CORNING $GLW Q3’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS 🔹 Revenue: $5.08B (Est. $5.02B) 🟢; +19% YoY 🔹 Adj. EPS: $0.91 (Est. $0.88) 🟢; +36% YoY 🔹 Core Gross Margin: 40.5%; +150 bps YoY 🔹 Core Operating Margin: 22.7%; +310 bps YoY Q4 Guide: 🔹 Revenue: $5.2B-$5.3B (Est. $5.21B) 🟡 🔹 Adj. EPS: $0.96-$1.00 (Est. $0.94) 🟢 Segment Net Revenue: 🔹 Optical Communications: $2.4B; +44% YoY 🔹 Glass Innovations: $1.5B; -3% YoY 🔹 Automotive: $470M; +4% YoY 🔹 Solar: $436M; +37% YoY 🔹 Life Sciences & Emerging Growth: $290M; +1% YoY Announcements: 🔹 Secured four long-term, multibillion-dollar customer agreements, including with Verizon and AT&T 🔹 Solar revenue stream progressing toward more than $3B Other Q3 Metrics: 🔹 GAAP Gross Margin: 37.3% 🔹 GAAP Operating Margin: 18.8% 🔹 Operating Cash Flow: $1.1B 🔹 Adjusted Free Cash Flow: $661M Comments: 🔸 “faster adoption of our innovations helped us double our Gen AI sales year over year in the quarter, outpacing GPU unit growth.” 🔸 “we expect our outstanding performance to continue.”

早安！10/27 外電綜合整理 - 2327國巨: 美系重申正向 美系大行預期3Q 毛利率40.4%、OPM 29.1%，高出市場共識。展望4Q，預期漲價與AI需求預期持續推動營收成長及利潤率擴張。在即將到來的法說會上，券商會關注非AI市場的需求能見度，還有各產品漲價及供需狀況，重申正向。 - 2345智邦: 美系重申正向 將辦理現金增資，美系大行表示稀釋幅度最高2%，影響可控。重申正向。 - 2360致茂：美系重申正向 美系大行預期半導體及光子技術業務持續帶動2H26成長；預期明年有將是強勁成長的一年。預期3Q毛利率60.5%，季持平；OPM季增至39.3%。重申正向。 - TPCA 2026: 美系大行表示CCL是否會用PTFE會在明年中決定，在此同時也在試其他方法如氫樹脂（HC）基材、HC＋PTFE混合材料，以及苯並環丁烯（BCB）基材的CCL。 此外，觀察薄型E-glass仍是短缺，將既有產線轉換為LDK1／2及T-glass玻纖布，以滿足強勁的AI需求。 最後看到ABF的壓合設備交期至少兩年，意即全新建廠的ABF載板產能，最早只能從2029年開始逐步放量。明年載板尺寸又放大，券商持續正向看待載板產業。總結：券商對覆蓋裡的台燿、台光電、金居、欣興、南電、金像電等持正向看法不變。 #每日外電

Nan Ya Plastics 南亞 1303.TW As a follow-up to the "mini article" that I wrote at the bottom of this post. I have not yet performed detailed financial analysis on the company but I did uncover some REALLY interesting information on the corporate structuring of the Nan Ya trio of companies. → I want to quickly point out that I see barely any mentions if any at all about this company which for me is bullish. Nan Ya Plastics is becoming a lot more interesting 🚨 Nan Ya Plastics 南亞 1303.TW currently owns: - ≈ 67% of Nan Ya PCB 南亞 8046.TW - ≈ 30% of Nanya technology 南亞科 2408.TW - 100% of PFG Fiber Glass, which makes electronic grade glass yarn - 100% owned electronic materials subsidiaries producing combinations of CCL, copper foil, fiberglass fabric and epoxy So 1303 owns/controls: - epoxy/resins - glass yarn/fabric - copper foil - prepreg/CCL 67% of Nan Ya PCB - ABF substrates - PCB - BT 30% of Nanya Technology - DRAM Materials + substrates/PCB + memory all inside one economic group with vertical integration- that's powerful. Vertical Integration here is VERY important: Glass shortages → they make glass Copper Foil shortages → they make CF Resin/formulation scarcity → they formulate resin CCL price inflation → they sell CCL ABF/BT substrate shortage → 67% owned nan Ya PCB sells substrates Memory recovery → 30% owned Nanya Tech. participates That's a remarkable amount of the value chain under one corporate umbrella. They have constant access to most of the scarce upstream materials and the drastic price increases pass right through directly to their margin. Nan Ya's electronic material segment reached roughly 58% of revenue in Q3 and OPM reached 30.9%. It is already mass producing M7/M8, has M9/M10 under qualification, and is developing its own HC resin as well as HVLP 4/5/6 copper foil 👀 👀 👀 1303 you have my attention ! The remaining question becomes- How does Nan Ya Plastics stand up to Outer Ninth's rigorous financial analysis ? We intend to answer that question later this week.

