By integrating the halving cycle analysis referenced in the quoted tweet with the KISS strategy outlined in the following post xitter.cf/i/status/2072069310022…, it becomes evident that the cryptocurrency market is approaching a potential bottom.
Nevertheless, with approximately 79 days remaining until the critical 890 day milestone, the possibility of a further downward move cannot be dismissed, like a final capitulation.
Irrespective of near-term volatility, I am confident that the period beginning in November 2026, and extending through the entirety of 2027 and 2028 will prove to be an exceptionally rewarding chapter for the cryptocurrency sector as a whole.
At times, the simplest analytical approaches reveal the most profound truths.
Historically, Bitcoin has taken approximately 890 days from the previous halving date to reach its cycle low.
As of today, 790 days have passed since the April 2024 halving. This places the market roughly 100 days away from the historical average timeframe for a cycle bottom.
Should the pattern hold, the next probable market bottom is expected to materialize around the last week of September through the first/second week of October 2026.
oddgems ⋈ retweeted
I'm in a weird place..
This isn't going to be a cheery post.. so apologies in advance
Been thinking a lot lately about things lately.. in a strange place
Let me explain..
The whole purpose of this account has always been to try and find interesting things early..
Spend a stupid amount of time understanding them and then try to help other people understand them too
Sometimes I've got it spectacularly right.. sometimes I've got it spectacularly wrong
The first time I really felt like I was making a genuine difference was with $QNT
Back in 2018, @quantnetwork's marketing was pretty fucking terrible
I think even @gverdian would probably be the first to tell you that himself
Overledger was fascinating.. the vision was enormous.. but there was very little information out there that ordinary people could easily understand and digest
So.. I started researching everything I could get my hands on and tried explaining it to people
Every single day.. for years
I watched over time.. a community forming around something that hardly anybody had heard of or even cared about
I'm not claiming responsibility for $QNT's success.. That would be ridiculous lol
But I know the work I was putting in made a difference to a good few people
I still see things I wrote or created back then being shared around today..
And that genuinely makes me happy
But something happened as time past and as $QNT grew
The project became bigger.. more established.. more professional..
There were more people unpacking everything.. better sources of information.. more voices.. more things happening.. and many of it better than I was capable of producing
And naturally.. the role I'd played in those early days became less important
The $QNT community of today largely have no idea who I am..
It didn't happen overnight.. but I just gradually became less relevant to something I'd once felt like a meaningful part of
And if I'm honest, I understand why..
Thats what is supposed to happen when things grow
Then along came $TAO
Back in 2022.. #Bittensor was this strange little experiment with some incredibly ambitious ideas and a tiny community..
Not many people understood what it was trying to do
But something about it was deeply fascinating..
The ambition.. the people.. the passion.. the possibility of what it might eventually become
And once again..
I felt a need to research the fuck out of it and help try to explain it to others
Years of reading.. researching.. writing.. answering questions.. and talking about something most people didn't give much of a shit about
And again.. I am in no way claiming its success is down to my dumb ass lol
But I know it made a difference
There are key people building and participating in #Bittensor today who first discovered it through this account..
And I'm incredibly proud of that
But look at $TAO today..
Its grown into this enormous, complicated ecosystem with miners.. developers.. subnet teams.. VCs.. businesses.. and people far more technical or knowledgeable than I'll ever be
There are people doing incredible work explaining every little part of it
$TAO doesn't need someone like me in the same way it once might have..
And again, thats a good thing..
Its exactly whats supposed to happen
But..
I'd be lying if I said there wasn't something strangely sad about it
You spend years helping people understand something.. and eventually it grows beyond the point where your contributions really matter anymore
Its like..
You wanted it to grow.. and you helped it grow.. and then one day you realise its outgrown you
The weird, sad thing is..
Its mirroring a lot of what I'm experiencing in my personal life right now
Which is probably why I'm writing this ramble nonsense in the first place
So.. I became a father when I was young..
And my daughter has always been the absolute jewel in my crown
I don't think I could ever properly explain how much that little girl has meant to me
When she was younger, I was her everything.. her entire fucking world
Dad could fix anything.. dad knew everything..
