old school degen (@notyetadegen) header
old school degen (@notyetadegen) profile picture

used to believe in cash flows and good governance. increasingly embrace the chaos

Singapore
Joined January 2019
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Makes a lot of sense if you think about what the jobs are to be done
卫视出人才啊
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View from Asia: There is Jensen and there Justin. Choose your fighter wisely!
6月初就知道黄仁勋和Alice Huang的瓜了,这在算力圈也不是啥大的秘密。 整个故事挺唏嘘,不过可以明确的一点是,老黄是个好人,保全了女方,至少她现在在很安全的地方,自己承担了责任。 Alice Huang的老公是其前合伙人。 Alice Huang之前所在的 Megaspeed 算是中国算力圈的黄埔军校,里面的人后来分散到了各个地方。 Megaspeed前身是游戏公司第七大道,背后股东主要是各大游戏公司,包括《传奇》的运营方世纪华通。 Megaspeed的操作路径,是比较常见的手法,把东南亚当跳板。 以新加坡主体,向英伟达合规下单,拿到配额,Megaspeed对于自己和英伟达的良好合作关系也从来不藏着掖着,直接在官网挂上了英伟达支持。 设备运到马来西亚、印尼自建数据中心落地,对外宣称算力本地自用、对外出租。 这些芯片运送到Megaspeed于2024年初在马来西亚设立的子公司Speedmatrix。 后来,美方核查时发现一个巨大疑点,马来西亚机房内大量服务器原封不动、未拆箱,没有上电部署痕迹。 Speedmatrix注册地址在吉隆坡郊外,但是现场却无人办公。 Megaspeed以后,美国也开始封堵“用大客户身份+东南亚数据中心外壳”模型,以及传统的NCP身份不再是100%阿暖。 所以,我看着B300现货从半年前还是几百万一路跳涨到现在2000万,一切都是连锁反应。 但无论如何,中国的算力还是会继续发展。 多年后回看,说不定这就是改变中国乃至全球AI算力发展的历史性事件。 有幸吃瓜。
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View from Asia: What bigtech CEO isn’t surrounded by a royal court, harem and group of lackeys? “Obviously” almost all are “running influence opps” on the CEO. Hard to assume much here - when info is almost always filtered and KTVs and ketamine are too normal to be kompromat
For the MSS, trying to get close to Jensen Huang would not be about trade secrets. This would be a political case: both from access to political insights in DC and for political influence. The first is bad enough, because of the circles he ran in. The second though is what we often forget about the MSS: they want to influence as much as collect intelligence. Nvidia sits at the crux of a core technology that Beijing has determined has near existential consequences for their view of global rivalry and underpins comprehensive national power going forward. How do they not try to influence, given how the MSS views their mission? If the MSS tried to get close to Huang, then there are many others who should be thinking about counterintelligence risks that probably have not been.
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View from Asia: Prof G is loved by those in State/DoD locally, he and Swisher have repeatedly called for political violence and jailing of certain people they are being paid eight figures to broadcast silly opinions and appointed to government boards What’s the business?
I am a professor at the @UofCalifornia. I am appalled by the conduct of one of its Regents, Scott Galloway, appointed in August by Governor Newsom. @profgalloway is one of only 26 voting Regents entrusted with governing a university system serving hundreds of thousands of students & employing tens of thousands of faculty & staff. Twice, first on a live Pivot episode featuring Hillary Clinton & on Prof G with Fareed Zakaria, Galloway called Elon Musk a “traitor to the West.” He invoked Julius & Ethel Rosenberg, who were executed for espionage, and declared that Musk should be held to the same standards. He didn’t explicitly demand Musk’s execution. But invoking the deaths of two convicted spies while calling an American citizen a traitor makes the implication hard to miss. Musk has not been convicted of treason. Indeed, “treason against the West” isn’t even an actual crime. Now imagine UCLA alumnus @BenShapiro, appointed a UC Regent, saying the same about George Soros. Would the Governor defend his right to serve? Would Regent leadership shrug and call it provocative commentary? Or would there be demands for resignation? But there’s something worse here than another of Scott’s trademark podcast rants. He sits on the Regents’ Academic & Student Affairs Committee. The committee’s charter says it oversees student conduct, faculty conduct, academic personnel, & campus climate, among other responsibilities. This is not some honorary title. The Board sets university policy, controls institutional budgets, & appoints senior university leadership. You can unsubscribe from a podcast. A student who finds Scott’s comments morally repugnant can’t unsub from the Regents. UC bylaws require Regents to serve the public trust with a “high degree of ethics and candor,” including as private citizens. Professors owe students intellectual integrity. Regents bear an even greater duty: they govern institutions that teach it. Yet a Regent serving on the committee responsible for student & faculty conduct invokes executions while labeling a fellow citizen a traitor. What does that say to our students? That intellectual restraint is expected of the governed but optional for those who govern? That standards of conduct depend on