Elon Musk says “robot RAM needs will exceed everything else on Earth” and believes superintelligence will eventually drive even more demand through deep space compute. To put that into perspective $TSLA producing 10M Optimus robots a year would require ~720 petabytes of memory at 72GB per robot. Pretty wild for $MU and $SKHY as AI expands beyond data centers although robots use LPDDR rather than HBM so this could become a much bigger volume story.

南亞搶先推出M11材料案子 2027年在CSP客戶斬獲良好 M9的案子在自研晶片也有不錯的進度 #TPCA

Nittobo's Yuhiro Mikami Interview 📰 Nitto Boseki Co. 日東紡 3110.JP Company Positioning - Global leading supplier of high-performance semiconductor packaging substrates and high-end glass cloth for electronic equipment motherboards. - Special glass (NE/T glass, etc.) holds overwhelming market share and industry standard status. Current Market Conditions - AI server demand remains robust, with excellent demand for T glass (low CTE, warp-resistant, used for GPU/CPU) and NE/NER glass (low dielectric/low loss, used for high-speed signals). - Supply is severely tight; the company is working to improve yields to increase shipments. Demand Structure - CCL base materials for thin FCCSP and FCBGA are mainly from Japanese manufacturers. - CSP for memory/modules is stronger from Korean manufacturers. Investment Plans - Continuing large-scale investments domestically and internationally, advancing according to schedule. - Original yarn expansion: Centering on Taiwan to add melting furnaces; T glass yarn expected to contribute to mass production starting in fiscal 2027, aiming to ship as early as possible. - Domestic plans to decommission E glass melting furnaces to expand special glass production capacity. - Glass cloth expansion, with weaving processes in collaboration with Nan Ya Plastics. - Due to upward demand revisions, investment amount revised upward to 120 billion yen by fiscal 2027 (an increase of 40 billion yen from original), targeting T glass capacity at 3 times that of fiscal 2025. Competition and Differentiation - Known competitors entering the T glass market, potentially leading to a slight drop in market share, but revenue scale continues to grow. - Emphasizing over 30 years of proven track record in stably supplying high-quality T glass, upholding "Nittobo quality." Future Demand Outlook - Inference AI driving an increase in CPU volumes, with growth in dedicated ASICs/CPUs from service providers. - Packaging substrates becoming larger in size and more multi-layered at the core, with core thickness potentially doubling to 2.4–3 mm. - Special glass demand expected to remain strong in the short term; currently evaluating demand for 2029–2030 and the next wave of investment. Next-Generation Products - Recommending NER/NEZ (excellent low-Dk/Df), with partial mass production already underway. - Next-next-generation "DX II" at quartz glass level, targeting sample shipments around fiscal 2028. - Next-generation T glass "Vlex" under development (low CTE + low loss), expected to officially ship around 2028. - Emphasizing the need to pair with new resins and collaborate on substrate design to deliver high value-added products. 🔽 🔽 🔽 The interview directly confirms several of our assumptions: - T-glass and NE/NER demand remains extremely tight - Nittobo is trying to increase output through capacity additions AND yield improvement. - Taiwan glass yarn melting capacity is being expanded - E-glass furnaces in Japan are being retired/reallocated toward specialty glass (scarcity cascades 👀) - FY 2024-27 total CAPEX was raised by ¥40B to ≈120B - T-glass capacity is targeted at roughly 3x FY25 levels by FY27 - Next gen VLEX T-glass is targeted around 2028 - next gen low loss products include NER/NEZ and later DX II Key Takeaway: Even though Nittobo is undertaking a ¥120B four year CAPEX program, demand has repeatedly been revised upwards faster than their expansion plans. Another theme we are seeing throughout the passive component ecosystem- demand is increasing faster than supply, even with aggressive capacity expansion.

