Building new fun stuff
Kanagawa
Joined May 2023
- Tweets1.2K
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- Followers307
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Nag retweeted
We might see some hedge fund liquidation tomorrow, but at $34.20, EWZ is trading at 7.6x forward earnings, which seems like a good entry point.
Nag retweeted
JUST IN: 🇧🇷 Brazil's largest oil company Petrobras $PBR crashes over 10% after Lula da Silva wins Brazil's presidential election, defeating Flávio Bolsonaro.
Nag retweeted
FYI for anyone in AI who wasn’t in crypto in 21, the thing that comes after the blowoff top is fraud season
Nag retweeted
not only am i not worried about the crypto community's ability to handle the upcoming ai/quantum threat, i will venture to say that in the next 2 yrs the world will realize crypto is far better prepared for it than the rest of the internet and finance. we've had a trillion dollar *irreversible* honey pot for a decade, producing a far more battletested system and adversarial security culture than pretty much anywhere else on earth.
Nag retweeted
Im be victory. Why?
I'm not afraid of pain.
Pain fear of me.
Too much you white man too fear pain. Not me. I grow in pain. Im born by pain. Raise by pain. I become pain. I command pain. This pain look at me and show fear. I look at pain, then you look at my eyes: I no fear pain
Nag retweeted
It’s a bit brutal but BTC is probably going to be the big winner of the AI revolution. I don’t think it will suffer any hacks, the scripting language formal verification is very advanced and work in formalizing the protocol too. Nodes running on different hardware make it very robust against hardware vulnerabilities, and their sources are probably one of the most audited code in the world. Combine that with self sovereignty which protects against political backslash from K shaped economy and acceleration of margins flowing to capital, I don’t see much else. To be honest this is my macro view but it’s a pretty grim one.
Nag retweeted
We went from:
> Anthropic could wipe out humanity
> Astra is AGI
> Software is worthless
To:
> AI isn’t even that useful
> Anthropic’s growth is disappointing
> OpenAI has zero moat
In like a month.
Crazy how the human mind works, huh?
Nag retweeted
SemiAnalysis's Dylan Patel predicts OpenAI and Anthropic could reach $600–700 billion in combined revenue by December 2027--and raises the possibility of $1.5 trillion by year-end
“As far as AI’s impact on the U.S. economy, if AI revenue is only $3 trillion in 2031, then, yeah, we’ll have big problems.
“But I’m of the belief that we can get to $600 billion or $700 billion across OpenAI and Anthropic alone by December of next year.
“I’m of the opinion that you can get to $1.5 trillion, maybe even by the end of 2027, with just those two companies. So that’s the end of 2027. Then the payback is clear, right? You know, where they’re getting that from.
“Ultimately, the capacity that people are building out is matched to what they think business is coming to. There’s always going to be a mismatch, if we’re in the building phase, between how much infrastructure you’re spending on and the AI revenue, because today’s AI revenue is really based on the infrastructure you spent on in prior years.”
$QCOM CFO says its Amazon deal strengthens the path to Qualcomm’s data-center targets, while progress in “new areas” could drive a beat--and expects it to be reflected in the stock
“And we’ve given proof points now. We just talked about an Amazon deal. Very excited to discuss that. This is a 10-year, $60 billion transaction that we just entered into. A portion of that is committed.
“I think it gives us a very, very increasingly optimistic shot at achieving the targets we’ve set out: $5 billion next year and, in 2029, $15 billion. We could probably do better than that, given how we are progressing in these new areas.
“And then finally, what I’ll say is there’s a lot of new technology that we’re going to deliver on the data-center side, because that market is changing. I think what is required in the data center has gone beyond the GPU: being able to deliver high-performance, low-power computing that solves different problem statements beyond just processing strength. We’re positioned to do that.
“So, just excited. I think we’re okay with people saying, ‘Show me,’ because we’re going to show that over the next several months, and I’m sure it’ll get reflected in the stock.”
______
For the full set of takeaways from Qualcomm's CFO interview: firesidealpha.substack.com/p…
Nag retweeted
btw if you are sufficiently ASI-pilled the correct thing to do is not to save but to maximize consumption now
in the unfortunate realizations of p(doom) it doesn't matter how much money you have cuz you are dead
in the case of aligned AI under fast takeoff we are going to have universal high income and all gonna be rich
if the singularity is approaching anyways there is no reason to save any of your money
I'm not saying I think recursive self-improvement is gonna hit soon but I can def see the argument
can confirm at least a few traders at @JaneStreetGroup @citsecurities @WeAreHRT who I know can't pay their credit cards fully every month
between the taxes (biggest expense), the mortgage on the penthouse / brownstone, the private school tuition, the two international vacations a year, and the second mortgage in Hamptons / Montauk, expenses add up pretty quickly
Nag retweeted
Starknet has $160M TVL and $9k 24H fees
What are we actually doing here lmao
Nag retweeted
if u r bearish because “ai breaks crypto”, one observation that should give u pause is that a looot of ppl seem to think this is a quantum computer story, when it’s in fact a classical algorithm story. i bet 99% of ppl who sold their coins don’t even know wtf the difference is.
Nag retweeted
over the next 5yrs, the probability of a us debt crisis and the probability of any individual tech company getting existentially disrupted by ai are materially higher than the probability of ai/quantum breaking crypto
so sell ur btc, but sell it into what? cash and bonds that are going to 0? or tech companies facing existing threats while also in a giant reflexive bubble? or yet something else that u did 2hrs of “due diligence” and convinced urself u understand?
the point is, if u r spooked by the ai/quantum risk and sold ur coins, u r almost certainly misjudging magnitude of this risk vs the risks of other assets u r sold ur coins into.
Nag retweeted
We got finance bros and funds doing all sorts of modeling and DCF work and then you got Camillo turning $20K or whatever into $100Ms doing stuff like this lol 😂
Chris Camillo explains why $DASH is a “secondary trade” behind the GTA 6 release because more people will be ordering food from home while playing GTA 6
“DoorDash is going to do phenomenal… for 60 days, do you know how much DoorDash is going to be ordered in America?”
