PeeWee | ⚡️

🇺🇸 Wall Street will trade Tuesday’s CPI inflation report half-blind, with no yearly number and 84% odds of a Fed HIKE. BLS says it "will not publish 12-month percent changes" for October, because the government never collected October 2025 prices during the 43-day shutdown. Traders will have to rely on unofficial estimates, ranging from 3.6% to 4.0%. The last official reading was 3.7% in September, up from 2.4% in February, before the Iran war sent oil soaring. It peaked at 4.2% in May, the highest since April 2023. What Americans paid more for over the past year: 1. Fuel oil: +74.2% 2. Gasoline: +34.2% 3. Airfares: +22.4% 4. Natural gas: +5.0% 5. Electricity: +4.4% 6. Rent and housing: +3.2% Meanwhile, paychecks are falling behind, with real hourly earnings down 0.7% over the past year, per BLS. The Fed already hiked in September for the first time since July 2023. In October, two officials voted for another hike right away. Economists expect prices rose about 0.3% in October, half of September’s 0.6% jump. But with rates at 3.75% to 4.00%, even a small surprise could lock in a December hike. All eyes are now on Tuesday’s 8:30 AM ET release, the last CPI report before the Fed’s Dec 9 decision.