🇦🇺 🇬🇧. Partner at @rampersand_fund. Prev @angularventures, Algo trader/founder. Dad. Husband. Knicks fan, globe wanderer, foodie, DMs open.
Sydney, London
Joined October 2009
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As a customer I don't think this is good enough. Sad.
The security incident is resolved for existing users. We value transparency, and thus will continue to provide updates until all surface areas of Railway are fully operational.
Why is Railway still not accepting new signups?
Railway’s services are fully restored for our 5 million existing users. To securely and reliably support market demand, we have paused new signups as we prioritize uptime during this recovery period. We will reopen signups this week to continue supporting the ambition of product builders worldwide.
How can I get a refund for fraudulent AI spend on other platforms?
Railway is unable to refund customers for spend performed with compromised API keys. However, we encourage you to reach out to AI token providers directly. Afterwards, please submit a support request at station.railway.com with timestamps, prompts, and addition proof of fraudulent spend so we can escalate the request on your behalf. More information to follow.
What is Railway doing to improve security moving forward?
This week, we have already or are actively implementing a new generation of builder, encryption, and logging systems. Railway has been acknowledged as critical cyber infrastructure, allowing us to utilize to previously inaccessible tooling to provide best-in-class security for our users.
Our goal has never been to simply get back to where we were. As more of the world's software gets built and run by agents alongside humans, security stops being one team's concern and becomes everyone’s ground floor. With these improvements, Railway will continue to be the best place for humans and agents to bring software to life.
We'll keep sharing updates in the link below
status.railway.com/incident/…
Andrew Poesaste retweeted
It’s probably not a coincidence that the big 3 hyperscalers are all attached to large public businesses with great cash flow.
I would expect SpaceX and Meta to make more moves in this space.
Pretty much.
As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers.
SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue.
That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.
Making an ad is the easy part now. Knowing which one to make next is the hard part. That's the new ✂️ Cuttable: ads that learn. Announcing their $20M Series A today. Proud to have backed Sam (@samkroon), Jack, and Ed Ring since day zero, and in every round since.
cuttable.com
Andrew Poesaste retweeted
on track
AI predictions for next 6-9 months
-> Anthropic/ OAI fail to ban OSS in the US
-> Anthropic/ OAI continue to innovate product but stall on fundamental tech breakthroughs
-> SOTA Gemini 4 launches at 10x lower cost
-> Elon open sources Grok
-> Anthropic/ OAI ARR growth stalls as enterprises move from tokenmaxxing to rational token consumption/ OSS
-> slow realization in public markets that AI may not replace human labor in next 1-3 years/ has not had a fundamental tech breakthrough in over a year/ lacks ROI/ AI hyper and lab spend not durable
-> moonboy VCs/ hedge funds/ softbank continue to fund Anthropic/ OAI equity raises in private markets as public markets for them are now fully closed
-> CXMT, YMTC announce capacity expansions significantly above market expectations
-> hypers deliver good q326 results on first look but fail to show meaningful AI ROI, guide to "significant capex expansion in fy27"
-> broad realization in public markets the AI dream we got sold on is not anywhere close to realization
-> 10yr hits >5%
-> hyper bonds reprice >10%, CDS hit 3x current levels, and AI credit market dries up as market realizes GPU ABF was not a good idea
-> hyper equities reprice 30-50% lower
-> ORCL falls below $30 as rumors of bailout make the round
-> market realizes memory is cyclical and LTAs won't hold
-> 50% of korean traders get wiped within a week
-> hypers cut fy27 capex
-> semis reprice >80% lower
-> fed cuts >150bps to avoid recession
Andrew Poesaste retweeted
This is one of the most important results in AI, period.
TLDR: neural networks are not tangled knots (polysemanticity is wrong). You can study their own neurons directly, without first "unfolding" them with a second model. 90% of neurons in Qwen-32B have one job.
Nick Cammarata started OpenAI’s interpretability team and is at Goodfire now. He’s been studying how LLMs work for a decade.
The stakes for understanding and aligning model behavior are the highest it’s ever been. Models have achieved superhuman results in math, can break production software systems, and changes the nature of white collar work. This work may finally allow us to intentionally design LLMs and shape how they behave.