whether the target of your rhetoric is politically fashionable to despise, as long as the audience applauds? This isn’t about defending @ElonMusk. He needs no defense from me. Nor is it about silencing Scott. As if that were possible. He’s free to express his opinions, however reckless they may be. But freedom of speech is not freedom from accountability, and holding a university office of public trust is not an entitlement. There is an enormous moral chasm between exercising your right to speak recklessly and demonstrating the judgment required of one of the 26 people who govern our great public university. The UC Board of Regents isnt a podcast sponsors can boycott. It’s a public trust. One final irony. At @NYUStern, Galloway teaches Brand Strategy, including a session on crisis management. His own prescription for leadership in a crisis is unequivocal: acknowledge the problem, have leadership take responsibility, and “overcorrect.” He’s praised the departure of corporate leaders as evidence of effective crisis management. Now Galloway himself sits on the UC Board of Regents. Will he hold himself to the standards he teaches, or does accountability apply only to other people’s institutions? Professor lecture thyself! I believe Scott Galloway should seriously consider whether his continued service on the Board of Regents is consistent with the ethical standards and responsibilities of that office, or whether he should resign. I welcome the opportunity to discuss these issues with Galloway directly, including what standards we should expect of those entrusted with governing the world’s best university. Scott, you have an open invitation to join me on @Into_Impossible for an honest conversation.
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View from Asia: We are still waiting for the IRGC to unilaterally propose to end its nuclear bomb program...because of "nuclear bomb safety"...and to stop seeking FDI to fund oil capex...because that lets is fund the nuclear bomb program via other people's money 🤡
Honestly, we will survive the Return of the Woke But what we won't survive is this kind of ignorance, which is functionally indistinguishable from maliciousness. Seeing this clip of Abdul El-Sayed discussing AI and China, I'm reminded of what Robert Conquest once said: "the behavior of any bureaucratic organization can best be understood by assuming that it is controlled by a secret cabal of its enemies" Unilateral restraint by the US will not stop China from continuing in AI, nuclear technology, space, EVs, etc. It doesn't matter whether he privately hates America, because he's going to govern as though he does.
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Singapore thanks its new immigrants for their respect, social contributions and efforts to enculturate
i have to say @SingaporeAir you are huge fuckups i flew business on a DIRECT flight from singapore to europe and you somehow managed to lose my luggage and now you can’t even locate it? what in the actual fuck
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“Never in my wildest dreams did I believe it would be this easy”
Liberals are so weak minded and brainwashed that they’re going to be converting to islam in droves - after fighting against Christianity decades. They’re going to ignore 1400 years of conquests, colonization, oppression, rape, torture, slavery, famine & genocide to cosplay as muslims, “because Trump” These cartoonish retards are about to usher in the caliphates conquest in overtime - out of pure self righteous, virtue signaling ignorance Liberals: you people are literally the stupidest and most indoctrinated humans in American history. Holy shit you people are retarded.
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View from Asia: Who’s paying this guy? His comments are extremist, divisive, often make little sense - and it’s hard to beleive his work product would make him $100m in a free market. Why is he where he is?
Scott Galloway calls Elon Musk a “traitor to the West” and invokes the Rosenbergs, who were EXECUTED after WWII. GALLOWAY: “We took the Rosenbergs and put them up against a wall and executed them for being traitors.” “And I realize this is an incendiary statement, but I’ll make it and I believe it. I think Elon Musk is a traitor to the West.” “If this had happened in any other age where we were not obsessed with innovators and money, a much different reaction would be playing out to Elon Musk.” These people are absolutely unhinged. CONTEXT: Scott Galloway is not some random but a bestselling author with a top podcast who regularly appears on cable news. His net worth is over $100 million, and he’s openly suggesting Musk deserves death. This is what the Democratic Party has become, and people voted for it.
