Research Fellow for Southeast Asian Security and Defence at the IISS https://xitter.cf/t.co/ddBMhv6njF
Joined March 2018
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New report asks what's next for Myanmar's ethnic armies now in control of the borderlands. Military victories haven't brought stability and there's no clear way to remedy this. More pressure on the centre won't necessarily push the regime to the table.
myanmar.iiss.org/updates/202…
Morgan Michaels retweeted
BREAKING NEWS: Aung San Suu Kyi allowed to speak to son Kim Aris
This comes days after King Charles sent Suu Kyi sealed diplomatic letter and bag
Morgan Michaels retweeted
At least two major Thai gas contracts with Myanmar are set to expire in 2028 and 2030. Regardless of who was in power, Thailand surely would be there discussing future operations.
Just 10 weeks after #Myanmar's #MinAungHlaing visited #Thailand, #Bangkok has sent its #energy minister @akanat_promphan to #Naypyitaw to meet ex-junta chief turned president to further discuss energy cooperation. Thailand's "calibrated re-engagement" also highly transactional
Morgan Michaels retweeted
I've spent the last few months digging into gold and its link to conflict in Myanmar. Here's the result: a 20-pager for the International Institute for Strategic Studies. I also couldn't have done it without the help of the awesome Rachel Moon.
@IISS_org
iiss.org/research-paper/2026…
Morgan Michaels retweeted
Gold plays a prominent role in Myanmar's cultural and economic life, from providing a livelihood for hundreds of thousands of subsistence miners to generating wealth for business elites and armed actors.
This launch event will feature an expert panel discussion on illicit gold dynamics, their parallel with critical minerals and rare earths, and the broader evolution of conflict economies in Myanmar.
🗨️@BenedictDunant, Nyein Nyein Thant Aung (@nyein_nta), Chair: Morgan Michaels (@morgmichaels)
🌐Online
📅Thursday 15 October 2026
⏰10:00 - 11:00 BST
Join the discussion: go.iiss.org/4hOdMTq
Morgan Michaels retweeted
Gold plays a prominent role in Myanmar's cultural and economic life, from providing a livelihood for hundreds of thousands of subsistence miners to generating wealth for business elites and armed actors.
This launch event will feature an expert panel discussion on illicit gold dynamics, their parallel with critical minerals and rare earths, and the broader evolution of conflict economies in Myanmar.
🗨️@BenedictDunant, Nyein Nyein Thant Aung (@nyein_nta), Chair: Morgan Michaels (@morgmichaels)
🌐Online
📅Thursday 15 October 2026
⏰10:00 - 11:00 BST
Join the discussion: go.iiss.org/4hOdMTq
Morgan Michaels retweeted
Gold plays a prominent role in Myanmar's cultural and economic life, from providing a livelihood for hundreds of thousands of subsistence miners to generating wealth for business elites and armed actors.
This launch event will feature an expert panel discussion on illicit gold dynamics, their parallel with critical minerals and rare earths, and the broader evolution of conflict economies in Myanmar.
🗨️@BenedictDunant, Nyein Nyein Thant Aung (@nyein_nta), Chair: Morgan Michaels (@morgmichaels)
🌐Online
📅Thursday 15 October 2026
⏰10:00 - 11:00 BST
Join the discussion: go.iiss.org/4hOdMTq
Beyond the diplomatic headlines, more critical are the ongoing developments inside Myanmar.
The Tatmadaw appears increasingly confident in its ability to beat back the broader opposition with extreme force, and a fleeting window for ceasefire may now be closing. 1/4
Rather than costly efforts to recapture large areas outright, the Tatmadaw is applying blockade and grossly disproportionate force to cripple EAO operations and further exhaust the population. This strategy will take time, indicating that immediate ceasefire is not the goal. 3/4
Morgan Michaels retweeted
Tune in on Thursday next week to hear me talk about an upcoming report for the International Institute for Strategic Studies on how conflict shapes the gold trade, and vice versa, in Myanmar
Gold plays a prominent role in Myanmar's cultural and economic life, from providing a livelihood for hundreds of thousands of subsistence miners to generating wealth for business elites and armed actors.
This launch event will feature an expert panel discussion on illicit gold dynamics, their parallel with critical minerals and rare earths, and the broader evolution of conflict economies in Myanmar.
🗨️@BenedictDunant, Nyein Nyein Thant Aung (@nyein_nta), Chair: Morgan Michaels (@morgmichaels)
🌐Online
📅Thursday 15 October 2026
⏰10:00 - 11:00 BST
Join the discussion: go.iiss.org/4hOdMTq
Perhaps worth asking why the mainstream Myanmar commentariat has been wrong on literally every key question of the war, from opposition unity, regime durability, China's heft, and now Naypyidaw's diplomatic prospects. The answer is not that Myanmar is some unearthly enigma.
Morgan Michaels retweeted
Indonesia and Brunei plan to invite #Myanmar leader Min Aung Hlaing to visit, says Myanmar spokesperson Khine Khine Soe, citing Malaysia PM @anwaribrahim whom she said shared this during his recent meeting with Min Aung Hlaing
Morgan Michaels retweeted
Gold plays a prominent role in Myanmar's cultural and economic life, from providing a livelihood for hundreds of thousands of subsistence miners to generating wealth for business elites and armed actors.
This launch event will feature an expert panel discussion on illicit gold dynamics, their parallel with critical minerals and rare earths, and the broader evolution of conflict economies in Myanmar.
🗨️@BenedictDunant, Nyein Nyein Thant Aung (@nyein_nta), Chair: Morgan Michaels (@morgmichaels)
🌐Online
📅Thursday 15 October 2026
⏰10:00 - 11:00 BST
Join the discussion: go.iiss.org/4hOdMTq
This is significant. Khin Yi has emerged on top after his first serious post-election confrontation with Min Aung Hlaing. Fraught competition between the two will continue.
The military-proxy Union Solidarity and Development Party re‑elected Khin Yi as chairman at its fourth congress in Naypyitaw on September 19-20, despite earlier rumors of a power struggle.
Photo: USDP
#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
Morgan Michaels retweeted
Implementation of the Five-Point Consensus may depend less on high-level diplomacy and more on a convoluted domestic negotiation process now coming into view.
➡️ Read the latest analysis by Morgan Michaels: go.iiss.org/46y1p8x
Morgan Michaels retweeted
“Naypyidaw is unlikely to offer ASEAN genuine progress towards the 5PC in exchange for a political re-invitation to ASEAN.”, argues my colleague @morgmichaels in his latest @IISS_org Online Analysis 👇🏻
iiss.org/online-analysis/onl…
Implementation of the Five-Point Consensus may depend less on high-level diplomacy and more on a convoluted domestic negotiation process now coming into view.
iiss.org/online-analysis/onl…
Latest version of the Myanmar Conflict Map allows users to visualize the operational reach of select armed groups over time.
Explore this and other new data tools on our dashboard:
myanmar.iiss.org/
Morgan Michaels retweeted
The United States welcomes the @ICRC visit to Aung San Suu Kyi. We hope this visit marks the beginning of regular humanitarian access to Aung San Suu Kyi and serves as a pathway to greater access to all political prisoners. We continue to call for her immediate and unconditional release and urge authorities to guarantee her access to medical care and visits. We call for the release of all those unjustly detained and the military to engage in dialogue with all groups to end the conflict in Burma.