Columnist, @opinion. Founder, Unison Advisors. Hoosier. (KAY-sarr)
Washington, DC
Joined October 2015
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Nir Kaissar retweeted
Spot on > The animal spirits that normally accompany and propel stock bubbles are in short supply in this distrusted bull market, @nirkaissar says bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
The more people see a bubble, the less likely there is one.
My latest @opinion.
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Rising US interest rates this decade show why allocating to stocks and bonds based on age can be very costly.
My latest @opinion.
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Nir Kaissar retweeted
Seniors! Rise up and deliver yourself from excessive bondage and its puny returns! Focus on risk, not age, in your portfolio. Sound investment advice from The Doctor, aka the invaluable, data-driven @nirkaissar bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Nir Kaissar retweeted
Join @johnauthers, @TimOBrien, @nirkaissar, @AllisonSchrager, @RonBrownstein and @skgreen on Oct. 21 for a live conversation about the forces shaping America’s next chapter.
If you're a bloomberg.com subscriber, register here: bit.ly/4rwTcet
A well-balanced bond market is something to cheer, not fear. My latest @opinion.
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Bulls value the market using forward earnings estimates. Bears do it using trailing, reported earnings.
The gap between the two resulting valuations (P/E ratios) for the S&P 500 is at a record high.
That's because S&P 500 has posted YoY double-digit earnings growth (or close to it) for 33 consecutive months.
That kind of growth has almost always been followed by a period of contracting earnings.
My latest @opinion.
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Can you make hundreds of billions and still be overleveraged? Yes, yes you can.
I count up the debt and obligations of Nvidia and the hyperscalers. Some are stretched to the limit.
My latest @opinion.
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Nir Kaissar retweeted
AI chatbots such as ChatGPT and Claude offer anyone who cares to ask easy-to-understand investing advice that rivals what you'll get from most financial advisers, @nirkaissar says (via @opinion) bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Chatbots are surprisingly good financial advisors. And they're free. My latest @opinion.
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Nir Kaissar retweeted
Just 13 companies are projected to produce half of the S&P 500’s revenue growth over the next four years. That’s beginning to concern investors, @nirkaissar says (via @opinion) bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
The market isn't a bubble, but it's relying on too few companies for future growth.
Number of companies contributing 50% of S&P 500 revenue growth:
Last 5 years: 27
Next 4 years projected: 13
At 80% threshold:
Last 5 years: 104
Next 4 years projected: 70
My latest @opinion.
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
The US equity risk premium is about 2.3% by my calculation, which does not scream bubble.
But the devil is in the earnings. The difference between forward and cyclically adjusted earnings is the largest since at least 1990.
My latest @opinion.
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Nir Kaissar retweeted
SpaceX is not in the S&P 500. That’s a good thing, says @nirkaissar 🎥
Nir Kaissar retweeted
great color & charts > everyone should read > The S&P 500 won’t include SpaceX for at least a year. Sticking to its guns is the right move for the world’s most widely tracked index, @nirkaissar says bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Good on S&P 500 for sticking to its process and not fast tracking SpaceX into the index.
My latest @opinion.
Abel is charting a new path at Berkshire.
My latest @opinion.
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
If SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic's growth fall short of huge expectations, their IPOs will be a massive wealth transfer from ordinary to private investors and a major blow to the appeal of public markets.
My latest @opinion.
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Investors pulled a net $116 billion from hedge funds in North America last year, a sign that hedge funds may be going the way of mutual funds.
My latest @opinion.
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
