MortgageCS

The Fed held rates at 3.75-4% yesterday, and the 30-year just slipped below 7.5% to 7.32% — its first decline since August after seven straight weeks of climbing. Mortgage apps jumped 3.4% in response, the first uptick since early September. Small moves, real relief.

Unsold inventory just passed 2019 levels — 1.15M homes, up 5% from last year. Meanwhile pending sales are running 16% below last year. More choices, less competition. Buyers who've been waiting out the market finally have some breathing room. #HomeBuying

Mortgage rates just hit a one-month low — and you can thank struggling tech stocks. As investors flee AI-related debt for the safety of Treasuries and mortgage bonds, borrowing costs drop. Rates now sit near their best since Sept ~23.

Pending home sales just hit a 12-year low. Rates breached 7%, inventory surged, and Sep. saw record deal cancellations across all 50 major metros. Buyers who were waiting are now walking. If you're still shopping, you've got more leverage than you've had in years. #MortgageRates

The MBA now forecasts that 30-year rates will stay above 7% through all of 2026, with two more Fed hikes expected—December and Q1 2027. If you've been waiting for a dip to buy or refi, the window may not open next year. Plan your numbers around 7%+, not hope. #MortgageRates

30-year rates just topped 7% for the first time since January 2025 — the fifth straight weekly climb in Freddie Mac's benchmark. If you've been sitting on a purchase, this is the kind of stretch where locking beats waiting for a dip that isn't showing up. #MortgageRates

VantageScore 4.0 just opened up to every mortgage lender backed by Fannie and Freddie. Translation: thin credit files, rent history, and utility payments can now count in more places. If a traditional score has held you back, this is worth a fresh look. #MortgageRates

One Fed speech moved the needle: after Warsh talked tough on inflation at Jackson Hole, the top-tier 30yr fixed jumped to 6.81%, a 3-week high. Bond markets now price in more than a 50% chance of a rate HIKE in September. Friday's jobs report is the next thing to watch.

New home sales dropped 10.5% in July to a 607K annual pace, pushing supply to 9.6 months. Normal is 4-6. That means builders are sitting on inventory — and buyers with rate leverage may find room to negotiate on price or closing costs. #HomeBuying

New homes built in 2020 or later cost 10-15% less to insure per square foot than homes from 1980-2010. In older markets like SF, Boston, and Philly the discount runs 20-50%. With PITI up 88% since 2020, that insurance gap is a real line item worth pricing in. #HomeBuying

The Fed held rates yesterday. No hike, despite markets pricing a 1-in-3 chance of one. Mortgage bonds jumped, then gave most of it back within hours after Warsh hinted the bond market is already doing the Fed's tightening for it. Translation: long-term rates staying firm.

Mortgage rates hit a 1-year high this week, topping 6.8% after sitting near 6.5% in late June. The culprit isn't the Fed — it's oil. Renewed Iran conflict spiked fuel prices, and inflation fears pushed bonds (and rates) up. If oil eases, rates have a real path back down.

Big change coming for condo buyers: Fannie Mae is eliminating Limited Review. Every eligible condo loan will need a Full Review or a review waiver. If you're financing a condo, please ensure you know how this could impact you. #HomeBuying

Come August, some condo buyers will hand over up to $2,000 in upfront costs only to learn their unit doesn't qualify for conventional financing. New rule changes are pushing them into higher-rate loans. If you're shopping for a condo, verify eligibility before you spend a dime.

First-time buyers made up half of all purchase loans in 2025, and Gen Z now accounts for 20% of rate locks. The "priced out forever" narrative doesn't match the data... younger buyers are getting creative with down payments and finding their way in. #HomeBuying

Half of all outstanding mortgages are still below 4% — but that share dropped from 65% in early 2022 to 49.9% now. The lock-in effect is real, but it's fading quarter by quarter. #MortgageRates

Mortgage rates dropped to their lowest since mid-May this past week. The biggest driver wasn't inflation data or headlines. It was big investors rebalancing stock/bond portfolios before quarter-end. Thursday's jobs report could decide if the improvement sticks. #MortgageRates

Fed held rates at 3.5–3.75% yesterday, but the dot plot signaled a possible rate hike later this year.

30yr fixed rates are just above the 4-week low. The catch? That entire 4-week range sits at 10-month highs. A signed Iran peace deal could push rates meaningfully lower. Wednesday's Fed meeting isn't expected to move the needle. #MortgageRates

The May jobs report didn't just beat expectations - it rewrote the last two months. March revised from 178k to 214k, April from 115k to 179k. Markets now pricing in 2 Fed rate hikes instead of cuts. That's a full 1% swing in expectations. 📊 #MortgageRates