Opentrack (@operdoor2) profile picture

Opentrack

@operdoor2

Hi guy's We track opendoor data.

 Taiwan
Joined March 2022
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Photo by Opentrack (@operdoor2)Photo by Opentrack (@operdoor2)Photo by Opentrack (@operdoor2)Photo by Opentrack (@operdoor2)Photo by Opentrack (@operdoor2)Photo by Opentrack (@operdoor2)Photo by Opentrack (@operdoor2)Photo by Opentrack (@operdoor2)Photo by Opentrack (@operdoor2)Photo by Opentrack (@operdoor2)
提供一個自己觀察 $OPEN 的指標 Kaz曾經說過，如果要損益兩平， 大約每月要賣出2000間房屋 當你看到Pending的房屋接近2000時 會是不錯的投資機會 因為這個月的pending 將會是下個月的sold 免費分享給大家 docs.google.com/spreadsheets…
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Buying 400+ homes a week while only selling ~200 leads to aging inventory—is this really a sustainable strategy? $OPEN
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Comparing P. Sold directly between the current week (10/25) and last week (10/18) creates a misleading conclusion due to lagging relist data.
Image from Opentrack (@operdoor2)
Image from Opentrack (@operdoor2)
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Both cohorts started with virtually identical contract volumes before relistings (296 vs 294). The difference in current P. Sold (279 vs 249) is simply because 10/18 has had an extra week to realize fallen-through deals (15.31% relisted vs 5.74% for 10/25).
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Historically, the final relist rate converges around ~30%. The current week’s net pending looks higher only because the data hasn't matured yet, not because organic sales were significantly stronger.
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$OPEN Weekly Pending Tracker (Before Relistings) ​September (4-week total: 1,227) • 09/06: 300 • 09/13: 292 • 09/20: 297 • 09/27: 338 ​October (4-week total: 1,134) • 10/04: 295 • 10/11: 249 • 10/18: 294 • 10/25: 296 October pending count is down ~7.6% MoM vs September
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At the end of September, Opendoor still had 1,100 homes in pending status. Now, as of late October, not only has it failed to break out, but sales velocity has actually slowed down. ​ $OPEN
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非常希望我的毛利率統計是錯誤的 Rev. 808M÷(75%)=1.07B Margin：5% $OPEN
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Quick reminder: I’ve been tracking Opendoor data since before 2022. Back then, Datadoor ripped off my idea and charged investors $40/month for it. Today, Datadoor is gone (the founder got margin called after an earnings print). I’m still here.
Opentrack (@operdoor2) profile pictureOpentrack@operdoor221 Mar 2022
Hi Guys I'm 股海冥燈 This is my new account Opendoor 3/14~3/20(11th week) Pending homes:966 Pending margin:16.51％ Pending Avg price:407K New list homes:740 New list margin:20.12％ Inventory List margin:17.94% Inventory List homes:4169 Inventory Avg price:430k
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Opendoor had 237 homes go pending this week, but 109 were returned to market—leaving a net of just 128 homes. ​With ~4,000 active listings, that’s 4,000 ÷ 128 = 31 weeks to clear inventory (~7.7 months). ​At this absorption rate, isn't $OPEN in serious trouble? $OPEN
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The proportion of homes listed for more than 120 days continues to increase. Opendoor is in trouble. $OPEN
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The percentage of homes listed on OpenDoor that have been for sale for more than 120 days has reached over 15%. It seems we are repeating the same mistakes. $OPEN
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The following is the discrepancy between the data I tracked and Opendoor's financial statements. $OPEN
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In Q1, I tracked 1,467 Opendoor home sales vs. 1,921 reported in earnings (a ~76% capture rate). ​In Q2, I logged 1,787 sales. Assuming the same capture rate, that suggests ~2,350 total sales in the earnings report. $OPEN
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However, since I didn't track any of the new markets added in Q2, my capture rate likely dropped to 70-75%. Based on this, I estimate Q2 revenue will land around $900M–$950M.
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Whether looking at my own data or the info on https://opendoor.arm @Opendoor's pending count has stopped growing for 3 months now since April. Wondering what’s going on over at @opendoor 🤔" @nejatian
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Replying to @Opendoor
@Opendoor So far for Q2 I’ve tracked about 1,558 home sales with a gross margin of around 10.4%. But since this is usually about 2% higher than the official financials, the actual margin is probably around 8%. Based on tracking 75% of the deals in Q1, (1/2) $OPEN
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I estimate Q2 will hit around 2,400 closely-watched sales and about $900M in revenue. ​But here’s the more alarming part: the margins on Opendoor’s current active listings are hovering around 7.8%. This implies Q3 margins might drop to just 7%, which is a major red flag $OPEN
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Recently, the number of listings on @Opendoor has been steadily increasing, but pending and sold properties haven't kept up, which is a bit concerning. $OPEN
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April Summary: @Opendoor ( $OPEN ) Key Metrics & Q2 Projections 🏠📊 ​April was a strong month for Opendoor. Here’s a breakdown of the latest data: ​Inventory : 811 new listings in April (New high for 2026). ​Sales Activity: 581 homes sold 716 currently pending. (1/6)
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more replies
Total projected sales: ~1,831 (captured data). ​Adjusting for data coverage (85-90%), total Q2 sales should land around 2,150 units. ​Estimated Q2 Revenue: ~$810M. (5/6)
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Finally, what I most want to improve is that it takes about 30 days from pending to sale. I hope this time can be significantly shortened. (6/6) $OPEN #Faster @nejatian @morganb
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