I like bitc***
Satoshi's Ark
Joined July 2014
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Anyone heard from @jimmy168371076
I’m either going to have the greatest comeback of all time or gonna lose it all. Years of hard work and suffering. These last few weeks have been nothing but pain. Max pain. Hopefully by end of year, it’ll be max gain. Otherwise, I may have to rope max. Wake me up in December
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I did a thing.
I abide by the results of the poll.
Just listed the house for sale yesterday
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“The stock market is wild, sort of rollercoaster. I think Warren Buffett has a lot of good sayings. One is, ‘Having a publicly traded company is like having someone stand outside your house and yell house prices all day,’ and it’s still the same house,”
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WHEN WARREN BUFFETT MET Michael Saylor
"Michael, YOUR INVESTING STRATEGY IS SO SIMPLE; WHY DOESN'T EVERYONE JUST COPY YOU?”
Saylor: "BECAUSE
NOBODY WANTS TO GET RICH Volatilely"
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LEFT: Nav number go up
MID: 1x nav but maybe should be at a discount below 1 & reits have low nav premium & LTCM collapsed & key man risk & 6102 attack & upcoming bear market & BTC ETFs are better & what if BTC goes to 0
RIGHT: Nav number go up
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How much do mining stocks need to go up in order to just break even with $mstr?
Miners are down -31% over the past almost 3 years
Asking for a friend
This isn't the dunk he thinks it is.
The arb desk perspective on MSTR. Math, analysis and limitations of cloning.
A thread 1/N
On September 24, 2024 MSTR issued 875 Million .625% convertible senior notes, maturing on September 15, 2028.
At the time of issuance, the conversion price of $183.19 was approximately 19% above the estimated spot price of $154. For simplicity, let’s use 20% as the number.
MSTR’s actual volatility is around 80%.
A four year call option 20% out of the money is worth 58% at 80% vol.
Let’s assume for simplicity that all of the bond is purchased by an arb desk.
The delta is about 79%. So the arb desk will short 79% of the issue to stay delta neutral. If the arb desk does 875 Million of the issue, they will need to short 691 Million.
They can expect to make 58% of the issue price or $400 million. There will be friction, and volatility could drop, so let’s assume 350 million to be safe.
With slippage, and including the .625% coupon, they get to 42%
They of course have credit risk. In an extreme scenario, they might not be “money good”. But let’s just assume that they are OK with the credit.
They do need to come up with 875 Million. Their funding rate on that might be closer to 8%.
Over 4 years, that is 36% of the principal, compounded.
The difference of 42% to 36% is the arb desks net profit. Something like 6 points, or 52 million.
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