Poginstein

Last Call, The End Of The Republic November 2026 Final Midterm Update (House, Senate, Governors) One day remains until election day and as I've stated repeatedly this cycle, it's going to be a rough one for us but it will be at the least survivable. Unfortunately, I believe the Dems are on track to break my previous ceiling in the House of 228. For the Senate I'll go through each of the competitive races along with the said state's governor's race when fit. This time I'll start off with the states of Georgia and North Carolina, these two states have unfortunately been all but locked down for the Democrats since I'd say about August and things have only gotten worse for us here. There are plenty of reasons as to why but it really just comes down to the fact, that the Dems ran their best and we ran our most average here, regardless the post-mortem on both campaigns will be interesting. (I have plenty to say myself about where things went wrong with Whatley after the election) We also should be preparing for Ossoff to launch his campaign in 2027 as it remains quite possible Bottoms secures an upset here, still I have Jackson being the favorite, though I have brought his margin of victory back down to earth a little as the EV is not as promising as I believed it would be for him. Next up is Alaska, where I have Sullivan sadly losing because of the confusion surrounding RCV in Alaska but honestly this is purely a 50/50 race. I still also see Republicans losing the governor's mansion because of the same reason. Sullivan still has a chance but because of the environment I believe he comes up short VERY narrowly, which may result in this race being undecided into December as legal challenges play out. Now for Kansas, Nebraska and Montana, all three of these states will remain firmly Republican. I still wholly believe that the recent "momentum" Democrats and their fake independent candidates have been "seeing" will not materialize as usual and Republicans statewide will win comfortably with things being closer than usual due to mediocre turnout in the rural areas in these states. As for Texas and Ohio, things have gotten closer due to the worsening of the general environment and because of campaign fuck ups, particularly in Ohio, Vivek's ad and the subsequent self-sabotaging response by the Ohio GOP. (a reoccurring issue this year if you haven't noticed) The entire ordeal has more than likely hurt everyone on the Republican side. Not enough for the Dems to claim the governorship nor the Senate seat in my opinion but enough for both races to go down to the wire on election night. In Texas, though Paxton thankfully hasn't had any more major problems, Talarico is unfortunately going to give him a run for his money with near Presidential level turnout in urban areas, making the race closer than 2018 but certainly not enough to get him over the line. As for Abbott, the environment like for many others I've discussed, along with him running for a 4th term will knock him down a bit but he will win comfortably around Trump's 2020 margin. In Maine, Collins has done a great job at keeping her lead over Jackson and I believe she will hold on for one more term with the narrowest victory of her career. As for New Hampshire, Sununu gave it his best effort but unfortunately Pappas got his act together in time and the lack of any damaging scandal is going to prevent him from dropping under 5 in the end. Sununu will have at least outran the national environment by a few points and made the Dems spend more in a state that usually would not have been competitive in a year like this. Finally for Michigan, Minnesota and Iowa, I still believe Hinson is going to win despite her own slip ups on the trail in recent months, but I am still not buying the hype for Minnesota. It is possible Flanagan underperforms Harris's margin narrowly, but I simply believe the environment is too blue and Dem turnout too high for Flanagan to win by anything less than 5. You also have to consider that Klobuchar is running which will only make the situation worse statewide, I hope to be wrong here, but I just don't see it happening. As for the Michigan section, I've just had to rewrite this after Stevens's surprise endorsement of Rogers yesterday. Before the endorsement I had El-Sayed winning by just 0.45% but I think this last minute endorsement is just what Rogers may have needed to finally win narrowly. However, I am still deeply conflicted with this race as I can easily see a scenario where Sayed still wins either narrowly or by upwards of 3 but on the flipside, I can also see a situation in which Rogers pulls it out by 2. This race like Alaska is 50/50 in the truest since, all the more reason for Republicans in both of these states to VOTE, we still have a chance here! Now there are four governors races I want to address before we get to the margins, these being Iowa, Wisconsin, Nevada and Arizona. Starting off with Iowa, I'm still standing by my belief that Lahn could pull off an upset against Sand in Iowa, admittedly this has become increasingly unlikely as time has gone on but considering polls (unreliable as they are, especially in Iowa) have shown him either running in line with or only being behind by 1-2 points, he's still in this thing especially if Hinson wins by more than expected. In Wisconsin, Tiffany has run a very good campaign all things considered, the problems that I think sink him in the end are twofold, it is again the poor environment, plus Evers's current popularity statewide. Crowley will win not because of his own efforts but because other factors boosted him up and pulled Tiffany down similar to his victory over Hong in the primary. I'm combining Nevada and Arizona here, I've had Lombardo winning consistently by 4% throughout this cycle but the EV in Nevada leading up to election day has led me to become more concerned about his chances. I still think he wins but just much more narrowly than I've thought, the environment and Nevada's already poor economy is very likely beginning to drag on him despite his personal popularity. Andy Biggs meanwhile in Arizona has been silently running the best campaign a Republican has in the state in a while. That along with TPUSA helping get out the vote for him will help make this race much closer than people are expecting. Unfortunately, he is still running in an unfavorable environment against a relatively inoffensive incumbent. (in the eyes of indies at least) Which makes it very hard to see him winning but If I were to be wrong about any particular races this year, I'd be the least shocked if this race ended up being one of them as I originally had him up months ago but then stepped back after Hobbs began her basement strategy again. Now for my FINAL margins in each key Senate and Governor races. (remember the arrow indicates a change in the margin or race, no arrow means no change) 🟦House: 🟦Democrats: 231 (+3) 🟥Republicans: 204 (-3) 🟥Senate: 🟥Republicans: 52 (-) 🟦Democrats: 48 (-) 🟦GA: Ossoff+6.2% → 8.6% 🟦NC: Cooper+4.8% → 7.4% 🟥TX: Paxton+3.1% → 1.6% 🟦→🟥MI: Rogers+0.28% 🟦NH: Pappas+3.9% → 5.6% 🟥→🟦AK: Peltola+0.15% 🟥OH: Husted+3.2% → 1.9% 🟥IA: Hinson+3.9% 🟥ME: Collins+1.7% → 1.2% 🟦MN: Flanagan+7.4% → 6.6% 🟥SC: Graham+8.8% → 7.4% 🟥NE: Ricketts+7.8% → 6.3% 🟥KS: Marshall+8.3% → 5.4% 🟥FL: Moody+12.4% 🟥Governors: 🟥Republicans: 26 (-1) 🟦Democrats: 24 (+1) 🟥TX: Abbott+8.2% → 6.6% 🟥GA: Jackson+4.8% → 1.2% 🟥OH: Vivek+5.5% → 0.89% 🟥NV: Lombardo+4.3% → 1.8% 🟥IA: Lahn+0.62% 🟦AZ: Hobbs+3.6% → 2.7% 🟦MI: Benson+6.7% → 7.4% 🟥→🟦WI: Crowley+2.3% 🟦PA: Shapiro+21.2% 🟥FL: Donalds+11.3% → 10.2% 🟦AK: Tomkins+2.9% → 5.4% 🟦OR: Kotek+3.5% → 4.7% My closing message this time is that I hope to be wrong come tomorrow and that instead of reeling from various losses we are instead celebrating many surprise victories. However, that can only happen only if we all show up, get whatever family or friends you have to the polls tomorrow, drag them there if necessary. (Last note, I'm telling you a 50-50 Senate is not a victory, we REALLY do not want the Senate to be controlled by the whims of Murkowski who may be on the verge of flipping parties or in the hands of John Lieberman, do not let this happen!)