Skeptic by day. Optimist for life.
Joined March 2012
- Tweets2.3K
- Following272
- Followers140
- Likes463
I think AI is awesome and in the 1st inning. That’s why I’m doing something that has nothing to do with it. It doesn’t matter if it can replace your expertise. For the next few years, it only matters if people THINK it can replace your expertise.
ChatGPT 5 really sucks so far. Feels like I lost 2 employees replaced with a dimwit. Ask questions and it comes back with: “so what can I help you with?” Doesn’t remember what we’re talking about (in the middle of a convo). Doesn’t live up to @sama’s assessment. Disappointed.
Favorite quote (so far) from the new season of King Of The Hill: “Investing isn’t like raising children. You can’t just make it up as you go.”
Bill Gross is to unrepentant value investors what Fox News is to rural retirees.
Investors wake up!
The timing of the new Fed chair is less significant than the influence he will have on his committee.
If he can sway the committee’s thinking over time, bond markets will increasingly go curve positive, the dollar will weaken, and inflation will likely move to a 3% center.
Some aspects of this are stock market positive others are not, but the uncertainty on Fed policy, tariffs, and the influence of AI will be significant.
I for one am moving defensively — more cash, buying value with 4-5% dividend yields.
And an emphasis on non-U.S in addition to prior mentioned MLP pipelines.
Well, I couldn’t not buy some UNH this morning. Again, I’m ok being wrong. There’s a lot of hair on it right now, and it could take forever to (or it might never) get back to the company it was. At current levels, I don’t think it has to do that to be owned.
Perhaps this says as much about trepidation regarding other options for capital allocation, cost of debt<earnings yields, and EPS management headed into murky macro environment threatening declining demand and margin compression than mgmt views on current valuation.
“Companies listed on the blue-chip S&P 500 index said last week they expect to repurchase $192bn of their stock over the coming months, the highest weekly figure in data going back to 1995, according to @DeutscheBank .
The tally of announced buybacks over the past three months has now risen to $518bn — the biggest rolling three-month sum on record, the bank said.”
ft.com/content/8361835c-6955…
Assuming this is a genuine position, it is the best example of self-attribution bias a behavioral economist could hope for. Everyone is afflicted to some (usually lesser) degree. It’s one of those things: if you think you’re immune, you’ve probably got it worse.
Matt Morley retweeted
I run a small textile manufacturing business. Literally small, not to be confused with what the "media" refers to as small... Our GROSS sales are around $1.5mil/year.
However, we do import fabrics and supplies for our production line, which is a stressful cash flow negative process, but it gives us the margins we need to survive.
Right now, we have over $15k in deposits on orders that can't be shipped, basically being held hostage while the govts have a tariff war pissing contest.
We produce textile products for the Healthcare sector, Industrial Laundry industry, Prison/Jail industry, and more.
We have no choice but to raise prices. As a manufacturer in the USA, I can promise the "everyday consumers" are going to be very upset with the incoming inflation rate.
It's about to hit the fan!!!
@elonmusk @POTUS @SecRubio
We got there… barely. Over the last 2 weeks I’ve learned something about myself: I pretty much always feel that stocks are expensive. At the depths, I got FOMOOB (FOMO-on-bargains) looking for deep value. Glad I followed my own process and deployed some cash on the way down.
Asking the right question has always been more important than having all of the answers. Feels more important now than ever, as AI has a (basically) free answer to (almost) any question, complete with citations.
