Operator | On-Chain

Friday Weekly Watch. US spot ETFs, Oct 26–29: $BTC +$441M, green 4 of 4 days $ETH -$276M, red 4 of 4 $SOL -$61M, more than its prior two weeks combined Buyers didn't leave. They picked $BTC. $INJ has no spot ETF, so no pipe there. SEC deadline on ETHA staking is today.

$ETH ETFs lost $1.35B in October. 17 of 20 sessions red. Tomorrow is the SEC deadline on adding staking to BlackRock's ETHA. Yield is a new pitch. But approval with flows still red would say the buyer isn't back yet.

$BTC ETFs are back in the green for October. Three straight inflow days (+$424M) took month-to-date from −$313M to about +$110M, with Fed day adding +$137M. But $IBIT did $136M of that. Price slipping under $80K makes today's print the real test.

$BTC ETFs just put two green days back to back: +$110M Monday, +$176M Tuesday. That's +$286M, about 37% of last week's −$774M two-day exit. Buyers are stepping in before the Fed, not waiting for it.

Inside $ETH ETFs, two funds are moving in opposite directions. $FETH: 6 green days in a row, +$67M. $ETHA: −$336M over the same 6 days. This isn't every $ETH ETF holder heading out. Most of the selling sits in one fund.

BlackRock runs both funds. In October they went opposite ways. IBIT ($BTC): +$865M ETHA ($ETH): −$1.13B, with zero green days Same issuer, same shelf. Buyers are choosing $BTC.

Last week every ETF board got better. Only one turned green. $BTC: +$301M, after −$228M. $ETH: −$221M, after −$320M. $SOL: −$18M, after −$26M. $BTC buyers are back. $ETH and $SOL are just leaking slower.

Week ahead, I'm watching DEX volume first. Weekday DEX volume fell 12% this week, $46.7B to $41.0B, and no day cleared $9B. The week before hit $10.6B. If $BTC ETF flows stay choppy, I want on-chain activity to turn before I trust a bounce.

Stablecoin supply is down $5.1B since Oct 7, from $307.9B to $302.8B. This week both $USDT (−$1.0B) and $USDC (−$0.9B) shrank. ETF outflows get the headlines. The quieter signal is dry powder leaving the chain.

Stablecoin supply is down $5.1B since Oct 7, from $307.9B to $302.8B. This week both $USDT (−$1.0B) and $USDC (−$0.9B) shrank. ETF outflows get the headlines. The quieter signal is dry powder leaving the chain.

$BTC ETFs dumped -$635.6M on Oct 22, the biggest one-day outflow since June 25. That single session erased about 60% of the +$1.07B that came in Mon-Wed. Week still green at ~+$439M, but the bid is thinner than it looked.

Second red ETF week, but the shapes differ. $BTC: -$228M, outflow down ~66% from -$679M. $ETH: -$320M, only ~41% smaller. $SOL: -$25M again. Not shrinking at all. $BTC is cooling. $ETH and $SOL are still leaking.

The "1M $ETH waiting to unstake" headline is mostly Lido merging validators. beaconcha.in splits it: ~264K $ETH actually exiting, ~766K in consolidations. That ETH stays staked. Entry queue is still ~1.26M. Not an exodus.

$500M fresh $USDC minted overnight (Whale Alert). Sounds like dry powder. But net supply is still ~$2.7B below late September. DefiLlama and CoinGecko agree. Mints are refilling redemptions, not growing the pile yet.

Friday Weekly Watch. ETF risk-off week 2 — and $ETH bled harder than $BTC. $ETH −$250M · $BTC −$146M · $SOL −$13M (Oct 12–15). One bounce day each, then outflows resumed. $SOL red every session since Oct 5. $INJ still has no spot ETF. Same pipe, different ranking.

$BTC ETF buyers didn't stick around. +$176M on Oct 13, then −$261M on Oct 14 as the hot CPI print hit. One green day is a bounce, not a trend.

$ETH ETFs finally printed green. Oct 13: +$24.8M — first inflow after ten straight red sessions. Streak broken. Still a small print after ~$783M out.

$ETH ETFs just printed a tenth straight red session. Monday: −$85.4M (Farside). Streak since Sep 29: about −$783M. Product bid still walking out after the exodus week.

$ETH ETFs just logged nine straight red sessions, about −$697M since Sep 29 (Farside). Overnight, one whale went the other way: sold 410 $BTC (~$34M) on Hyperliquid and bought $ETH on-chain. ETF buyers stepped back. At least one big wallet stepped in.

Sunday quiet. Venue books aren't. Patricio Worthalter parked another 4,000 $ETH (~$10M) on Gemini — Arkham. That's a second 4K print this week. ETF tape sleeps. Exchange deposits don't.