Precious Metals Manager

Macro and Global Liquidity Analysis: Gold, Silver, and Bitcoin - March 2024 Today the Ainslie Research team (ainslie.to/research) brings you the latest monthly update on where we are in the Global Macro Cycle, driven by the Global Liquidity Cycle, and the implications for #Gold, #Silver, and #Bitcoin. This summary highlights the key charts that were discussed with our expert panel on Tuesday. We encourage you to watch the recorded video of the presentation in full (youtu.be/xFrghQ7P7LY) for the detailed explanations. Where are we currently in the Global Macro Cycle? We switched back into the Mid Cycle phase of the Global Macro Cycle on the back of continued strength in the global economy this month. We are still well below the halfway line however, indicating there is plenty of runway left for the upward momentum to continue. This is consistent with what we are seeing in terms of economic growth in the U.S., as evidenced by the ISM. Although the leading indicator is looking choppy in the short term for April… the trend over the next 3 months indicates we have passed the bottom of the cycle and expect to be heading higher. In terms of U.S. inflation, our leading indicator shows that the lagging government reported rate continues to remain higher than the real-time data, so there is no strong upward pressure on the rate expected over the next few months. The leading indicator suggests that the real rate of inflation is sitting around 2%, which is within the Federal Reserve’s stated target range, so it would be supportive of a new rate cutting cycle as hinted at by the Fed recently.

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