🦔Moody’s says AI borrowing has become a major source of growth for private credit, and it sees a problem coming. A wave of these loans comes due between 2027 and 2029, and weaker borrowers will have to refinance at higher rates. About 17% of the 607 companies Moody’s tracks already pay part of their interest with more debt instead of cash. My Take With payment-in-kind, a company that can’t spare cash for its interest bill gets the lender to add the interest to the loan instead. That buys time. The debt grows every quarter while everyone waits for business to improve before the loan comes due. With about one in six borrowers already on it before the big maturity wave even starts, I don’t love the odds for 2028. Moody’s also used the word “circular,” and rating agencies usually show up late to that kind of call. Nvidia alone has put up to $164.5 billion behind its own customers’ data centers, so when one piece of this chain breaks, the lenders and the chip suppliers take the hit together. Expect private credit funds to push maturities out and keep these loans marked near full value as long as they can. If you own one of the private credit funds that cap withdrawals, the value on your statement depends on those marks. Hedgie🤗

Frontier LLMs have no moat, but at the same time they can't stop spending because losing their lead means the money stops. Basically they're building stairs to nowhere hoping nobody notices, while the free models are 5 feet behind climbing what has been built Spot on @pkedrosky

The massive magnitude of today’s selloff in Brazilian assets is less about Brazil’s underlying outlook and more about just how confident—and wrong—the consensus view on finance was with respect to a Bolsonaro win. #brazil #lula #bolsonaro

Breaking: Michael Burry says S&P looks "uncannily close" to the 2000 dot-com crash He splits the index into "leaders, broken, and busted" - 23% of all 500 stocks in the index are down 40% or more from the highs - Before the 2000 crash, about 32% of the 500 stocks were down 40%+ - Only 15 individual stocks hit a new high on Oct 6, out of 500 total - Right before the 2000 crash, it was also just 15 stocks hitting new highs Burry said he'll "continue to hold and to seek investments outside the S&P 500"

He’s saying the quiet parts out loud this weekend ⬇️

"Ce n'est pas normal qu'à six mois d'une élection présidentielle, notre pays soit dans cet état d'ébullition", affirme Emmanuel Macron

Despite the significant investments ploughed into artificial intelligence it has provided “zero payoff” to corporate America outside of technology, according to Apollo's Chief Economist Torsten Slok. Read more: bloom.bg/3UeNZMq 📷: Victor J. Blue/Bloomberg

APOLLO: AI HAS DELIVERED “ZERO PAYOFF” OUTSIDE BIG TECH Apollo Chief Economist Torsten Slok warns that massive AI spending has yet to deliver measurable productivity gains across corporate America. Revenue per worker and profit margins are rising for the Magnificent Seven but remain flat for the S&P 493. Meanwhile, Gartner estimates $3.5 trillion in AI infrastructure spending could face impairment risk by 2030. The key takeaway: AI investment is booming, but returns outside Big Tech remain elusive.

Macron a annoncé qu’un conseil de défense va se réunir ce vendredi afin de prendre « des décisions supplémentaires ». 🔴 Suivez en direct les suites du 17 octobre ➡️ l.humanite.fr/dTe

Entre l'incompréhension crasse de ce qu'est vraiment la légitimité et le déni forcené de l'effondrement de la sienne : croire encore pouvoir donner des leçons.

Entre l'incompréhension crasse de ce qu'est vraiment la légitimité et le déni forcené de l'effondrement de la sienne : croire encore pouvoir donner des leçons.