Polyvaults

Polyvaults is evolving from strategy vaults to thesis indexes. Thousands of markets exist on @Polymarket. The challenge is turning views into structured positions. Welcome to Thesis Maxxing. Customize, discover, and fork prediction market indexes built around your ideas. teapawt.net/polyvaults_ai/status/2…

BTC is at $76.2K. Prediction markets put the chance of $70K before year-end at 55%. $82.4M traded. Too bearish, or is $70K next?

The midterms are over. Prediction markets have already moved on to the next question: who leaves the administration before 2027? Pete Hegseth: 53% Susie Wiles: 49% Kristi Noem: 27% $1.5M traded. Who’s mispriced?

the 2026 midterms are barely over and the market is already trading 2028. Democrats: 68% Republicans: 32% $2.6M traded. the market never closes. it just changes the question. does one midterm sweep justify a 2:1 lead four years out?

the 2026 midterms are here, and the market’s base case is no longer divided government. Democrats sweep: 77% R Senate + D House: 19% Republicans sweep: 6% $61M has traded on the next balance of power. which outcome is the market mispricing? 🤔

Kansas hasn’t elected a Democratic senator since 1932. at the start of October, Adam Hamilton was below 25% on Polymarket. now: 62%, up 10 points today, with $2.2M traded. 94 years of history is suddenly the underdog. does the streak break tomorrow? 👀

potentially the largest hack in crypto history: a reported $5.6B moved out of Binance yesterday. Binance says it will cover all losses, with around $3B frozen so far. the market for total crypto hack losses in 2026 now has $3B+ at 100%. where does the final number land?

House progressives are already debating who pays if the AI boom breaks, with a nonbinding resolution opposing taxpayer bailouts. Polymarket: 2026 — 8% By June 30, 2027 — 23% Same bubble, different clock. What does the market think happens in those six months?

Six days to the midterms, and Trump says he’ll respect the results only if they’re “honest.” Meanwhile, Polymarket has Democrats at: House — 92% Senate — 67% One election. Two markets. A 25-point confidence gap. Which leg is mispriced?

94% on no rate change at this week's fed meeting on @Polymarket. pretty much everyone is on the same side of this one. is the market right, or is there still room for a surprise? 👀

Gold briefly broke below $4,000 for the first time since July. January high: above $5,400. Polymarket now gives it a 36% chance of touching $3,900 before October ends. one more leg down?

BTC tagged $84K yesterday. Now it's back below $83K. CT is calling the bull market, but Polymarket isn't so sure.

spacex beat q3 with $14.58B in revenue. then musk said tesla and spacex have formed special committees on a merger, and that calling it certain "would be overstating it." the market agrees: announced by dec 31: 22% by end of 2027: 68%

prediction markets will price literally anything. People’s Sexiest Man Alive: Matt Damon: 45% Michael B. Jordan: 45% Oscar Isaac: 45% Timothée Chalamet: 45% Drake: 44% the market has spoken: it has absolutely no idea.

Riots across France. Stores looted, and in Limoges the bell tower of a 143-year-old town hall collapsed. Prediction markets, for now: State of emergency by Oct 31: 9.5% Macron out by Dec 31: 3.7%

google says willow cut errors 40x on a key quantum step. crypto heard one thing: q-day. polymarket puts bitcoin replacing sha-256 before 2027 at 1.7%. too early to worry, or too late to ignore? 👀

the first move is rarely the last. hot CPI sent the odds of an October Fed hike from 17.5% to 48.5% in 30 minutes. 14 hours later: 21.5%. prediction markets don’t just price the news. they price the second thoughts too. what moves this market next? 👀

gemini 4 argon dropped yesterday. the timeline: “google is so back.” the market: google 70%. anthropic 27%. everyone else 1% or less. does google hold the lead through october, or is 70% too high? 👀

bitcoin slipped under $82k last night and took $120M in longs with it. we told Custom Builder: "i think 80k holds this week" it pulled up the weekly dip ladder. polymarket has 80k getting tagged by sunday at 44.5%.

nov 2025: polymarket had democrats at 18.5% to win the texas senate race. today: 62.5%. last democrat to win one: lloyd bentsen, 1988.