SinglePayer

Thought experiment: Imagine a swing voter weighing whether to vote D or R. They're given this chart of about ~50 issues. They're asked to pick the top 5 issues for why they'd choose D over R. Then pick another top 5 for why they'd choose R over D. Which issues would they choose?

Even if dems get a senate supermajority in 2028 you can't delude yourself into thinking we shouldn't get rid of the filibuster. Everything about the recent history of the last 2 dem presidents suggests not doing to would be a catastrophic mistake and lead to a failed presidency.

I owe some people an apology for thinking states like Mississippi and South Carolina were too red to ever flip on the senate level.

Ok, one thing is very clear here. Turnout was indeed better for dems than 2024 but it's clear to me that the vast majority of what we're seeing is unprecedented persuasion gains.

If we get 56 seats there's an outside chance to get a filibuster proof trifecta in 2028. But I will say ahead of time that we MUST eliminate the filibuster. A lot of these red state dems are going to be annoying conservadems. The next dem president MUST be successful.

I'd really like to troll some Republicans right now but these results are just too captivating to care about that sorry. I've never seen anything like this.

On top of all the really obvious and stupid political moves of the Trump presidency the Iran war has to be an all timer in American political history. Like literally no president except him was ever stupid enough to do it. Even the past neocon admins.

Some of these results I can't even believe... it'll take days to sift through the GOP's corpse at this rate.

This might be useful for some people over the next few days:

NYT/Siena is really putting a lot on the line here. Which is more than I can say about a lot of other pollsters right or wrong.

Disliking Haley Stevens since her 2022 primary of Andy Levin (aided by AIPAC money!) was the right choice.

I can see El-Sayed hemorrhaging Jewish support but saying he lacks black support doesn’t make any sense to me. The data really doesn’t support it.

The Virginia early vote looks to be about as blue as it was in 2025. Considering Chaz’s predictions you’d have to think: A. Eday vote will be much bluer than in 2025 or B. Persuasion in favor of democrats will be much better than in 2025

Just looking at oil prices and the general lag time between oil price increases and gas price increases, it looks like Iran is trying to turn the screws on Trump and the GOP right before the midterms.

I think Trump is going to be the last staunchly pro-Israel president. Israel’s position and image is deteriorating way too fast for pro-Israel politics to have any future here.

For the record I don’t think Blakeman is performing particularly well. Sure NY polls are close but all the NY polls that also poll the generic ballot have him performing about in line with generic R vs generic D. If his race is close I’d also expect down-ballot Dems to collapse.

It seems clear to me that Zohran has made a conscious decision to concede on several crime issues and turn his focus on other things.

One thing underrated about the difficulty of Oregon governance is the 2/3 quorum rules.

Gas prices have been falling lately. Down 10 cents from the recent peak.

I do think it’s under-appreciated how crazy difficult it for the out-party in midterm years to pick up senate seats that are +10 partisan lean in favor of the incumbent party. Even in less polarized eras it didn’t happen much. Dems have to do it twice minimum to get the senate.

In my mind I feel like attention and money needs to be redirected towards Jackson. El-Sayed looks like he’s taking care of business for the most part and I’m not worried anymore about Michigan.