Its a long, phenomenal read.
interpretability might be the most important scientific problem in the world right now, as I don't think we can solve alignment if we don't know what we're building. I think I have good news about it. I co-authored early work in mechanistic interpretability at OpenAI and came away pessimistic, because neural networks appeared to fold into arbitrary tangled knots. years later, I started openai's first large-scale automated interpretability project, finding about 2% of neurons legible with the primitive tools we had
with modern agentic tools and a much closer look, the picture looks totally different. the vast majority in models up to trillions of parameters are legible, and their circuits beautiful. many famous examples of tangled neurons turned out to be misunderstood. The roadblocks I expected mostly aren't there. I now think ambitious interpretability will be solved by the time we need it most, and possibly quite soon, as automated scientists keep improving. it may be a bitter lesson for interpretability: the simple thing, at absurd scale, works
already-clean.goodfire.com/
Overqualified for the benchmark. Underqualified for an invite.
Introducing The Cheeky Pint Benchmark.
We made our intern watch every episode of Cheeky Pint to bring you this breakdown of pints drank by guests to the nearest sixth.
Congratulations to @elonmusk who is currently in the lead with three full pints of Guinness.
Has anyone used Higgsfield? It’s got that casino vibe (UI), and with each spin ($5-$10), you hope your 15-30 second video doesn't need editing or else you have to top up.
People are hyper-focused on the shallow agent use cases, but Noah is pointing at something way bigger: a complete reordering of the internet’s interface and social graph.
When you move from middleman ad platforms to weighted, agent-to-agent trust primitives running at the edge, the whole web interface collapses. No search boxes, no app fatigue.
Whether Instinct actually wins the space or gets crushed by compute costs is TBD, but the underlying graph primitive they're building is a massive deal.
Instinct Founder Noah Shinn on Meta's Muse:
"I think it's a great product. It's a different take.
Instinct is meant to be simple and very easily accessible, versus a new application and a new interface.
I just spend very little of my time thinking about competition.
You walk outside, you go to the nearby cafe, and you think about how many people in that cafe are actually using AI in the way they imagined they would, or the way they want to be using it. I would say very little.
It's still an open space."
Rebooting the Silicon Valley TV show would be such a lay up (exhibit 9456):
- faux acquihires
- cuck rounds
- P of Doom and Dario
- researcher draft and agency
- Huggingface hack
- Forgetting you are an investor in a portco
🔥 Incredible session at the @Sierra_Ventures CXO Summit, thanks for hosting @shomikghosh21
Andrew Feldman (CEO/Founder, Cerebras) + Sachin Katti (VP Compute Strategy & GPT-Infra, OpenAI) + @dylan522p Patel (King of compute, SemiAnalysis)
Three of the sharpest minds in compute unpacking what it actually takes to build medium term and be a great partner in the process. Food for thought for Australia.
Brilliant, a winning team brings different strengths :)
my first week at sequoia many years ago: i go to the kitchen to grab coffee. sir @michael_jmoritz is there pulling an espresso shot. i ask him about the machine and he teaches me how to pull my own. he then leaves the kitchen.
craft is everything.
a minute later, @dougleone walks in. he sees me steaming milk on my own and goes, "kais, we didn’t hire you to make friggin cappuccinos in the middle of the day. go call companies."
hustle is everything.
both were right! sequoia is a beautiful firm full of beautiful contradictions.
Peak 2026: a $230 keypad to drive your coding agents, and a website where you pray to Tibo for your usage limits back.
659,000 begs and counting. codex-resets.com/
How is AI actually changing how we build products?
@rampersand_fund's Product Counsel are surveying ANZ's top builders to find out. Product, eng, design, founders.
What's getting better? What's getting lost? Where do you draw the line? 10 mins:
productcounsel.com.au/the-bu…
Back in SF 🌉 in a week, 21–24 Sept ✈️
Several of @rampersand_fund 's fastest-growing companies are moving to the Bay.
US seed investors: I'd love to compare notes on what's coming out of ANZ.
Aussies and Kiwis in SF: let's catch up.
DMs open.