polymarket_metadata

Kalshi weather markets look like pure noise until you realize the trades are telling a story take every trade - bucket them into 15-minute windows - weight each price by the volume behind it - chart the probability through time and suddenly the chaos starts organizing itself disagreement new information repricing convergence resolution what looked random becomes a timeline of how the market learned the answer here’s the full transformation:

if you’ve ever tried doing serious research with the Polymarket API you’ve probably hit the ID maze the ID you need is almost never the ID you start with. here is the quick rundown: - market ID → metadata - CLOB token ID → prices + order books - condition ID → settlement - slug → discovery pick the wrong one your query returns an empty {} I got tired of hunting through endpoints and built a free tool that finds all of them from one search

this is the biggest trap in prediction market accuracy studies measure too late and you’re not really measuring forecasting anymore you’re measuring how fast the market absorbed information that was already arriving I analyzed 3,195 resolved Kalshi political markets across 25,552 snapshots at open: 34.2-point error near close: 1.8

I wanted to know one thing: when Kalshi and Polymarket disagree I want to know immediately so I built exactly that same event real money two different crowds coming to two different probabilities now you can watch that disagreement unfold live > prices side by side > charts side by side > trades side by side > live odds as they move find the divergence then send the markets straight into your own Lychee dashboard add charts candles order books multiple markets rearrange everything and keep watching what happens next just shipped: Kalshi vs Polymarket

The “average” Polymarket market does not exist Everyone is arguing about Kalshi faking volume right now look at this: - 1.38% of Polymarket markets generated 70.15% of ALL historical volume at the opposite end: - 63.78% of markets did less than $10K in volume or none at all together they generated just 0.91% read those numbers again 1.38% → 70.15% 63.78% → 0.91% a tiny handful of markets dominate the entire ecosystem while most markets barely trade so if your research is built around what the “average market” looks like you may be analyzing something that basically doesn’t exist

Kalshi and Polymarket are betting on the same reality and sometimes they completely disagree that gap might be where the information is Kalshi says 8% Polymarket says 9.7% - same event - same outcome - real money on both sides yet Polymarket is pricing it 21% higher that disagreement is the interesting part who knows something? who moves first? who eventually follows? I wanted to watch this happen live so I built it Kalshi + Polymarket side by side > live prices > charts > trades > market search > send any comparison straight into a full dashboard just shipped in Lychee here’s how it works:

SEO has been paying major dividends for lychee

been diving deep into Kalshi data recently the growth is honestly kind of insane lycheedata.com/misterrpink/d…

with 1% battery left 3hrs of deep work in we got it out fam Lychee now has dashboard creation here’s a Kalshi historical volume dashboard showing some interesting trends and insights also Kalshi volume surpassed Polymarket 🤯 thank you to all of you for cheering me on

GM mofos let's get after it today

I’m calling it now @Polymarket FIFA World Cup markets are going to print we already know a large chunk of teams have ~0% real chance which means: mispriced probabilities lazy money free edges diving deep into strategies with my analysis tool let’s see which markets are completely off Remember you don’t have to hold a position until resolution