The midterms are the biggest prediction market event of the year. So we built a home for it. 📊 Senate, House and governor markets 🧠 Analysis from our political traders 📈 Kalshi and Polymarket, side by side 👉 predictionpro.com/midterms

Six races. Eight ways it could go. One of them hands Dems the Senate. One keeps it red. The rest are closer than you think. Every scenario, mapped 👇

The market sold Dem Senate control this week. The sharps bought it. +$63K toward Dems from Polymarket's top 30 politics wallets, while the price slid from 68.5% to 64.5%. They also faded Maine and stopped backing Rogers in Michigan.

🗳️ The early vote looks more like our model than the market Kansas: R+20 registration → D+9 early ballots • Our model: Hamilton 46% • Polymarket: 37.5% Florida: R+11 registration → dead even early • Our model: 27% • Polymarket: 8.5% Iowa + Maine: early ballots D+19 and D+29

📊 Young voters are back at 2018 levels. So is the market. • 2018: youth D+35 → Dems won the House vote by 8.6 • 2026: Harvard has youth at D+37 • Polymarket: 69% chance Dems win the House vote by 8+ Our model is more cautious at D+6.5 👀

Donalds +5 and Moody +7 in the same poll. Florida is looking a lot different from states like Texas and Ohio, where Democrats are polling ahead despite the Republican lean. Kalshi still has Donalds at 83%, so traders aren't buying into much of a Florida upset either. Makes you wonder how much of the national Democratic wave is actually reaching Florida.

Eight straight polls without Paxton leading is pretty hard to dismiss at this point. Trump won Texas by almost 14 points and now Talarico is averaging +2. Kalshi still has him at 65%, so traders aren't treating that polling lead as a sure thing. But you have to wonder how much of the remaining 35% for Paxton is just Texas's Republican history

64% of New Jersey's early voters are registered Democrats compared to just 20% Republicans. That's a huge gap, but NJ is also a state where Democrats have historically dominated mail voting. The real question is whether this is an unusually strong Democratic turnout year or just the same voters casting their ballots earlier. Would love to see this against 2022.

🦞 Maine Senate: the market blinked, our model didn't • Our model: Jackson 67.1% to beat Collins • Polymarket: 60%, down from 66.5% Thursday • Last 3 public polls: Jackson +4, Jackson +4, tied A 7-point gap with no new poll behind the drop 👀

🇧🇷 Brazil's runoff market just FLIPPED • Lula: 18.5% at noon → 69% now on Polymarket • Flávio Bolsonaro: 82% → 32% • Official count at 14%: a literal dead heat, 50.02% to 49.98% The count says coin flip. The market says Lula 👀

Silver's model is around 75%, Polymarket is at 68%, and our PredictionPro model is at 66.1%. What's funny is how much agreement there actually is on the overall Senate outlook while everyone disagrees on individual states. Feels like the real opportunity for prediction market traders is figuring out which specific races are being mispriced, not just betting on Senate control.

Iowa might be one of the bigger disagreements between the polls and prediction markets right now. Silver moved the race to Lean D, but Polymarket still has Hinson at 58%. Our PredictionPro model has Democrats at 66.1% for Senate control overall, and Iowa feels like one of those races that could completely change that math if it breaks the other way.

🎰 Nevada governor: the market keeps moving to Aaron Ford • Ford 68.5% on Polymarket, up from 40.5% on Sept. 1 • +7.5 pts in a single day on Oct. 21 • Last public polls? A coin flip — Lombardo +2 (Noble), Ford +2 (Emerson) Traders are pricing a Ford edge the polls haven't shown yet 👀

Young men were supposed to be one of the GOP's big long-term gains from 2024 and now Polymarket is pricing an 85% chance they swing back to Democrats. The Harvard Youth Poll also has just 34% of young Republicans saying they'll definitely vote. Makes you wonder how much of Trump's appeal to young men was actually transferable to the Republican Party without him on the ballot.

Ford going from basically a coin flip to 69% on Polymarket is a pretty big repricing. Meanwhile Lombardo is still leading in some polling averages. Nevada's early vote is running about 8 points bluer than 2024, so it seems like traders are putting more weight on turnout than the polls. Curious whether that's justified or if the market is getting ahead of itself.

Another tie in Texas and Kalshi still has Talarico at 65%. The bigger thing here might be Paxton only getting 79% of Republicans while Talarico gets 90% of Democrats. That's a pretty big enthusiasm/party unity gap, and probably explains why traders are still pricing Talarico as a solid favorite despite the race polling within a point or two.

📉 The Senate market is coming back toward our model • Our model: Dems 62.5% to control the Senate • Polymarket: 65.5%, down from 68.5% Wednesday • Gap: 3 points, and shrinking Dems still favored, just not by as much as the market thought midweek 👀

52 Democratic seats based on current polling averages is pretty wild considering Republicans entered the cycle with 53. But there's a big difference between leading in 52 races and actually winning 52. Our PredictionPro model has Dem Senate control at 66.1%, so there's still a lot of uncertainty here. Especially with several of these races sitting within a couple points.

The small-dollar donor maps in Texas and Kansas are pretty striking. PACs can dump millions into a race, but local donations tell you who's actually motivated enough to put their own money behind a candidate. Wonder if prediction markets are putting enough weight on that, especially in states where Democrats are running way ahead of their usual baseline.

Five Metro Atlanta counties are casting 40% of Georgia’s early vote. Fulton, DeKalb, Cobb, Gwinnett, Clayton: 40.9% of their 2022 vote banked. Statewide, 37.1%. They produce more than the entire Democratic margin. The other 154 counties are net red.

This might explain why Florida's early vote looks so different from Georgia and North Carolina. The raw Democratic shift is there, but the voters coming off the sidelines aren't nearly as Democratic. So you can have a much bluer electorate than 2024 without necessarily getting the same kind of shift in actual votes. That distinction matters a lot when trying to price these races.