Pulkit Gera retweeted
There's a lot of confusion out there, including with Trump, that the US has lots of oil to sell to the world.
We do not. We're a net importer of crude (~+3 Mb/d). The EIA reports that fact in great detail every week.
The confusion stems from using the term "petroleum exports" which includes the bodacious amounts of natural gas liquids (NGL) that come from our wet gas plays. That stuff isn't "oil" and it is exported because it's wildly overproduced compared to our needs.
Yes, the US is a net exporter of "petroleum," but it's also a net IMPORTER of crude oil. In other words, the US has none to sell.
There's more complexity to why we export 3M b/d of crude (it's the wrong kind for our refineries) and also import 6.4 M b/d of crude (which is the right kind).
Some great life advice in this list.
I turned 40 this year. These are the things I wish I had known at 20.
Starting with...
1. Develop the ability to add and delete habits. I’ve observed that recovering addicts can have an edge on normal people--they have come to the stark realization that change is existential. Change is the price of survival for all of us. (For me, deleting is easier than adding. You might be different.)
1
3
365
This is a great explanation for what a basis trade is and why yields surged so sharply last night.
Quickest explanation of a basis trade and how it blows up.
What is the Basis Trade?
It's an arbitrage trade aiming to profit from the price difference between a bond and its futures contract.
"Basis" means "a spread".
For instance, if a futures is trading at a higher price ($99) than a cash bond ($98.50), the trade is:
• Short the Treasury futures at $99
• Buy a Treasury bond at $98.50
Hedge funds need leverage to make meaningful profit, so they borrow money to buy the bond for the trade.
To borrow money in the repo market they pledge the same Treasury bond as collateral for the loan and have to pay a repo rate.
The basis trade locks in a profit once prices converge as the futures approaches expiry.
Why does it blow up?
If Treasury bond prices fall
⬇️
Loan collateral value shrinks
⬇️
Margin call
⬇️
Need to post more collateral or close the trade
Unwinding the trade means the hedge fund needs to sell cash bonds/buy futures back, driving bond prices lower.
This kickstarts a feedback loop.
As bond prices fall further, more funds may be forced to close the trade, if they struggle to post more collateral.
To keep the trade alive, it's important to have access to repo funding, which usually dries up during market stress.
Where can you see this?
For example, you can track the spread between SOFR rate and Fed Funds rate.
• SORF rate represents a secured (collateralized) borrowing (i.e. repo).
• Fed Funds is the unsecured borrowing.
Usually, SOFR < FF rate since collateralized borrowing should be safer and more secure.
However, when the repo market financing tightens, the SORF rate can be higher than Fed Funds.
I.e. it's more expensive to borrow on a collateralized basis than not!
This is what we're seeing now, as shown in the chart below 👇
(This is "SR1J2025-ZQJ2025" on TradingView)
3
414
This thread does a great job of putting into context the peak stupid reality we are living through rn
Turns out, the so called “reciprocal” tariffs aren’t reciprocal at all. The government just vibe coded a formula out of thin air and upended 80 years of trade policy with it.
Did the White House use ChatGPT Vibe Code a retarded formula for our tariffs and then were too dumb to cover it up?
Yes. Here's the wildest trade story you missed today 🧵👇
5
726
Is anyone going to ask why Kid Rock isn’t wearing a suit?
@brianglenntv
1
7
1,038
The best way to judge a person’s character is to see what they say when they have something to lose.
This guy rails on and on against MAGA and tariffs, but the minute he got some airtime he twisted himself into a pretzel to praise Trump.
Bro is just engagement farming to build an audience. Course about to drop soon, I’m sure.
It was fun being on NewsMax yesterday to discuss where there actually may be some merits to placing tariffs.
And also where they will not work.
Interesting take!
Enjoy!
3
5
983
Wow, could this be the nail in coffin for Poilievre?
I think Trump is punishing Canada because he holds a grudge against Trudeau. If he holds one against Poilievre too, then how can the conservatives save Canada?
6
1,822