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California wealth tax competing with California high-speed rail for dumbest initiative ever.
this California wealth tax thing is just incredible.
so in October 2025, a California healthcare union proposed a "one time" 5% tax on any billionaire's wealth. the ballot measure will be voted on next month. In early December 2025, California announced that it would be a retroactive tax if passed, applying to anyone with CA residency as of Jan 1, 2026. The objective is to pay for Medi-Cal, California's incredibly dysfunctional healthcare system. (which also functions as a glorified welfare apparatus, but that's a discussion for another time).
polls reveal that the CA electorate is split around 50/50 on the tax, but prediction markets only give Prop 40 a ~23% chance of passing (there are competing measures on the ballet that would nullify it).
there are 200 billionaires in CA, worth collectively somewhere between $2.3 and $2.6 trillion. 5% of that is around $100b, accounting for a small amount of attrition. proponents of the tax forecasted a significant windfall, assuming only a 10% departure rate.
supporters thought they were being clever with the retroactive concept. no billionares would leave CA in the few short months between the tax being proposed and the residency cutoff date, without the tax even having passed yet, right?
well as it turns out, they did.
a new paper [1] from two academics at Stanford called "The Net Present Value of the California Billionaire Tax Act", argues that not only did more billionaires leave due to the proposed tax than its proponents expected, but that the value of the tax, if it does pass, is actually negative.
proponents of the tax only assumed 10% avoidance, that is, only 10% of the taxable base of targeted billionaires would leave CA within the very short Oct-Dec 2025 window. Jaros and Rauh, the Stanford academics, find that a lower bound of 28.6% of the taxable base managed to leave.
just based on known departures, those departures total $577b in net worth, or $28.8b in potential tax lost. this of course does not capture everyone (many left without announcing their departure), so the authors normalize to departure rates estimated from other wealth tax events, and apply other discounts for litigation, arriving arrive at a figure of only $28-$36b in forecasted tax revenues.
but this isn't all! all of the income taxes paid by the departed billionaires are also forsaken. the authors estimate that CA billionaires pay $3.3- 5.8b in annual income taxes. they assume a midpoint of $2b lost in annual collections from departed billionaires. the net present value of that lost income stream is -$68.9 billion.
so when you add it all up you get:
+ $30b one-time tax windfall (estimated)
- $69b in present value of lost future income taxes
= - 38.9b overall net present value of the tax
of course, this analysis is highly estimate driven. the authors simulate the parameters 100k times and find a negative NPV of the implemented tax 85 percent of the time.
and if the tax doesn't pass, which it's not looking like it will, California still ended up losing at least $577b in departed net worth, and they have permanently poisoned the well with entrepreneurs who will now worry about future wealth taxes.
[1]: nber.org/system/files/workin…
In retrospect, @PaulSimonMusic was really early on the AI wave.
I love @Tesla and the Roadster demo was insane. I’m glad they work on projects like that.
But I wish they’d also work on:
- A reasonable looking pickup truck
- A large SUV
- The 2017 Roadster design
The 3 and Y are amazing cars but it’d be nice if the portfolio had more hits.
Is it possible to turn new Siri off and go back to old Siri?
New Siri is slower at everything. And worse at basic things. Maddening
Brenden Mulligan retweeted
Cavemen Issues Dire Warning That The Wheel Is Going To Eliminate Countless Jobs
Brenden Mulligan retweeted
Bernie Sanders says the top 1% owns more than the bottom 93%, that fewer than a thousand billionaires got $2.2 trillion richer last year, and that it's "obscene."
It's the most seductive and most wrong economic argument of our time. Let me explain why.
First, wealth distribution follows a power law. Always. Everywhere. Books, music, startups, followers on X, goals in soccer. A small minority captures most of the value. That's not a bug of capitalism. It's the mathematical signature of every system where value gets created.
So the only question that matters isn't "how big is the rich's slice?" It's "is the cake growing, and is the slice of the poorest growing with it?"
And the answer is yes. In 1990, more than one human in three lived in extreme poverty. Today it's about one in ten. During exactly the period when billionaires multiplied.
Bernie shows you the slice. He never shows you the cake.
Second thing he won't tell you: past a certain level, wealth stops being consumption. It becomes capital allocation.
