Notes to self. Managing Partner @plaintext_cap. Opinions are my own. Not investment advice
Joined December 2013
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One of my fav things about where we are in the current cycle.
The supply overhang that crushed alts has dissipated and is, for the first time in the asset class's history, manageable.
Payouts to holders minus new supply, as a share of market value:
2021-22: -17% a year
2026: -2.9%
Tokens paying holders more than they dilute them: 4% then, 17% now.
Part of this is capital discipline. Better unlock management, maturing protocols, and revenue-funded buybacks. Tokens are starting to take on equity-like properties.
The other part is demand. It's showing up. Tokenisation first, and eventually AI agentic commerce.
Less drag, more demand. Structurally, crypto has never been in better shape.
@RealVision
Optimal, long-term leverage is finally here.
Crypto trained us on short-term, massive leverage through perps. But most of the world's leverage doesn't look like that. It sits in the moderate, long-term bucket.
Disclaimer: I'm an advisor.
Public Beta now live on @base 🔥
Kelly-optimized leverage for buy-and-hold investors.
First Bitcoin, then stocks.
The only asset going in is the native asset. From there you pick your side. Take Sr= moderately stable, yield-bearing or take Jr= the levered leg.
Each carries its own optimal leverage ratio, with an interest rate set between them.
Fran retweeted
Robinhood Chain (RH) is now at 133k+ wallets holding tokenized equities (+6.5k wallets /day)
List of protocols that have caught my attention:
1/ @ponsdotfamily ~$3b of RH DEX volume in first month (11% of entire chain)
2/ @NetNetCap : reserve manager for NET, launched RWA play; earned $677k revenue in past 24 hrs
3/ @standard_rsv : the sovereign onchain reserve bank on RH; i'll link my deeper post on the mechanism (goes live soon)
4/ @prismassets : RWA marketplace with 2k+ assets including "baskets of assets" + other interesting products
5/ @MeshGateway : agentic gateway (MPP + x402 endpoints)
6/ @longdotxyz : building the RWA liquidity layer; $155m in stock volume and memetic RWA pairings
7/ @ClutchMarkets + broader Stonkbroker eco (Mancer etc) for innovative anti snipe, stock distribution mechanism - check my prior posts
8/ @GwoodFinance : self custody Neobank
9/ @TheIndexFi : stock dividend protocol; >$1.3m (probs closer to $2m now?) in rewards distributed to token holders + customizable stock baskets in the pipeline
10/ @umia_finance : auction live (oversubscribed); the missing ownership layer on EVM including RH protocols
11/ @ArrowFinanceio : Finance mgmt protocol: ETH native options launch 31 august
12/ @EARNONHOOD : permissionless omnipools "defi for RWAs"
13/ @StockMinersRH : use "Fuel" to mine ore (stocks)
14/ @longbowlend : credit layer for RH DeFi
15/ @sherwoodagent : capital layer for agentic finance
16/ @sherw00d_cash privacy primitive - "Tornado cash of RH chain"
17/ @deltaliquidity : liquidity layer for RH; surpassed >$500k TVL
Which protocols are missing + what's their core value prop? i'll append below or add to tomorrow's
RobinHood Chain is showing the fat apps, thin chain thesis... the next phase is working out which apps can turn temporary "memetic" attention into recurring volume, fees + stock token ownership
Caveat: I've not added large multi-chain protocols like Uniswap, Morpho, sushi or lighter as they're pretty obvious
Disclaimer: this is not an endorsement to buy, I'm just struggling to keep track on the developments so want to track better + share what I'm seeing
This is all still incredibly new, but I'm adamant that the next bull will be led by RWAs (likely catalyzed by agentic activity)
Fran retweeted
agree with pretty much all of these points
the challenge now is its just harder to buy SOL at $60bn when HYPE & PUMP are both cheaper, have stronger revenue/fundamentals, & are cleaner expressions together covering most of the SOL thesis but at the layer capturing more value
Think $SOL is about to make a big comeback and is the most asymmetric major over the next 6 – 18 months.
Some notes.
1. After 10 months in a row of down only, most retail and funds have capitulated, leaving only committed holders
2. One of three index assets alongside BTC and ETH that both retail and institutions will reflexively bid once it’s clear we’re back
3. Highest concentration of revenue generating apps and some of the strongest network effects of any general purpose L1
4. Solana has the most credible path to scale of any L1 w/ slot times approaching 200ms by end of Sept
5. Upcoming SIMDs will strengthen SOL economics through increased fee burns and lower inflation. Estimate Solana REV could 2x – 4x in next year easy
6. Stablecoin volumes rivaling Ethereum, Tron, Base for top payments chain
7. Tokenized equity volumes are ramping with Solana as the leader across all L1s
8. Long tail markets like memecoins, TCG, and MetaDAO “ownership” (startups) coins are all accelerating
9. Social trading apps like Fomo and Pump are onboarding a big wave of new users with Solana as the largest beneficiary
There were many reasons to be critical about Solana over the past year, but the past is becoming past.
Fundamentals look great and the value capture story will only improve with each passing quarter.
Targeting much much higher.
Despite cycle-low sentiment, value accrual for crypto assets has never been clearer, particularly for DeFi.
In the past, we had a cyclical, circular ecosystem in which meager revenues didn't accrue to token holders, while perennially overpriced assets only shed value.
Fitting day to publish this...
But If you can project out even just six months and ignore the short term malaise, it’s easy to see positive catalysts. The financial system is quite literally moving onchain through initiatives of the largest players in the world. Regulators are fostering the most accommodative crypto environment ever. Meanwhile, all of the tourists have left for AI. And most poetic, after being the most aggressive buyer at the top of the market, Saylor has become a forced seller at the bottom.
TLDR: between stablecoin growth and tokenization, onchain assets will 10x in the next few years, and as a result, earnings for DeFi protocols will skyrocket.
The depth of American dilusion around foreigner feelings for their country on X this week is astounding.
It's actually mind blowing to see this dispersion in crypto token performance. While we all lauded the BTC ETF as our savior, it has decimated the active management space since BTC has been the best performing assset by far in the last few years, and it's accessible at a low cost
Fran retweeted
One thing to put in perspective when you see everyone worried about the amount of oncoming IPO supply (which is a lot) is that there has been a lot more wealth created, so when you hear the doom porn of $600 bln in IPO supply, it’s important to put that into relative context.
The bigger thing to worry about is global FX, oil, rates and realized volatility rising into mid-terms.
Solid charts from Tony P at GS today.
Fran retweeted
The number of DeFi hacks reached ATHs in April, but their impact is still relatively low and stable.
While it’s possible the rise in count is due to AI, what’s more likely is that it’s a function of more contracts being deployed over time.
Although 2% - 4% of total value locked hacked per year is still way too high for mainstream adoption, there’s no reason to be an alarmist about it yet.
Will note too that it’s typically weaker, often times abandon/ill-maintained protocols that get hacked, so this 2% - 4% per year is in a way a weeding of the crowd.