Nittobo 日東紡 3110.JP This is a long post but PACKED full of useful info. My comments are marked by ▶️ These are initial research tidbits and breadcrumbs for you guys. - Read to the end, there's a mini article down there 🙂 I cover a lot in this piece from Nittobo and glass fiber to CCL, materials and numerous companies. -------------------------------------------------------- "And the price hike rate for E-Glass, which isn't even top-grade, is insane." ▶️ Refer to the attached table from Citi. From Dec 2025 to Oct 2026 - 1080 cloth: Rmb 5.0 → Rmb 18.3/m ≈ +266% - 2116: Rmb 4.9 → Rmb 17.7 ≈ +261% - 7628: Rmb 4.6 → Rmb 13.1 ≈ +185% ▶️ This explains why Panasonic could issue a 200% price increase on selected conventional #ccl The upstream input has effectively tripled or quadrupled in the thinnest fabric categories. Thin glass fiber cloth and CCL are facing shortages again, with prices expected to rise by 15% next month. South Asia Securities bluntly states that the market has "no other options." A shortage of upstream raw materials is triggering a new wave of price increases, and the impact is extending to copper-clad laminates (CCL). According to supply chain sources, price hikes for glass fiber cloth and CCL are imminent, with the increase estimated at around 10-15%, set to take effect from November, though the actual hike will vary by product specs and suppliers. In particular, supply of thin glass fiber fabrics like 2116, 1080, and 1078 is especially tight. The expansion speed of looms is hitting limits, making it the biggest bottleneck in resolving the short-term supply shortage. Supply chain analysis points to supply shortages as the main driver of price increases. As manufacturers shift existing production capacity toward high-end products, supply of standard glass fiber fabrics for general electronics is getting squeezed, even as demand persists, leaving shortages of certain thin glass fiber fabrics ongoing. ▶️ Premium AI demand is distorting the entire fiberglass allocation system, including ordinary E-glass. This is the scarcity cascade bottleneck dynamics that I've been talking to you guys about since summer. Production capacity is re-routed to higher end products, so we get a decreased output of the lower grade commodity products which creates price inflation in those lower grade products as they become less available AKA supply down while demand up. Nanya Plastics says the market is currently in short supply, with many competitors pivoting strategies toward high-end product lines. Yet demand for general-purpose products remains high, and supply and product lineups aren't keeping up. The shift to high-end is clear, but shortages of general-purpose items persist, and the supply-demand imbalance hasn't been resolved. Nan Ya notes that the shortages have also shifted downstream customers' purchasing strategies. In the early stages of price hikes, customers tended to partner with suppliers offering full product lineups and diverse specs, but now with supply even tighter, it's a "no choice" situation, where securing raw materials and meeting delivery deadlines has become the focus of procurement. ▶️ I spoke about this in my note about Kinsus: "Material allocation itself has become strategic." This is an important industry read-through VERY important heading into 2027 that companies have upstream allocation so they can operate at full capacity. This is exactly why we have seen Jenson locking down upstream material supply with their announcement this week. On whether capacity expansions by major mainland China glass fiber maker China Jushi can ease the shortages, industry insiders say Jushi's new capacity is mainly geared toward 7628 heavy-weight fabric, slated for mass production in 2027. This differs from the thin fabrics currently in shortest supply. So even as new capacity comes online, the relief for thin fabrics like 2116, 1080, and 1078 will remain relatively limited. ▶️ Without going too much into it, day 1 of research has materially increased confidence in Nittobo 👀 👀 👀 On pricing, supply chain surveys show that major mainland CCL maker Kingboard has raised prices 12 times this year alone, and the price of 1080-spec E-glass fiber cloth has surged about 300% from low to high, marking an astonishing increase. ▶️ Addressed this, see attached Citi table Industry sources say abnormal shortages have hit certain glass fiber cloth specs, leading the market into irregular pricing via unusual distribution channels. The root bottleneck lies in the loom supply shortage. Supply chain estimates put global annual production capacity for related looms at about 2,400 units, potentially rising to 3,600 by 2027. However, actual production volumes and delivery increases remain unclear. After equipment installation, shifting to effective supply requires setup and mass-production ramp-up. Supply chain assessments suggest that depending on equipment deliveries, new capacity startups, and product conversion progress, the pressure from shortages could gradually ease from late 2027 into 2028. But with demand for high-end applications continuing to grow, even increased supply may leave the market tight, and rising material costs could keep getting passed on to downstream CCL and PCB makers. ▶️▶️▶️ This is IMPORTANT so i'll leave you with this- The margin outcome differs hugely on vertical position If fabric cost rises 200%, a weak laminate supplier may simply pass it through and preserve margin. A strong vertically integrated supplier may additionally make money inside the upstream material itself. This is why simply tracking the CCL ASP is insufficient, instead we must ask how much of the ASP increase becomes gross profit rather than simply compensating for raw material inflation. Using Kingboard Laminates 建滔積層板 01888.HK as a case study- The company explicitly says electronic fiberglass fabric shortages forced some competitors to reduce production, while their vertically integrated supply chain allowed them to maintain near-full utilization, raise prices and win new customer qualifications. Kingboard controls important parts of: - glass yarn -glass fabric - resin/materials - CCL This gives them upstream margin + laminate pricing power + assured supply This is why we see some analysts modelling much higher 2026 H2 margins for Kingboard. Kingboard itself says the laminate industry remains tight and that prices of fabric, yarn, copper foil and laminates continued to surge after June. I spoke about Nan Ya Plastics vertical integration in my Nan Ya business posts, but I still need to really dig into the financial structure. When including Nan Ya PCB the integrated chain is essentially: Chemical feedstocks ↓ custom resin systems ↓ glass yarn/fabric ↓ copper foil ↓ CCL/prepreg ↓ PCB ↓ BT/PP/ABF substrate This solves a remarkable amount of the supply chain under pressure Nan Ya Plastics 南亞 1303.TW Nan Ya PCB 南電 8046.TW However, I have yet to research internal transfer economics: - how much 8046 buys from 1303 - is pricing market based - is scarce material preferentially allocated internally - do upstream margins remain primarily at 1303 - does 8046 gain through lower costs or simply through supply assurance - how much consolidated AI economics ultimately pass through to 1303 shareholders Day 1 & 2 of research did not allow me to get into these details but I will do in the coming days. Meanwhile if you are interested in this, check out the 2 pieces on "Nan Ya Business" Part 1: xitter.cf/outerninth/status/2109… Part 2: xitter.cf/outerninth/status/2110… #ccl #PCB #日東紡 #建滔集团 #Tglass #Qglass