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This also tells you something about the value of AI capex and buying chips: it’s gets returns! Even when the price is multiples of the U.S. price
So now we know that the IC asses not only that Alice Huang was a Chinese spy, but also that her goal was to convince Jensen to push for loosening export controls that prevent its chips from being sold to China. For anyone who still needs convincing that export controls support US leadership in AI, the best evidence is the fact that the MSS is actively trying to convince us to loosen them! Also, Nvidia’s most advanced chips remain available to Megaspeed, the Singapore-based company that Alice Huang led and that is known to be a Chinese cutout. And for some reason, @BISgov refuses to cut them off.
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Every AI company is trying to fully automate AI research; to allow the AIs to build the next AI. This is called Recursive Self Improvement (RSI). OpenAI says they are on track to do so by March 2028. Anthropic employees say they are on track to do so by 2027. The METR report below suggests they are likely right. This is a bad idea given current technology. Any mistake or misalignment in current AIs could be multiplied in each generation. We don't get another election before AI companies reach this threshold. Congress should ban RSI, this year if possible. This is a remarkably consensus opinion, supported in various versions by: -Bernie Sanders -Steve Bannon -Ralph Nader -Glenn Beck -Republican and Democratic attorneys general -Whistleblower Daniel Kokotajlo -Turing Award winner Yoshua Bengio -Humans First -Open Markets Institute -Ezra Klein -Arvind Narayanan (a Princeton computer scientist known for arguing that “AI is a normal technology”) The exact mechanism can be debated. The ban doesn't have to be permanent either (see below for both). This is not the only thing we have to do in regards to AI, far from it! But it is urgent. Congress must ban RSI.
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AI is not inevitable. This is the only appropriate response to believing AI threatens human extinction, and as more people wake up to the risk this position will look more prescient. The brigading by accelerationists is a sign of how scared they are of this actually happening. And they should be, because way more people want to stop AI than see it move faster.
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“Data for Progress” - will permanently prohibit development and deployment of AI that exceeds human intelligence 🫡
We tested @SenSanders and @RepCasar's bill to pause AI development and permanently ban the creation of AI superintelligence. It's supported by 68% of voters — including 72% of Democrats, 70% of Independents, and 63% of Republicans.
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We may actually cancel the sale of one of our mainland AI investments and will cancel the sale of a second Do nothing. Win.
There are three elements here: (1) being clueless about Chinese performance in engineering and research in general (2) being clueless about the situation in AI in particular (3) having some racist priors filling you cluelessness.
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With the end of Trump era, comes the end of AI/data center grift. Which was a scheme to create wealth for few, and illusion of prosperity for many (via stock market). And to give cover to otherwise reckless policies of wars, inflation, pollution and corruption.
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Given the mandate @SenateDems and @HouseDemocrats secured this week - there's no reason to wait for a crisis. They should move right away to #ReinInAI. Here's 10 steps they can take.
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This was not the AI election. 2028 will be the AI election. Unfortunately by then some of the worst risks might be baked in. So let's not wait till 2028 to be brave and tell the truth.
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Whether 2026 was "the AI election" is somewhat beside the point. Dem leadership BELIEVES this election is an inflection point for AI, and is acting as such. A brief recap of what we've seen so far: - Jeffries, Lieu, and Foster discussed setting up a "select committee on AI' if Dems took the House politico.com/news/2026/09/09… - Presumptive House E&C Chair Pallone said in a letter just yesterday that one of his "top priorities" is to "Rein in Big Tech’s rapidly evolving artificial intelligence by establishing strong, commonsense guardrails centered on. safety, fairness, and accountability; Provide meaningful privacy and data security protections, including protecting kids online” punchbowl.news/pallone_for_e… - Likely speaker Jeffries said in September that AI “requires decisive congressional action immediately" politico.com/live-updates/20… - Presumptive Senate Commerce Chair Cantwell released her own AI framework in October spokesman.com/stories/2026/o… - Progressive Caucus Chair Greg Casar called for oversight hearings and said of the 2026 midterm election, “in a few years we will look back on it as just the early tremor of a much bigger AI earthquake upending American politics." teapawt.net/benbrodydc/status/2117…
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View from Asia: May as well just relist in Shanghai. Can get multiple expansion by leaving the U.S. and less volatility
If you're bullish on AI (I'm not) this should be a generational once in a lifetime buying opportunity. Market is completely dislocated and automated mechanical selling is driving these names down. Tempting
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We will not accept the AI future big tech is racing to impose on us. We will not. This election is just the start. In 2027 we ban super intelligence, before is it created.
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