Feed Ingredients

Freight via Sulina is outrageous: $180+/t for sunflower, $115/t for wheat. A 3,000t coaster earns $12,000/day, with 3.5% war-risk insurance and 50% refunded if unharmed. Meanwhile, Ukrainian farmers lose $20–30/t and sell corn at $100/t. Everyone profits except the farmer.

Market talk suggests Turkey may have cleared 6 of the 10 restricted GMO traits in US corn.Approval of the remaining 4 could open the door to 3–4 MMT of US imports,putting pressure on Ukrainian corn prices, which traded $15–20/MT above global levels last year due to Turkish demand

A trader told me Turkish feed producer association and the Ministry of Agriculture have been approached to seek approval for the GMO traits in U.S. corn. This could reduce demand for Ukrainian corn. Farm prices are around $40/mt for wet corn and $100/mt for dry corn in Ukraine

Market talks from Turkey suggest that the corn harvest is disappointing, with limited optimism about supplies from Ukraine. U.S. corn at $210/mt FOB, plus $50–55/mt freight to the Eastern Mediterranean,could be an attractive alternative to Romanian corn at around $300/mt landed

~232 USD/ Mton. There can hardly be another country that hits its farmers harder than the United States does. The market is in the hands of traders, not farmers. People should look at wheat prices in Romania, China, India and Turkey, then compare them with prices in the US

US-origin DDGS: $300s/t FOB. Diesel: $1,350–1,400/t, Retail: $8–10/gal, Etanol $700s/t Corn: $188/t. I can’t make the math add up. Borrowing Warren Buffett’s casino analogy, has CBOT become another Nasdaq—“I’ve compared the markets to a church with a casino attached.” ?

Can Ukraine export 0.9 mln of corn this October—and 1.8 mln in November—to match last year’s? Total agricultural exports in September were around 2.4 mln tonnes all products. 🌽 If Ukraine cannot ship those volumes, what happens in the importing markets counting on that corn?

🇺🇦🌽 UKRAINE’S MONTHLY CORN EXPORTS 📊 Thousand tonnes 🔹 2025 September: 40 October: 941 November: 1,840 December: 2,250 🔹 2026 January: 2,820 February: 2,760 March: 2,500 April: 2,690 May: ≈2,340 June: 1,970 July: 1,240 August: 306 September: 309

UKRAINE’S AGRI MINISTER: WINTER WHEAT SOWING FOR THE 2027 HARVEST MAY DROP 17%. Given current market conditions and farmgate prices, a drop of only 17% would be a miracle. We won’t be planting wheat on our own land.

US DDGS for fresh shipment reportedly at $300/mt FOB US Gulf. With $60 freight, that’s $360/mt delivered Mediterranean. But a third US aircraft carrier is heading to the Middle East since Monday. Will crude stay at $100—and freight at $60?

According to market rumors, Turkish authorities reportedly rejected MV CL SHA HE’s 60,000 tonnes of #wheat at Iskenderun from Port from Klaipeda and MV NANA MOON’s 10,000 tonnes loaded in Ukraine due to the reported presence of Tilletia controversa.

The Romanian Sulina Canal Authority’s practices are putting enormous pressure on Ukrainian farmers and exporters Over 90 vessels are currently waiting for passage the Sulina Canal, while the Port Reni almost empty. It is directly obstructing Ukraine’s exports via Danube.

Sunflower harvesting is expected to start shortly, with the 2026 crop currently discussons estimated at around 13.5 MMT. Crushing is projected at approximately 12.0 MMT. However, due to the closure of the POC ports, September crushing is expected to be limited to around 900 KMT.

Just spoke with a Turkish wheat buyer. They now require a guarantee that cargo is free from Tilletia controversa(0%)a guarantee exporters cannot realistically provide. 3 vessels are already reportedly rejected in Turkey. This may become an even bigger issue than than port closure

Our #wheat and #barley harvest was completed. Like many of our fellow farmers across Ukraine, we refuse to sell our wheat at $135/MT at the farm gate. When Ukrainian wheat is trading at around $265/MT FOB in Romania, simply do not reflect its true value. A full year's hard work

Visited our wheat fields today. Some parcels look excellent, others are below expectations due to uneven rainfall and the challenge of managing large acreage. Overall, we're not unhappy with where we stand and remain hopeful for the weeks ahead.

😎😎

Turkey’s 3 MMT import quota pushed posted port prices up by ~USD 7 today. Buyers who know the real supply situation are willing to pay premiums up to USD 12 vs yesterday. This should support barley prices as well. Expectations are positive.

Turkish Grain Board has anounced a 3 MMT import quota with 5% duty, until 31.07.2026. Current CIF equivalent price for corn in Turkey is around $303/MT, a $45/MT gap vs. Ukrainian corn. Likely, the prices may rise by at least $25-30/MT into this period. Exports continue…

US forward wheat curve is clearly pricing higher. What’s driving this? If the US is largely energy self-sufficient, is this about fertilizer costs, or is the market seeing tighter supply ahead (weather, acreage, stocks)? Feels like more than just cost — expectations look elevated