Elon Musk isn't sleeping on a pile of cash. He owns stakes in Tesla, SpaceX, xAI. Jeff Bezos owns Amazon stock. That "$2.2 trillion" isn't sitting in a checking account. It's factories, rockets, data centers, millions of jobs. Nobody can eat $100 billion. You can only decide where to invest it.
Once you understand that, the whole debate changes. The real question becomes: who allocates capital better?
The people who built Amazon, SpaceX and Nvidia? Or politicians?
A 5% wealth tax isn't "taking money from the rich." It's taking investment decisions away from people who proved they can create value and handing them to people who proved the opposite.
Because the fundamental difference between an entrepreneur and a politician is consequences.
The entrepreneur invests his own money. If he allocates badly, he loses everything. The market corrects him brutally, no appeal. That's why most startups die: the system kills bad decisions.
The politician invests other people's money. If he allocates badly, nothing happens. Worse, he gets a bigger budget to "fix the problem."
Milton Friedman put it better than anyone. There are four ways to spend money. Your money on yourself: you care about price and quality. Your money on others: you care about price. Others' money on yourself: you care about quality. Others' money on others: you care about nothing.
Government is the fourth box. By design.
Perfect example: California high-speed rail. Approved in 2008 for about $33 billion. Current estimated cost: over $100 billion. Passengers carried: zero. No entrepreneur would have survived that. The politicians who pushed it built careers on it.
And when allocation has no consequences, it eventually finds a buyer. A politician who controls billions without accountability becomes the most profitable target in the world for anyone who wants to steer that money.
The irony is that the left that rails against billionaires is itself funded by billionaires. George Soros is one of the biggest Democratic donors in history. The Gates Foundation shapes public health policy across the planet.
Politicians don't fight billionaires. They pick their own. The ones who fund the state over the ones who compete with it.
So if we actually want fewer poor people, we have to stop judging ideas by their intentions and start judging them by their results. And the results are brutally clear.
China, 1978: Deng Xiaoping opens the economy to markets. More than 800 million people escape extreme poverty. The largest retreat of misery in human history. Not through redistribution. Through the freedom to build.
India, 1991: liberalization. Same movie.
South Korea and North Korea: same people, same language, same starting point in 1953. One became one of the most advanced economies on earth. The other has famines.
Poland and Ukraine: comparable living standards in 1990. Today the average Pole is more than three times richer than the average Ukrainian.
Argentina: a year and a half of liberalization, and the poverty rate falls from over 50% to around 30%.
No country in history escaped poverty by punishing the people who build. Every single one did it by letting them build.
And if you want to see what Bernie's program looks like in real life, you don't have to imagine it. It exists. It's called France. We've been running it for 45 years.
Mass nationalizations in 1981. Two years later, Socialist president Mitterrand has to reverse course into austerity.
Retirement at 60. The 35-hour workweek.
A wealth tax for 35 years. Hundreds of wealthy households left every year for Belgium, Switzerland, London, taking their capital, their companies and their future taxes with them. Macron finally scrapped it in 2018.
Hollande's 75% tax: raised a few hundred million, drove talent out, abandoned after two years.
One of the highest tax burdens in the OECD. Public spending around 57% of GDP, a record in the developed world.
Last balanced budget: 1974. Public debt: over €3.4 trillion. Mass unemployment for four decades.
If taxing the rich and growing the state made people prosperous, France would be the richest country on the planet.
It isn't. GDP per capita in France is barely more than half of America's. It's lower than Mississippi, the poorest state in the US. Not a single global tech giant. Our best engineers build Silicon Valley instead. I've been going back and forth between Paris and San Francisco for years. I see it every week.
And California is about to replay the movie. Prop 40, on the ballot November 3rd, would take 5% of billionaires' net worth. Even Gavin Newsom, a Democratic governor, opposes it. The state's own nonpartisan budget analyst warns that income tax revenue could drop every year if the wealthy leave. Larry Page, Sergey Brin and Peter Thiel have reportedly already started moving their assets out.
You don't fight poverty by shrinking the top. You fight it by growing the cake.
Bernie wants a society where nobody has too much. I want a society where nobody has too little.
The first has been tried everywhere and produces equality in stagnation. The second lifted a billion people out of misery.
