that much higher than 4 years ago at the 2022 midterm time ($4.06 vs. ca. $3.80), and haven’t once spiked to $5 a gallon as they did in 2022, just four months before the Biden midterms. Yet oddly, the red wave sputtered in 2022 when the U.S. was in far worse economic shape than this week when the blue wave became a tsunami. Messaging, media, and communication count, so note: Four years ago GDP growth was lower than today—even though the pandemic was about over and there was a dramatic return to work and spending. The inflation rate was almost three times higher in 2022 than now. Median family income was $14,000 lower than now. The poverty rate was higher in 2022. The Dow was 20,000 points lower. Foreign investment will likely end the year 30-40% higher than in 2022. Real wage growth (nominal wages minus inflation) while not great in 2026 is likely to end the year far better than in 2022 (when real wage growth fell 2-3%). So why would “affordability” have been decisive in the 2026 midterms when it was not in 2022? The 21% aggregate inflation rate Trump inherited force-multiplied the average 3.15% Trump inflation rate of 2025-6— yet in a way the aggregate first-term Trump inflation rate (7.7% just a third of the Biden total) did not exaggerate all that much the 9.1% inflation rate in 2022. Messaging, however, matters. The administration did not explain adequately that a 21% rise in prices cannot be lowered without radical deflation or recession, but only ameliorated by medium family income growth and lowering the inflation rate from the Biden 2021-5 averages, both of which occurred in 2025-6, but were forgotten. Media coverage of the Biden 2022 weak economy were muted, while Trump’s 2-year inflation rate was exaggerated during 2026. The Iran war became the culprit as a war of choice that made the inherited Biden 21% high prices and the inability to lower were them solely Trump’s fault. Again, there was inadequate explanation of either the economic reality or why the gamble to denuclearize Iran was defensible–with the caveat that stopping the bombing at day 38 and talking with theocrats for seven months was an unfortunate mistake. The domestic and foreign policy activism of the lame-duck Clinton (1998-2000} and Obama (2014-2016) presidencies increased after their loss of Congress. Indeed, their popularity climbed from a once nadir of below forty to sixty percent approval or above. There is no reason why the Trump administration cannot have a successful last two years. The economy is growing. The crime rate is at historic lows. The border is closed shut. The radical pro-Western political transformation of South and Central America has remade the entire Western Hemisphere. European NATO is rearming. Oil and gas production is at highest levels of any nation in history. The bloated federal work force has been trimmed by over 270,000 jobs. There is no longer a 40,000-50,000 shortfall in military recruitment. The forced reforms in higher education were long overdue. The verdict on Iran is still out. If it is denuclearized, the crippling sanctions continued, the Strait kept open, the provincial opposition armed—and our military gone home— the regime will face an increasingly restive population 2026 was an unequivocal defeat, but 2028 need not be. If the administration and Congress stay disciplined and united, and can message better, while the Left goes utterly berserk, drunk on their midterm successes, socialism/Islamism, and Trump Derangement Syndrome 2.0, the tide will soon radically turn— as the economy already has.