use.sh: provision dedicated cloud resources on the public internet, in under 1 second:

We're in the largest capex cycle in human history and people are beginning to wonder if there should be cause for concern, and if we should worry about a "2008 for data center buildout." Some notes on 1) why we should be cautious, but also, 2) why this time it might be different: Reasons to be cautious: - Hyperscalers are financing using debt instead of free cash flow and some question marks 1) future demand, 2) power constraints, the capital markets because 3) the 30-year is above 5.5% - "is this the opening theme to black monday?" If someone can make 5% clipping coupons, why take on equity exposure with multiples already has high as they are? - Should we be worried about 2008 for data center buildouts? One argument why "this time it's different," or at least, some reasons why depending on deal structure, distressed compute assets might be different than distressed real estate: - In 2008, subprime housing + the surrounding contagion continued because there is only so much demand for housing in a given city. a house in one city is fundamentally different than a house in another city. - And housing -> jobs -> local economy, but with compute, it might be easier to recoup value. - Deal structure and underwriting. it's hard to package and ship a foreclosed home in a depressed market. and a home takes a long time to pay for itself. but compute, not so much. this doesn't apply to assets that can't move - A house is a house - you can re-zone but the market for RRE in a given market doesn't change that much - people generally only need one home - You can do other things with compute assets acquired at a discount. - Compute is more fungible than housing: core chips and components can be repossessed, repurposed, or shipped anywhere. demand for rare earth metals, components, parts, etc. - Compute has more liquid, global markets, we're beginning to see spot markets and curves for future compute capacity - Compute assets can be broken down into smaller pieces: i.e whereas there isn't demand for 1/1000th of a repossessed home, I and others probably have a bid for fractional components of a data center build-out. - If tomorrow someone told me that a lender is selling distressed compute assets at foreclosure/discount, my due diligence would largely consist of getting wire instructions. A home is a home, a data center is a lot of lego pieces, and lego pieces could carry stronger residual value because 1) they require more specialization to build, 2) supply is controlled by only a few companies, and 3) they're useful elsewhere.

3 minute time drift: Just enabled NTP on one of the gateways, and wow, it's easy to forget how hard it is to keep track of time accurately and independently. uptime on this router is about ~315 days.