ＪＸ金属は、スマートフォンやウェアラブル端末等に使われるフレキシブルプリント基板向けに、銅原料の100％リサイクル化を実現した圧延銅箔の本格販売を開始しました。 独自の技術により、従来品と変わらない品質での安定生産を実現。資源循環とお客様のサステナビリティ推進に貢献します。 jx-nmm.com/newsrelease/2026/…

ABF substrate CCL prices are reaching ~US$1,500 per full sheet compared to US$180 for M8 laminate as end customers secure dedicated multi-year capacity agreements through 2027–2030. Sell-side consensus across House A, House B, and House F confirms that structural AI packaging shortages are driving direct customer subsidies, prepayments, and capacity bookings. House A estimates ABF substrate CCL gross margins exceed 50% and could reach 70%+, driven by expanding package sizes where a quarter sheet yields only 2–3 units by 2028, down from 6–8 units today. In server networking, House A projects Nvidia ($NVDA) Rubin Ultra switch trays starting in 2H27 will likely adopt M9/M10 CCL with Q-glass instead of PTFE, as PTFE yield runs at 10–15% versus 80–90% for M9 Q-glass. Different coverage metrics preclude a single comparable forecast range, revealing divergent focal points between pure capacity scarcity and macro headwinds. House B (dated 2026-10-21) anchors its multi-year AI substrate thesis on Unimicron securing customer capacity reservations for its Guangfu plant, where new supply releases in 2Q27 and reaches full capacity by mid-2028. Conversely, House F (dated 2026-10-22) projects that while strong FC-BGA and BGA pricing lifts Samsung Electro-Mechanics' operating margin by at least 1 percentage point to 18% (from 17%), currency headwinds trim its target price to W2.0mn from W2.4mn because a 1% won appreciation cuts operating profit by 1%+. Investors should watch the execution of 2Q27 customer-backed capacity ramps and formal Rubin Ultra tray laminate qualification. #PCB #Electronics

Goldman Sachs’ Taiwan PCB/CCL checks point to an accelerating AI hardware upgrade cycle. Customers are increasingly funding supplier capacity expansions through LTAs/prepayments, while M10 materials command ~$800/sheet vs EMC’s ~$63 blended ASP. ABF substrate CCL TAM could quadruple by 2028.

