Peter Crane retweeted
Replying to @samsinai
Beyond robotics, the bitter less than a biology is that computational advances are frequently made meaningless by better and higher throughput measurement technology.
Peter Crane retweeted
Announcing Ikigai Grants:
Microgrants give early-stage, bootstrapped talent capital. But that’s not enough.
I’ve watched too many grantees become perpetual microgrant chasers, wasting time applying to one $5k grant after another. Worse, most programs encourage this by funding the blanket “smart people doing cool things,” with no real conviction behind it.
I wouldn’t be here without patronage from @tylercowen & @jposhaughnessy. But looking back, the mentors & community were worth much more than the money.
So I built the program I always wished existed:
- $50k total, avg. $5k check
- Matched with mentors & community across @RenPhilanthropy , Fulcrum Science, and my personal network of founders, fund leads, investors & scientists.
Cohort 1 backs emerging talent in areas I believe are deeply underfunded and undervalued. Every application is reviewed by me.
Ikigai Grants is a program of @RenPhilanthropy, with support from Fulcrum Science. Advised by many wonderful friends & colleagues including: @AshleyNAbel @RaianyRomanni @NeuroStats Bonnie EJ Maven @idatin @ashleyz413 @JackScannell13
Apply by Nov 9th, 9a PST:
alexaraki.xyz/ikigai
It’s not rocket science.
Employment law changes, employment cost increases, entrepreneurs tax relief cut, personal tax increases, punitive tax cliffs, record energy costs, and just general feeling of malaise (nothing works or is worse). Rumours of changes to capital gains, exit taxes etc.
Britain ‘becoming incubator nation’ of firms that flee London bit.ly/4ySMiDl
I’ve always found the flippant use of the phrase “black hole” a funny one in relation to public finances.
An object formed by the collapse of a star at the end of its lifecycle. Sucking in matter (money) from surrounding areas and growing etc.
Next year - 50Bn black hole?
There's been a lot of pushback on the @IsomorphicLabs $40B valuation raise. But to offer a bull case.
China-to-West licensing is running at >$100Bn per year; there is $ out there.
Iso seem to be adding AI upstream/downstream of the AI drug discovery piece, so maybe can own more in co-dev deals, plus a better, faster internal pipeline?, etc. (esp. if there are any geopolitical issues, China costs go up, or reg innovation in West).
A $40B valuation would imply sales in the region of $6B a year with pharma earnings. (e.g. 10% AbbVie). Or a RevMed or a Jiangsu Hengrui.
Is there a route to $6B of realised biobuck payments a year - maybe? Is there a route to a RevMed-type drug (or many) - potentially, but when? Could they build a huge Hengrui-type pipeline fast - maybe?
Is this a team that can crowd AI talent, capital, compute and attention - yes.
So yes, $40B is insane for a "biotech". But if you assume their end game isn't a biotech ... but to quickly skip to being a new pharma, then there is a very narrow path to that.
Isomorphic Labs, an AI-powered drug discovery startup spun out of Alphabet’s Google DeepMind, is in early talks to raise new funds at a valuation of at least $40 billion, according to people familiar with the effort. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
This is exactly the right take from @wildtypehuman. Alas we can only dream that the Labour government will tie the removal of non competes to a broader package of pro growth labour market deregulation…
There’s two sides to a flourishing start up scene:
1. A lack of non-competes, and (controversially)
2. The ability to fire quickly!
I think @WorksInProgMag covered this at some point, but not being “locked in” to an underperforming employee means you can reallocate budget to someone new quickly.
A Labour government probably doesn’t want to do this second part, but the irony is: if you can fire easily, you can increase salaries because you can take more risk.
I think we need to agree a bargain: if you accept lower level of employment protection, some share of employment tax can be reallocated from the government to go to the employee directly.
Make it entirely optional, and say that once a company has 100 FTE they have to have at least 50% of employees on the full protection contract.
Peter Crane retweeted
Wake up babe, new flavor of doomerism just dropped.
(Can't wait for the crypto doomers to start fighting with the AI X-risk doomers about who's more right to be afraid)
Doomerism has now hit cryptography...
Unfortunately, on reflection, I think this is a very sober call. No reason to be taking unnecessary risk with all of the rapid progress happening in mathematics. The risk is not quantum, but just conventional mathematics overturning unproven cryptographic hardness assumptions.
It's UTXO-mode for a while.
So So bullish on this.
But it’s a drop in the ocean vs the contextual complexity of even a cell, let alone a tissue, organ, human, population etc.
Just the beginning I hope.
