Oliver Fitzpatrick

With the crazy AFL fixture starting tonight there is lots of potential for ladder changes. Here are my model's thoughts on the likely ladder at the end of it all. (Round by round predictions here: ocfitz1.shinyapps.io/AFLMode…)

Here is your very own Brownlow tracker according to my model with predicted votes for each round for the predicted top 30. Something for fellow Brownlow nerds such as @jacobjewson to print off and use as the night goes on.

The model clearly has no compassion as it predicts the Giants to narrowly beat Collingwood again

My Brownlow model reckons Danger is a deserved favourite. Although it is expected to be a much closer count than last year.

Building a model for the Brownlow medal, here are the correlations between player stats and Brownlow votes on a match by match basis since 2015. Obviously this is less useful for stats like hitouts where most players get zero each week and so correlation is low.

That was awesome @kevinh1164 @Hudo47

Had a look at the best batting averages in test history across eras. Whilst more players have averaged over 40 than ever before, Smith still stands out for his time (still not comparable to Bradman though). See link for interactivity: plot.ly/~ocfitz1/9/

Another brilliant hundred from Steve Smith, but it wasn't really surprising once he got started. There are not many players in history who are better at making the most of a start, check out how the other Ashes batsmen compare in my article. sportingchancemag.com/home/a…

Results after 3000 simulations using my AFL model. Geelong's drop off means there is no clear favourite. A clear gap from 7th ranked Essendon to the rest means the 8th spot in the finals is up for grabs and none of the contenders are given more than 50% chance of making it.

Been a while since I posted a predicted ladder, but teams are now in clearly defined brackets: 1-2: Cats, Eagles 3-6: Pies, Tigers, Lions, Giants 7-9: Dons, Crows, Power 10-14: Dogs, Roos, Swans, Dockers, Hawks 15-18: Saints, Dees, Blues, Suns

Made a quick model for the @cricketworldcup. Looks like England are deserved favourites but there is no 'choke' factor considered by the model.

The model reckons there's the top 5 and then daylight, with the bottom three spots in the eight up for grabs. Also will be interesting which of the top 5 misses the double chance in the finals.

The festival of footy is over and perhaps so is the unpredictability of the first 5 weeks as shown by the model's 8/9 tips. Two poor results for the Suns sees them in wooden spoon territory, whilst Richmond and Geelong are the two teams in the premiership zone.

Essendon and Fremantle were the big risers in the model's predicted ladder after another crazy weekend of footy. Carlton also move off the bottom and the wooden spoon race becomes a bit more open thanks to poor performances from the Dogs and North.

St Kilda were the big winners of the weekend, their good start meaning the model gives them a decent chance at finals. Sydney were the big losers, now having less than 20% chance of playing finals.

The model has finally reacted to Rancless (et al) Richmond. West Coast's big win over Collingwood sees them move up with Geelong and almost in premiership territory. At the other end, Carlton are getting left behind but are still rated much higher than any recent wooden spooners.

A fair bit of movement within the model's predicted top 8 with Brisbane, West Coast and GWS all rising at the expense of Port Adelaide and Richmond.

Made this just for you @HunterGMeredith, some unexpected patterns when looking at lengths of break between matches in the AFL. It seems that teams with one or two extra days off than their opponent get a slight advantage, but teams with an extra week off are less likely to win.