@joinblvd, formerly @tobacapital, before that @umich

Joined January 2021
the amount of people uncritically pasting LLM output into work emails, and thinking they have done a good and helpful thing by doing this, astounds me
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Patrick Mathieson retweeted
Anthropic "is burning cash like crazy" was one big lie, spread by the Ed Zitrons of the world. For the first 6 months of 2026, Anthropic generated positive free cash flow of $3.4 billion ($3.9 billion of cash flow from operations less $482 million of capex). And stock-based compensation was only $2.2 billion.. So even FCF less SBC was positive.
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Sold $KVYO (2% of PA), $TOST (3%) Bought $DRAM (5%)
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I was so lucky that in my mid 20s I got to know several hyper-wealthy successful people and observe just how unhappy and restless many of them are @atelicinvest is right, at a certain number you have to disavow the pursuit of more wealth or it will consume you
The hardest part is that after some - actually shockingly low amount - you actively have to push the money away.
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It’s trite talk about SF mindset (how might this go right) vs NY mindset (how will this go wrong) but you don’t have to scratch hard to figure out this tech and its economics are for real….
Overheard: “I don’t think I’ve ever seen this big a difference between prevailing investor wisdom and business reality” Most should know the clouds will be Rip City this eps season. BUT it’s still nice to see the checks clear…
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Spot the worst argument and then short it thedownround.substack.com/p/…
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Patrick Mathieson retweeted
Just found out about recency bias. Maybe the most important bias ever
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If you had told me a year ago that anthropic would go from 6B to 70B ARR in 12 months and people would be having a meltdown because it wasn’t growing slightly faster, I would have just stared at you
Who had Hyperscalers accelerating to fastest growth rates since Covid at the same time Anthropic massively decelerates on their bingo card for 3Q26? I think very few 3-6mo ago, but here we are! $MSFT $GOOG $AMZN
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Patrick Mathieson retweeted
Tried some overnight oats with protein powder, greek yogurt and berries. Not only is it healthy and packed with protein, it is disgusting.
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Patrick Mathieson retweeted
if your name is josh, you work in culver city and your boss is out for lunch rn, just fyi your boss absolutely hates your vibecoded crm and just wants to use the off the shelf software, he also wants you stop wasting company resources and do your job
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Anthropic added the entire run rate of Salesforce in like the last 4 or 4.5 months and somehow people think this performance is bad
👀 All-in-one summary of Weds Anthropic investor disclosures via @azeem / @ExponentialView open.substack.com/pub/aiinve…
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Patrick Mathieson retweeted
about 16 months into Blake’s prediction here feels about right 🎯
My modal prediction for next decade: Interest rates spike as capital shifts from savings (treasuries) to investments due to higher returns promised by AI related capex. We’ve never seen this before bc AI is the only modern project that could affect real rates to this degree. This leads to short term panic as high rates spike debt servicing costs for governments and other borrowers. After 3 years of panic, it becomes clear to the market that the investments are paying off in a big way. Interest payments remain high but increased revenue from economic growth more than offsets the higher borrowing costs. Panic shifts to euphoria. Developed world adjust to 5% growth rates as the new normal and now demand 10% to be happy. Healthcare consumption + R&D grows as a percent of GDP as incremental disposable income is spent on more wishes (aka not dying).
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Patrick Mathieson retweeted
Maybe the tariffs were stupid all along?
US-owned steel plant with a plant in Middletown OH begins mass layoffs amid Trump tariffs: In a memo sent by Cleveland-Cliffs to workers, the company explicitly linked the move to Trump's steel tariffs on Canada, which it said had "significantly shrunk the market" for its products. yahoo.com/news/us/articles/u…
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
Cleveland-Cliffs' layoffs (up to 500 workers) are at its Stelco plant in Hamilton, Ontario, Canada, due to US tariffs on Canadian steel imports. Its Middletown, Ohio plant has no such layoffs and is receiving a $1B upgrade investment. newsweek.com/us-owned-canad… manufacturingdive.com/news/cleveland…
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
Cleveland-Cliffs is laying off workers at its Stelco steel plant in Hamilton, Ontario, Canada, not in Middletown, Ohio. The company attributed the decision to U.S. tariffs on Canadian steel reducing its market. Its CEO has said he supports those tariffs. reuters.com/business/cleve… torontosun.com/news/national/… financialpost.com/news/canada-re…
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Patrick Mathieson retweeted
This app is full of ROBOTS who were MADE to MAKE YOU MAD. They are algorithmically contrarian! They do not make sense because they are not real people.
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Patrick Mathieson retweeted
the only moat left is the love of the game
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Patrick Mathieson retweeted
Having a “price target” on Bitcoin is like having P/E ratio on your dog
We remain long of Bitcoin and have upped our price target to $1.12M
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Patrick Mathieson retweeted
Lol
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it should be illegal to delay a flight and then reverse the delay with 5min to go until boarding
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Gus Johnson is completely lost up there today
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