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💥 SABOTAGE SEPTEMBER With the term "hybrid warfare" being in everyone's mouth, it is worth looking at what 🇷🇺 Russia has been busy with doing between war and peace during the past month. 🇵🇱 A fire broke out at a facility of the Polish company WB Electronics in Skarżysko-Kamienna. The company produces - among other things - reconnaissance and loitering munition UAVs that are being deployed by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. PM Tusk speaks of “deliberate arson” and accuses Russia. The Department of Organized Crime and Corruption of the National Prosecutor’s Office opened an investigation into “participation in foreign intelligence activities against the Republic of Poland and committing a terrorist offense.” (Sep 1) 🇩🇪 The German government formally attributes the failed August 4 drone attack on a Ukrainian Antonov An-124 cargo aircraft at the Halle/Leipzig airport to Russia intelligence services. (Sep 1) 🇩🇪 German authorities are investigating an arson attack against the defence technology company Rohde & Schwarz in Munich. Two Bulgarian nationals were arrested after an incendiary device caused a small fire while a second device was defused. According to a German newspaper, the suspects are part of a group linked to the Russian military intelligence agency GRU. (Sep 3) 🇭🇺 Hungary expels 10 Russian diplomats. Although a reason for this decision was not explicitly stated, European Commission spokesperson Christian Wigand characterised it as a reasonable response to “Russia’s persistent campaign in using hybrid attacks against the EU and its member states.” (Sep 8) 🇲🇩 Moldovan law enforcement arrests an unnamed 49-year old Azerbaijani citizen in Chișinău. The man is suspected of having collected information on Moldovan military facilities and US facilities. The suspect has been in contact with an alleged handler of the Russian Federal Security Services (FSB). (Sep 8) 🇷🇴 Romanian intelligence announces the arrest of a 40-year old Russian citizen for preparing acts of sabotage in Romania. Between February, when the suspect had first come under intelligence surveillance, and July of 2026, the man had taken and forwarded pictures of Russian strategic military interest to his handler, including photographs “of the Romanian/allied armed forces' equipment and the movement of personnel and combat equipment at several Romanian and multinational military objectives (bases), located in the counties of Cluj, Constanța, Călărași, Ilfov and the municipality of Bucharest, acts which, by their nature, endangered national security.” (Sep 8) 🇵🇱 Polish PM Tusk announced that a “direct threat” at a Polish-Ukrainian border crossing had been foiled. No further details were provided. (Sep 9) 🇳🇴 Back in April, a joint operation of the UK, Norway, and the US prevented a Russian GUGI (Main Directorate of Deep-Sea Research) submarine exercise near Svalbard that simulated the destruction of critical undersea cables. No cables were damaged. (Sep 9) 🇬🇧 A 31-year old British national has been charged with providing information on drone manufacturers and for offering services including sabotage to Russian intelligence. He had been in contact with the GRU Volunteer Corps, controlled by the Russian foreign military intelligence agency (GRU). He is set to go on trial next year. (Sep 9) 🇩🇪🇫🇷 Ahead of German state and French presidential elections, the Swedish Psychological Defence Agency has warned that Russian bots were spreading manipulated information. Their goal is to polarise the electorate. (Sep 10) 🇺🇦 Anthropic reports that it has uncovered a cyber espionage campaign by APT Midnight Blizzard that have used Claude in its operations. The cyber-espionage group has been linked to the SVR - Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service. According to the report, Midnight Blizzard was targeting senior Ukrainian government, military, and diplomatic officials and drone manufacturers. In one instance, the group had been able to steal “a complete proprietary software development kit fit for a drone vision system.” (Sep 11) 🇩🇪 Police discovered the wreckage of a UAV roughly one kilometre from the Wunstorf Air Base, home to Germany’s entire A400M fleet. It is believed that the drone has been located there for up to two years and that it could have been equipped with explosives. According to NDR, the drone found in Wunstorf resembled the UAV found in Halle/ Leipzig earlier this summer. Specifically, the drone components were produced using a 3D printer. (Sep 14) 🇩🇪 Federal prosecutors charged a Ukrainian-born businesswoman living in Berlin with espionage. She is said to have acted on behalf of Russian intelligence and transmitted information through a contact at the Russian Embassy in Berlin. Using her business contacts, she set up meetings between a Russian intelligence officer of the Russian embassy, including by using a fake name of said official, with political and military representatives. (Sep 14) 🇺🇸🇱🇹 The United States Justice Department unsealed charges against five individuals connected to Russian intelligence services for “conduct[ing] pre-operational surveillance and carry[ing] out targeted killings” both inside the United States and Lithuania. The two unnamed victims of these assassination plots are Russian dissidents with one of them being a ‘“bad guy” who was “telling lies about Russia.”’ The Spanish newspaper El Mundo later reported the two intended victims were Garry Kasparov and Ilya Ponomarev. (Sep 15) 🇬🇧 An investigation by The i Paper and the Institute for Strategic Dialogue (ISD) reports that Russian-linked actors are targeting British teenagers through online “Com [community] networks,” offering money and allegedly providing access to weapons and training. At least two cases of vandalism in the UK have been linked to these recruitment patterns. (Sep 15) 🇫🇮 Two Swedish men, aged 37 and 40, have been jailed in Finland on suspicion of espionage. No details about their suspected espionage activities have been disclosed. (Sep 16) 🇬🇧 A 21-year old Ukrainian man pleads guilty to five racially and religiously aggravated criminal-damage offences for spraying abusive graffiti on mosques and Islamic institutions in East London in January 2025. He told the police that he had been recruited by a Russian-speaking person via Telegram who directed the targets and paid him. The case is considered to be connected to a wider Russian-linked network accused of arson in the UK, including an arson attack against the property and car connected to former PM Keir Starmer. (Sep 17) 🇨🇿 Czech journalists from Seznam Zprávy found that employees of the Russian Z-channel “Rybar”, a major Russian pro-war Telegram channel, have been operating in several European countries. The journalists identified several Rybar staff members, including Russian citizens with backgrounds in Russian state-linked media and projects. (Sep 18) 🇺🇸 US prosecutors have charged the CEO of Oxygen Forensics and a Russian national with allegedly hiding Russian ownership of the digital forensics company. Its software had reportedly been used by Russian security and law enforcement agencies, while prosecutors say its Russian ties were concealed as it pursued US government contracts, including work for the US Secret Service. The CEO allegedly presented the company as American-owned and denied Russian involvement in its software development. The two men face conspiracy charges related to alleged wire fraud. (Sep 23) 🇵🇱 After a fire broke out at the state-owned Polish Starlink satellite station in Wola Krobowska, Polish Deputy Prime Minister Gawkowski characterised the event as a deliberate “act of sabotage.” (Sep 24) 🇲🇪 A Russian-Israeli couple was arrested in Montenegro while trying to travel from Tivat (Montenegro) to Tel Aviv with 19 suitcases. In 17 out of those 19 suitcases, investigators found electronics, including a radio-signal detector, surveillance and computer equipment, and a GPS tracker with a microphone. More equipment was later found in an apartment that the couple had stayed at. Furthermore, cash in multiple currencies totaling over 1 million euros were found. The authorities suspect the couple of money laundering and smuggling while some of the equipment may have been intended for espionage. They have been ordered to remain in custody for 30 days citing flight risk. (Sep 28) 🇪🇪 Estonian foreign minister Tsahkna and the Estonian Internal Security Service (KAPO) formally attribute the arson attack on a Milrem Robotics facility in Tallinn on August 14 to Russian intelligence services. Three Latvian citizens were arrested in connection to the attack. However, the incident did not result in casualties or a disruption of the production or delivery of products. The company produces uncrewed military vehicles, including those used in Ukraine. (Sep 29) Please note: 1. Drone incursions and airport closures due to drone sightings were deliberately left out. 2. This list in inherently incomplete.