I was the strongest person alive
If something scared her, she came to me.. if something made her happy, she wanted to tell me..
If she needed help.. I was the person she'd look for
I was her superman
And fuck me.. theres no feeling quite like being somebodys entire world
But..
Then they grow up..
And it happens so gradually that you barely notice it
They start figuring things out for themselves..
They make friends.. they develop their own interests.. they have their own opinions.. their own problems.. their own little world that you're not always part of
They don't need you to explain everything anymore..
They stop running to you for every little thing..
And eventually.. you realise that person who once thought you were capable of absolutely anything has started to see you for what you really are..
Just a man
Yes, a dad who loves her more than anything.. but just a man nonetheless
And if I'm being completely honest..
Thats been fucking heartbreaking in a way I wasn't prepared for
Its something I have been struggling with deeply..
And not because she's doing anything wrong.. she's doing exactly what shes supposed to do
She's growing into her own person.. she's becoming independent
She's building a life that won't always revolve around me..
And I'm so incredibly proud of her every single day
But.. theres a real sadness that comes with it that I don't know if a lot of others feel or if its just me
You can be unbelievably proud of who your child is becoming.. all while desperately missing who they used to be
And theres absolutely nothing you can do about it
You can't ask them to stay little.. you can't ask them to need you the way they once did
You can't ask them to keep seeing you as Superman when they're old enough to realise that its not who you ever were..
You just have to accept that your place in their world is changing
That the version of you they needed for so many years is slowly becoming someone they don't need quite so much anymore
And I think thats the feeling I've been struggling to put into words
Well.. without rambling like a maniac, that is
Obviously..
Being a dad and talking about crypto on the internet aren't remotely comparable in terms of importance..
But theres a slight, strange similarity in the feeling
In both cases, you spend years giving something your time.. your attention.. your energy.. because you genuinely care about it..
You watch it grow.. you feel useful.. you feel like your presence matters
And then, if things go well.. it needs you less
Not because you've necessarily done anything wrong.. But because it's grown
And you find yourself standing there feeling proud of something.. while quietly grieving the place you used to have in that world
I personally think theres a particular kind of loneliness in that
And its not like you've been rejected or anything to feel it
It just happens.. and life moves forward
And the space you once occupied gradually gets smaller and smaller
And even in saying all of that.. you wouldn't change a single thing
I wouldn't want $QNT to go back to being a tiny project nobody understood just so I could feel of use again
I don't want $TAO to stop growing so I could remain one of the people helping to explain it
And I certainly wouldn't want my daughter to stay little forever just so I could keep being her hero
I want her to grow.. I want her to find her own way
I want her to become strong enough that she doesn't need me to solve every problem
I think thats what being a dad is supposed to be about
But..
Knowing that doesn't make watching it happen any easier
I suppose I'm beginning to understand that a lot of life is like this
You spend your younger years trying to become important to people..
Trying to be useful.. to have relevance in the world
To have an impact and make a difference..
And then you get older and realise that however important you were.. it isn't permanent
Communities move on and forget you exist..
People move on with their lives..
Children grow up..
The world keeps turning..
And you're left trying to figure out who you are when you're no longer needed in quite the same way
Being a dad is all I've know my entire adult life..
And being in this space doing this has been close to a decade now
I'm still incredibly grateful for everything I've been part of.. I've been lucky
I think.. I'm slowly accepting that my role in these things is changing
And maybe thats something I need to learn to be comfortable with..
Because I don't think the answer is to desperately try to remain important or relevant
Or to resent the fact that something has grown beyond you
I think you just have to find a way to be happy that you were there when it mattered and had a hand in it at all
Even if it doesn't matter quite so much anymore
And with my daughter..
I know she'll always be my little girl.. even when I'm no longer the centre of her world
My hope is that as she gets older and life gets more complicated.. she'll always know I'm here
She doesn't have to think I'm Superman.. and she doesn't have to need me every day
I just hope she has a little place for me in the life she's building
I guess what I'm trying to say is..