Choose.
This viral video was taken at the southern part of my town. It's been incredible to read everyone's perspective / love for this place today.
Here are all the quote posts: xitter.cf/onllycutestuff/status/…
❤️
Incredible to see good software coming out of the government.
Also weird to think "maybe it would be fun to work for the IRS."
Nice job @shl!
Brenden Mulligan retweeted
We have been making a TON of improvements to our platform. We post the more significant ones on our changelog: vulcan.xyz/changelog/
iOS 27 Siri Experience:
Me: “send a text [or do something you’ve always been able to do quickly]”
Siri:
Can't wait for @DanielLurie to run California this way.
We are seeking new contracts for all of San Francisco’s homelessness services, prioritizing accountability and results. This effort will shift all contracts to an outcomes-driven model and incorporate performance metrics. We are also seeking feedback from the community and providers throughout this process.
Our administration is fundamentally transforming how the city tackles homelessness and addiction. We are not just getting people off the streets—we are helping them get on the path to recovery and stability.
But that work can only succeed with a system that is built to deliver results, with accountability when the outcomes aren't good enough. We are not going to continue spending $1 billion of taxpayer money on a failing system—we're fixing the system so we can deliver the safe and clean streets every San Franciscan deserves.
Brenden Mulligan retweeted
David @friedberg on the hypocrisy of @RoKhanna:
"This is some dude who has a $300M net worth. His children have memberships at 3 country clubs."
"The dude lives in a $10M house in Washington, DC."
"And he used to be the moderate Silicon Valley guy who would go around to all the tech CEOs and founders and VCs and be like, 'Give me your money. I'm a moderate. We're going to make the Democratic Party work for you.'"
"Then he saw the tides change, and he's like, 'Oh, this is yum, yum. I'm going to run for president in 2028.'"
"Just to be clear on this, he is so unlikable, I think he'll likely end up being Secretary of Housing and Urban Development if AOC is elected president."
"I do not disagree with him or Gavin or anyone else that tax policy in America is fucked up."
"When billionaires borrow against their unrealized capital gains, they should pay capital gains tax. Capital gains tax should be 40%, not 15% or 18% or 20%. In fact, labor should pay less. Income tax should be much lower. Capital gains should be much higher. That would be a fair tax policy."
"I don't know a lot of people who are wealthy who will look me in the eye and truly disagree with that."
"It's a lot of bullshit when we all say, 'It incentivizes investment.' Great, it incentivizes investment. What are you going to do with your excess capital if the tax rate is 40% versus 20%? You're not gonna invest it now? Of course you're going to fucking invest it."
"But instead of those practical solutions like I just laid out, they're all like, 'Let's go fire up the fucking socialist train because it's worked so well in fucking Cuba and Venezuela and the Soviet Union and all these other places.'"
"What both parties are missing is a policy agenda that says: Here's the shit we have to do to keep America from going down the socialist death spiral. And they all should be fucking doing it, both sides."
California was so incredibly stupid to let this go
I don’t think most people understand the massive scale of investment Tesla & SpaceX are making in Texas right now.
Everything the two companies are/going to build across the state:
• Terafab (Grimes County)
• Gigasat factory (in Bastrop, currently under construction)
• Optimus factory (at Giga Texas, currently under construction)
• Advanced technology fab (at Giga Texas, currently under construction)
• Tesla Project Crystal Sun (big solar cell plant in Fort Bend County. Late 2026 construction start date)
• Expanded Starlink terminal production facility (in Bastrop, currently under construction)
• Further Starbase expansion (in Starbase)
• Tesla Megafactory 3 (in Brookshire, just started prod)
Brenden Mulligan retweeted
Color sets the emotional register of your podcast website faster than any other design choice.
A dark background feels serious or premium. A bright palette signals energy.
Pick one of each, then stop. podpage.com/blog/how-to-desi…
Earlier this year I launched s02 - a way for TokenWorks to survive without VC.
299 NFTs were purchased for 1e each by patrons expecting nothing in return, giving me the freedom to experiment freely.
30% of FWA fees have been going to holders as a gift, currently at 1.7Ξ each





























