MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter (@mlb_simulator)

@mlb_simulatorJul 9

I've working on a website that can help you seamlessly dig beyond the box score, more quickly understand what type of player someone is, and even learn how a team is structured. I'll try my best to explain below, but I encourage you to take a peak here: dtwbaseball.com

MLB Deserve-to-Win

See who deserved to win every MLB game, re-simulated from the quality of the contact. Most charts show the league average and league best, so you can tell good from normal.

32,945

MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter · Oct 25, 2026 · 3:50 PM UTC

@mlb_simulatorOct 25

Updated Playoff Bracket Probabilities (10/25/2026) TB 13% @ MIL 87% (MIL leads 2-0) Title favorite: #ThisIsMyCrew 87% #MLB #Postseason

2,903

MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter · Oct 25, 2026 · 3:57 AM UTC

@mlb_simulatorOct 25

⚾ Rays @ Brewers 10/24/2026 Final: Rays 4, Brewers 5 Deserve-to-Win: Rays 5% / Brewers 89% (Tie 6%) #MLB #RaysUp #ThisIsMyCrew

371

17,300

MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter · Oct 24, 2026 · 3:33 AM UTC

@mlb_simulatorOct 24

⚾ Rays @ Brewers 10/23/2026 Final: Rays 2, Brewers 3 Deserve-to-Win: Rays 14% / Brewers 75% (Tie 11%) #MLB #RaysUp #ThisIsMyCrew

180

9,847

MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter · Oct 20, 2026 · 12:27 PM UTC

Updated Playoff Bracket Probabilities (10/20/2026) Title favorite: #ThisIsMyCrew 64% #MLB #Postseason

4,860

MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter · Oct 20, 2026 · 12:28 PM UTC

MLB Deserve-to-Win

See who deserved to win every MLB game, re-simulated from the quality of the contact. Most charts show the league average and league best, so you can tell good from normal.

716

MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter · Oct 20, 2026 · 3:12 AM UTC

⚾ Guardians @ Rays 10/19/2026 Final: Guardians 3, Rays 7 Deserve-to-Win: Guardians 8% / Rays 85% (Tie 7%) #MLB #GuardsBall #RaysUp

2,052

MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter · Oct 20, 2026 · 9:55 AM UTC

dtwbaseball.com/games/849815

Guardians @ Rays, 10/19/2026

See who deserved to win Guardians (3) at Rays (7) on 10/19/2026, with estimated bases, the luck ledger and win probability.

481

MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter · Oct 19, 2026 · 12:12 AM UTC

⚾ Rays @ Guardians 10/18/2026 Final: Rays 3, Guardians 1 Deserve-to-Win: Rays 44% / Guardians 34% (Tie 22%) #MLB #RaysUp #GuardsBall

4,334

MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter · Oct 19, 2026 · 12:21 PM UTC

dtwbaseball.com/games/849817

Rays @ Guardians, 10/18/2026

See who deserved to win Rays (3) at Guardians (1) on 10/18/2026, with estimated bases, the luck ledger and win probability.

502

MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter · Oct 19, 2026 · 12:21 PM UTC

Updated Playoff Bracket Probabilities (10/19/2026) CLE 18% @ TB 82% (TB leads 3-2) Title favorite: #ThisIsMyCrew 65% #MLB #Postseason

4,847

MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter · Oct 19, 2026 · 12:21 PM UTC

MLB Deserve-to-Win

See who deserved to win every MLB game, re-simulated from the quality of the contact. Most charts show the league average and league best, so you can tell good from normal.

622

MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter · Oct 18, 2026 · 2:50 PM UTC

Updated Playoff Bracket Probabilities (10/18/2026) CLE 43% @ TB 57% (tied 2-2) Title favorite: #ThisIsMyCrew 67% #MLB #Postseason

3,684

MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter · Oct 18, 2026 · 2:50 PM UTC

MLB Deserve-to-Win

See who deserved to win every MLB game, re-simulated from the quality of the contact. Most charts show the league average and league best, so you can tell good from normal.

638

MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter · Oct 18, 2026 · 3:23 AM UTC

🚨 Rays are luck merchants! 🚨 ⚾ Rays @ Guardians 10/17/2026 Final: Rays 7, Guardians 3 Deserve-to-Win: Rays 27% / Guardians 59% (Tie 14%) #MLB #RaysUp #GuardsBall

300

59,201

more replies

MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter · Oct 18, 2026 · 3:32 AM UTC

My model takes into account temperature and had the Caminero batted ball as an 82% HR probability. The Guardians had 2 more barrels and 6 less strikeouts as well

3,318

MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter · Oct 18, 2026 · 3:33 AM UTC

Code is public github.com/dgrifka/baseball_…

GitHub - dgrifka/baseball_game_simulator: MLB Deserve-to-Win Simulator

MLB Deserve-to-Win Simulator. Contribute to dgrifka/baseball_game_simulator development by creating an account on GitHub.

github.com

2,742

MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter · Oct 16, 2026 · 3:12 AM UTC

⚾ Brewers @ Dodgers 10/15/2026 Final: Brewers 6, Dodgers 4 Deserve-to-Win: Brewers 46% / Dodgers 39% (Tie 15%) #MLB #ThisIsMyCrew #Dodgers

3,810

MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter · Oct 16, 2026 · 1:04 PM UTC

dtwbaseball.com/games/849810

Brewers @ Dodgers, 10/15/2026

See who deserved to win Brewers (6) at Dodgers (4) on 10/15/2026, with estimated bases, the luck ledger and win probability.

666

MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter · Oct 16, 2026 · 1:03 PM UTC

Updated Playoff Bracket Probabilities (10/16/2026) CLE 63% @ TB 37% (CLE leads 2-1) Title favorite: #ThisIsMyCrew 68% #MLB #Postseason

9,989

MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter · Oct 16, 2026 · 1:03 PM UTC

MLB Deserve-to-Win

See who deserved to win every MLB game, re-simulated from the quality of the contact. Most charts show the league average and league best, so you can tell good from normal.