Mike Millard

30 funds have raised 36% of all VC and now lead 34% of seed rounds by value. We talk about capital concentrating at the top but it's actually concentrating all the way down. PitchBook compared the Top 30 VC firms to the rest of the market at seed. (Top 30 by performance, not size, although there's heavy overlap.) These firms aren't just raising an outsized share of capital or dominating the biggest growth rounds. They're dramatically changing the dynamics at seed. The median seed round led by a Top 30 firm was historically 2x the size of overall median. This year, it's 3x. That changes pricing, runway, and how big a swing a company can take. But the bigger question is what flows from here. Is it a given that the top Series A companies will increasingly come from the top seed cohorts? Or will performance reshuffle the deck between rounds? There used to be real concern about adverse selection when a top fund invested at seed and then didn't follow on. But that was when these firms participated in ~5% of the market five years ago, not the estimated ~15% today. It will be interesting to see whether the winners at seed naturally graduate to become the winners at A and the market bifurcates further. Or if the market resets between rounds, leaving a much larger pool of companies with an even higher bar to clear given the expectations that come with brand and access to capital. Which are you seeing at A right now?