There's a difference between wanting to be needed.. and wanting to be loved
I think getting older is learning to live without the first.. while hoping you never lose the second one
I don't really have some uplifting conclusion to all of this
Apologiees for the long emotional ramble
At the end of the day.. I'm not whatever you guys think I am
I'm just a dad watching his little girl grow up.. and a bloke on the internet watching things he once helped explain grow into something that no longer needs him
And I'm proud of all of it.. I really am
I just didn't realise that watching things become everything you hoped they would be.. could sometimes feel so much like losing so much
I'll stop rambling now..
This is a harsh reality of the world we live in.
I wouldn’t say everyone is ungrateful. I’ve been lucky to connect with many grateful and wonderful people too.
But honestly, some of my own poor choices also deserve the blame.
Peace! ✌🏻
I’ve seen people blame you directly when they lose money on a coin you once mentioned.
But you must have mentioned NEAR at least 500 times over the last five years and praised its potential countless times. How many people must have made money from it?
Yet, it’s disappointing to see that when people profit from coins you’ve talked about, they rarely give you any credit.
Human beings can be so ungrateful. When they lose money, it’s your fault. When they make money, it’s all their own achievement!
2/2
Similarly, $NEAR ecosytem could experience something like @Pumpfun or @ponsdotfamily (on robinhood chain) - Few early platforms include @justhootfun (1.7m mcap) & @nearlytrade (2.4m mcap)
@wormhole 's (87m mcap) retracement almost completed, could start its next legup soon.
$NEAR is the next "BIG THING" in crypto.
In my opinion, if you're not investing in @NEARProtocol and it's eco-system projects, you're missing out on some amazing future ROI.
It's like investing in Ethereum in its early days.
Mark my word, save this tweet!
1/2
@nillion (45m mcap) is an amazing project.
@Aptos (720m mcap) continues to impress me.
@flow_blockchain (50m mcap) and @SkaleNetwork (26m mcap) could surprise many by rising from their ashes.
@NEARProtocol (6.4B mcap) & @avax (4.2B mcap) are solid long term holds.
2/2
Similarly, $NEAR ecosytem could experience something like @Pumpfun or @ponsdotfamily (on robinhood chain) - Few early platforms include @justhootfun (1.7m mcap) & @nearlytrade (2.4m mcap)
@wormhole 's (87m mcap) retracement almost completed, could start its next legup soon.
In my opinion, this is a much-needed correction.
A healthy market thrives on these retracements - after all, nothing climbs in a straight line forever.
Not a financial advice: Load up on these dips as aggressively as you can, then wait.
Time is your greatest ally.
In my opinion, this is a much-needed correction.
A healthy market thrives on these retracements - after all, nothing climbs in a straight line forever.
Not a financial advice: Load up on these dips as aggressively as you can, then wait.
Time is your greatest ally.
We got some amazing mini rallies on many altcoins & finally we got this dump.
Difficult to say if we go lower for now.
The market is giving us opportunities to load once again.
I won't classify this as a "dump" but simply a small dent in an upcoming multi-year uptrend.
Three layers of confidentiality. All live on Aptos mainnet.
• Identity layer: Keyless Accounts
• Amounts layer: Confidential $APT
• Intent layer: Encrypted Mempool
Each one is opt-in, and each one addresses a different part of what's visible onchain.
Blackrock is dominating the Aptos ecosystem.
Some $157M of @Aptos $194M worth of native tokenised real world assets is made up of @BlackRock's tokenised $BUIDL fund.
Blackrock's core tokenised product has an even larger presence on the @Avax L1 chain.
$W @wormhole was termed as a dead project with no value accrual system and having a horrible chart.
But this one might just go down as one of the most legendary articles ever written, right up there with the piece I did on @quantnetwork about @gverdian years ago.
IYKYK 💯
Amazing to see projects popping up left and right.
Altcoins are absolute goldmines right now!
It feels like we’re reliving the legendary October 2017 all over again. 🔥














