Loan Officer with an avid interest in worldly events and market factors affecting rates and our economy. Music Lover & song writer.

Nashville
Joined March 2009
I've spent my whole life loving music. Never made it. Just a guy from Florida with a heart full of stories. Then life handed us the hardest years of our lives — loss, tears, hospital hallways, prayers, and eventually… miracles. So I wrote it all down. Every song is real. Every lyric happened. Three months ago I packed up my family and moved to Nashville to finally bring these songs to life. This is our story. 11 songs. All of it true. 🧵 ❤️ Love & marriage 👶 Loss, IVF & our rainbow baby 🏠 Family, roots & home 💪 Grinding for the people who count on you 🌅 Leaving Florida & chasing a dream If any of this sounds like your life too — it was written for you. #CountryRock #NewCountry #Nashville #NashvilleArtist #IndependentArtist #UnsignedArtist #NewMusic
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Conference Board Consumer Confidence, October: 91.7, up 7.5 points. Present situation 120.4, up 8.6. Expectations 72.6, up 6.9. The Conference Board’s own explanation: the recovery was in line with retail gasoline prices easing from September to October. The pump moved the mood.
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On a six month average, only two groups show rising confidence: under 35s, and households earning $100,000 or more. Gen X, Boomers and the Silent Generation keep trailing Gen Z and Millennials, a divide the Conference Board calls sharp. Up across parties, most for Republicans.
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Caveats. Preliminary, online sample, cutoff October 21. The Conference Board corrected its release this morning; read the final. September’s revision is late responses, normal here and why I show the path. Sentiment has predicted spending badly all cycle. Watch the saving rate.
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Richmond Fed, Fifth District Manufacturing, October: composite -2, unchanged. New orders -8 from -6. Shipments 0 from -5. Employment 3 from 7. The 2026 average is about zero after -9 in 2025. Mid Atlantic and Carolina factories stopped shrinking and have not started growing.
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Wages 20, future wages 49, against series averages of 15 and 37. Skills availability -7. Fifth District manufacturers are paying up for labor they still cannot find, in a month when orders fell and backlogs drained. Wage growth is not responding to weak demand.
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Caveats. Diffusion indexes, 120 to 130 firms, seasonally adjusted except prices, which are 12 month percent changes. Highest and lowest since claims are my ranks on Richmond’s history: 1993, prices and wages 1997, spending 2010. Fifth District: DC, MD, NC, SC, VA, most of WV.
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Dallas Fed Texas services, October: revenue index 4.4, back above zero after -0.9 in September. Dallas Fed’s words: growth resumes. The series average is 9.9. Employment 2.8, hours 2.2, barely positive. Texas services are growing at under half normal pace. Growth, technically.
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A Texas commercial lender: the deal that will underwrite at 7 percent is not close to what expectations were when the mortgage rate was 6 percent. And: an increase in maturity defaults on loans originated 5 to 7 years ago with little to no amortization, in banking and CMBS.
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Caveats. Diffusion indexes, seasonally adjusted, 224 firms, collected October 13 to 21. Highest since claims are my ranks on Dallas Fed history to 2007. Comments are individual firms as published by the Dallas Fed, edited by them: observations, not data. Texas, not the US.
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