marc. every market is wrong, some are wrong enough to pay for it. @Polymarket. lyon 🇫🇷 NFA
lyon
Joined July 2026
- Tweets157
- Following43
- Followers15
- Likes0
🚨 OFFICIALS SAY THE HOUTHIS RAIDED SAUDI ARABIA. POLYMARKET SAYS IT DOESN'T COUNT
>"Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by Oct 31" hit 76%
>Polymarket: outlets repeating one report isn't proof
>YES proposed, disputed. NO proposed, disputed
>Now 0.1%
$342K on what "credible" means 👀
23
$1M is riding on polymarket on the day kai cenat beats every gta
he flew through the first three. now he's grinding gta 4, gta 5 is next
"done by tuesday night": 47.5% when he went live, 11.5% now
"by wednesday night": 82.5%
one more side mission and someone's cooked 😭
86
🚨 NVIDIA'S CEO ADMITTED AN AFFAIR. US INTEL REPORTEDLY THINKS SHE'S A CHINESE SPY
>$200B+ of Nvidia gone before the bell
>Board opened a probe
>Trump: "an honorable guy"
Polymarket: 14% he's out as CEO by new year. Divorce: 9.5%
his job's in more danger than his marriage 👀
21
gop leaders reportedly expect hegseth to be impeached this week. polymarket thinks he probably keeps his job 👀
impeached by new year: 74%. a week ago: 21%
out by new year: 44.5%
the last secretary of war to get impeached? 1876. he quit the same day, right before the vote
pete hegseth fired a three-star navy admiral last year
last night she flipped nancy mace's seat in south carolina
next week a republican says he'll force a vote to impeach hegseth. gop sources tell cnn it passes
polymarket: 45% he's out by new year 👀
rough week for pete 😭
15
polymarket was 94% sure bitcoin wouldn't touch $74k this week
the week ends tonight. in the last hour btc dumped right through it
everyone who bought NO for "easy money by sunday" just got zeroed 😭
next up: $70k before new year, now 66.5% 👀
126
🚨 $6M ON POLYMARKET IS DECIDED BY A TOKEN POOL WITH $80K IN IT
>The bet: what a vape-to-earn coin is worth a day after launch
>Its main pool says ~$395M
>Sleuths: 1,000+ wallets in it never bet on anything else
>Disputed 10 times
Now voters decide what "valuation" means 👀
16
two days after israel voted, polymarket gave gadi eisenkot 26% to be the next pm
now israel's president picked him over netanyahu to form the government
polymarket: 68%
why not higher? some of the lawmakers who backed him are arab-led parties he says he won't govern with 👀
netanyahu's camp won the most seats in israel last week
today 67 lawmakers backed eisenkot for pm. bibi got 46
polymarket now gives netanyahu 23%. a week ago he was at 45% 👀
polymarket.com/event/who-wil…
everyone posts the guy who got rich on polymarket's 5-minute bitcoin markets
nobody posts this guy:
19,040 markets traded since january
total pnl: -$28.3k
biggest win ever: $2,934
and he just opened another one 😭
20
🚨 POLYMARKET HAS OFFICIALLY RULED THE US-IRAN CEASEFIRE OVER
>Trump on the Qeshm strikes: "we do minor strikes"
>Also Trump: "Iran is not a war"
>"No US strike through Sunday" settled NO. $1.3M market
>Nov 15, Nov 30, Dec 31: all NO
turns out "minor" still counts 👀
🚨 THE US REPORTEDLY JUST HIT IRAN. POLYMARKET: 52% THE CEASEFIRE HELD
>Iran media: 2 projectiles hit Qeshm
>Reports: a US jet fired back after an Iranian missile
>"No US strike through Sunday": 82.5% → 52.5%
>Rules: strike "initiated by the US"
Does firing back count? 👀
56
polymarket just decided the US hit iran tonight. the US hasn't confirmed it
"no US strike through sunday": 79% yesterday, 5% now
iran media: 2 missiles hit qeshm
washington: silence
someone knows something, or everyone just panic-sold 👀
🚨 THE US REPORTEDLY JUST HIT IRAN. POLYMARKET: 52% THE CEASEFIRE HELD
>Iran media: 2 projectiles hit Qeshm
>Reports: a US jet fired back after an Iranian missile
>"No US strike through Sunday": 82.5% → 52.5%
>Rules: strike "initiated by the US"
Does firing back count? 👀
1
84
trump met putin's envoy at the white house and says a "big, beautiful agreement" on ukraine could be close. maybe one for all of europe
polymarket, ceasefire deal by new year: 15.5%
that's right where it was a month ago 👀 traders have heard "it's close" before
31
🚨 WSJ: THE US WAS SECRETLY STRIKING IRAN FOR WEEKS. POLYMARKET: THE CEASEFIRE HELD
>$11.9M bet on it holding through Oct 31
>Polymarket: no proof of a US strike by then
>Disputed 4 times, still in review
today the US and Iran are reportedly close to a deal to end the war 😭
57
apple and nvidia swapped the world's top spot three times in a week
then wall st had its worst day since april 2025. nvidia -9%
polymarket, #1 by new year:
nvidia 64.5% two days ago, 27% now
apple 72% 🍎
polymarket.com/event/largest…
30
🚨 POLYMARKET CAN'T DECIDE IF TRUMP EVER INSULTED KEN PAXTON
>A week before the election he told him "not sure your body is gonna qualify"
>Proposed NO. Disputed
>Proposed YES. Disputed
Earlier this week: 1.4%. Now 37%, headed to a final vote 👀
2
34
jd vance just told 68M people on X why republicans lost: "the reason we lost is the war"
trump's reply: "maybe he won't run"
polymarket: vance was 28% to be the 2028 nominee on election night. now 38.5%, higher than before the vote 👀
2
60
his line everyone's quoting: "If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so."
trump called it "largely true", but said he'd do it again
polymarket.com/event/republi…
8
he said it at a lubbock rally, right after a joke about jon husted. polymarket says any clarification comes today
market: polymarket.com/event/who-wil…
23
netanyahu's camp won the most seats in israel last week
today 67 lawmakers backed eisenkot for pm. bibi got 46
polymarket now gives netanyahu 23%. a week ago he was at 45% 👀
polymarket.com/event/who-wil…