A universal predictive model of the cell would dramatically accelerate science, allowing biologists to perform experiments digitally. Today we’re announcing a major partnership with the DOE and NIH. The goal of this partnership is to generate the data that will be needed to build an accurate model of the cell with artificial intelligence.
Isomorphic, Google DeepMind, and Meta are joining us as founding partners in the Virtual Biology Initiative. This is the beginning of a large scale coordinated effort to map cellular biology to power the development of digital models of life. Other leading scientific institutions and consortia including the Allen Institute, Broad Institute, Gladstone Institutes, the Human Cell Atlas, the Human Protein Atlas, the Wellcome Sanger Institute, as well as NVIDIA, are working together as part of this international scientific project.
Creating a predictive model of the cell is one of the most important challenges for the next decade of science. The insights that come from this could unlock a far greater understanding of disease, and open new paths for cures.
We invite the worldwide scientific community and other funders to join us in this effort.
This is an incredibly powerful piece by Infinitopes CEO, Jonathan Kwok ( @ElliotHershberg backed cancer Vx). The scourge of Cancer, Brain Disease and Frailty needs to be ended. linkedin.com/pulse/do-love-j…
@DrSamuelBHume @tiffany_s_ma (couldn't find Infinitopes or JK on here!)
Muscle atrophy -> gym -> drug
Intelligence atrophy -> brain gym -> drug
They’ll be new ways of living and medicine / enhancement will be at the core of this.
Is the UK building a sovereign health LLM? We have UKBB, myFutureHealth, and NHS records; we could build a UK health AI and use that to drive NHS improvement/healthcare delivery - drive access and reduce costs if integrated into NHS App, etc. Feels like a win that plays to our healthcare system's strengths? Is anyone doing this?
Also worth pointing out:
> France has solid LLM capabilities (@MistralAI)
> Germany has just entered the race (@Aleph__Alpha)
> Italy is building @domynai
> The UK has @CosineAI which is building a sovereign LLM
It may have taken a few years but it does look like Europe is genuinely entering the AI race.
There is a very real chance that Europe could come out on top in open-source models.
Or, at the very least, have its own sovereign capabilities to use locally.
12 months ago this was unimaginable.
NICE
Peter Crane retweeted
Not only labs, but also biospecimens at scale. Bullish on that.
Day 11 of bio x ai arc
Sholto Douglas of Anthropic dropped deep cut bio ai alpha in his recent podcast appearance. He's the roommate of Dwarkesh and Leopold
No one else on X picked up on this that I saw:
- Sholto + Marwell have max conviction on AI becoming the most important tech in life sciences of our lifetime (timestamp 15:13)
- Their concern has actually shifted to whether we have enough physical and lab infrastructure
- Q: "We probably should have built a lot more compute three years ago. Should someone be creating a lot more lab space for you?" A: "I think so...this will be the limiter on biology progress"
In other words, from the internal perspective of Anthropic, as they extrapolate the exponential on their biology ambitions, they see physical lab infra as the proximate bottleneck. Fascinating.
Peter Crane retweeted
That said, when base models become better than humans for writing and refining tools, the only thing that matters outside of the frontier lab stack becomes wet lab shops for validation...
Western governments will soon realise that improving the resilience of their populations will become essential (economic productivity, health and social care costs, defence, etc.); therapeutics are one of the fastest ways to do this. Bullish.
The obsession around the strawman “100K” as a proxy for “rich” just shows how stuck in the past we are.
Yes the cliff edges today are insane BUT 100k in 2007 is 180K today; $130K in the USA is firmly lower middle tax bracket.
The bigger debate is around how we got so poor.
This is sensible.
Our tax and benefit system creates a massive cliff-edge at £100,000.
People who could be earning more (and therefore paying more tax) are incentivised to refuse work and overpay into their pensions.
bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cmn0…
Just the beginning.
A 15 fold rise in GLP 1 prescribing without an apparent FDA approved indication is concerning. With 35% of recipients at a normal BMI, it is surprising that so many clinicians are willing to prescribe without established evidence of benefit and safety in this population. @DrHLofton
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/…
This should be no surprise given Myostatin inhibitors classically failed to deliver functional benefit; and also why we are razor focussed on “function”; plus when we talk to patients it what’s they want not form. Requires one to look beyond the “sarcoplasmic hypertrophy” and into the supporting cast in the tissue.
Myostatin inhibitors and the paradox of larger but weaker muscles
peterattiamd.com/myostatin-i…
#EASD2026: New weight loss targets aim to preserve or restore muscle mass bioworld.com/articles/734440 #biopharma #obesity #weightloss #musclemass @EASDnews