そりゃそうでしょうね 特に薄いもの そして、最上級でもないE-Glassの値上がり率がやばい 薄型グラスファイバークロスとCCLが再び品切れとなり、来月には価格が15％上昇すると予想されている。サウスアジア証券は、市場には「他に選択肢がない」と率直に述べている。 上流原料の不足が新たな価格上昇の波を引き起こし、その影響は銅箔基板（CCL）にも及んでいる。サプライチェーン関係者によると、グラスファイバークロスとCCLの価格上昇は間近に迫っており、今回の値上げ幅は10～15％程度と予想され、11月から実施される見込みだが、実際の値上げ幅は製品仕様や供給業者によって異なる。 中でも、2116、1080、1078といった薄型ガラス繊維布の供給は特に逼迫している。織機の拡張速度に限界があるため、短期的には供給不足を解消する上で最大のボトルネックとなっている。 サプライチェーンの分析によると、価格上昇の主な要因は供給不足による圧力である。メーカーが既存の生産能力をハイエンド製品にシフトするにつれ、一般的な電子機器用ガラス繊維布の供給が圧迫されているが、需要は依然として存在しており、一部の薄型ガラス繊維布の供給不足が続いている。 ナンヤ社は、現在市場は供給不足に陥っており、多くの競合他社がハイエンド製品ラインへと戦略を転換していると述べた。しかし、汎用製品の需要は依然として高く、供給と製品ラインナップが追いついていない。ハイエンド製品への流れは明らかだが、汎用製品の不足は依然として続いており、需給の不均衡は未だ解消されていない。 南亜氏は、供給不足によって下流顧客の購買方針も変化したと指摘した。価格上昇の初期段階では、顧客は製品ラインナップが充実し、多様な仕様を提供できるサプライヤーと協力する傾向があったが、供給がさらに逼迫した現在では、「選択の余地がない」状況となり、原材料の確保と納期厳守が調達の焦点となっている。 中国本土の大手グラスファイバーメーカーである中国巨石（Jushi）の生産能力拡大が供給不足を緩和できるかどうかについて、業界関係者は、巨石の新たな生産能力は主に7628厚手生地向けであり、2027年に量産開始予定であると述べている。これは現在最も供給不足となっている薄手生地の仕様とは異なる。そのため、新たな生産能力が次々と稼働したとしても、2116、1080、1078といった薄手生地の供給緩和効果は依然として比較的限定的である。 価格に関して言えば、サプライチェーン調査によると、中国本土の大手CCLメーカーであるキングボードは今年12回も価格を引き上げており、さらに1080仕様のEガラス繊維布の価格は最安値から最高値まで約300％も上昇しており、驚異的な値上がりとなっている。 業界関係者によると、一部のグラスファイバークロスの規格で異常な供給不足が発生しており、市場は異常な流通経路を通じて不規則な価格設定に陥っているという。根本的なボトルネックは、織機の供給不足にある。 サプライチェーンの推計によると、関連する織機の世界年間生産能力は約2,400台で、2027年には3,600台に増加する可能性がある。しかし、実際の生産量と納入状況の増加はまだ不透明だ。設備が設置された後、効果的な供給体制に移行するには、設置と量産体制の立ち上げが必要となる。 サプライチェーンの評価によると、設備納入、新規生産能力の稼働開始、製品転換の進捗状況によっては、2027年後半から2028年にかけて供給不足の圧力は徐々に緩和される可能性がある。しかし、ハイエンド用途の需要が継続的に増加しているため、供給が増加しても市場は逼迫した状態が続き、材料費の上昇圧力は下流のCCLおよびPCBメーカーに引き続き転嫁される可能性がある。

🍽️ DRAM devouring Vera. ▪️1.5 TB LPDDR5X memory (1 Vera CPU) ▪️12 TB SOCAMM LPDDR5X memory (x8 Vera CPUS) Every time I see this Vera CPU tray, reconfirms the DRAM demand is here to stay as the role of CPU in the Agentic AI era grows day by day. 1️⃣ Rising Number of Agents, multiple Autonomous Loops Per Core: Demanding Orchestration and Concurrency 2️⃣ Thousands of Agents API Calls & Execution, State Management 3️⃣ Decision Making Graph Logic and Flow Control 4️⃣ Semantic Search (RAG) and Vector Processing $NVDA $ARM $INTC