Estonia publicly attributes the August 14 arson attack on Milrem Robotics to Russian special seevices. bbc.com/news/articles/c6m27l…

This is a perfect example of what Rogozin was talking about - “dicrediting the political […] leadership of the enemy […] as untrustworthy people [and] accusing them of corruption […].”

Dmitry Rogozin, Senator from temporarily occupied Zaporizhzhia, speaking at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (IGIMO) on Russian cognitive warfare: "Since winning a war is achieved primarily by discrediting the political military leadership of the enemy, presenting them in the eyes of their own people as unworthy people who accidentally came to the top of power in this country, these are the people who drive their own people to certain death, to slaughter. It's a very important way. The second way of discrediting the political and military leadership of an adversary country is by accusing them of corruption, where a tremendous amount of deepfakes are used to prove that a particular person on the adversary's side is just a thief and a corrupt person and therefore cannot be trusted. This is mainly applied to the most popular characters in the enemy nation. Of course, the method of intimidation is also used, it is a demonstration of one's own strength, the intransigence of one's own army in achieving the goals set and much more[...]." (emphasis added)

Anyone out there? 👀 For many months, I have been virtually absent from the app apart from monitoring the news - hard to keep up… I will go back to occasionally posting on hybrid warfare (or whatever you want to call it). See you guys in a bit! 🇺🇦🇪🇺

Why Russia Will (Hopefully) Not Use Nuclear Weapons Against Satellites. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte warns that Russia may place space-based nuclear weapons in space to target satellites. Those anti-satellite (ASAT) are not intended to engage earth-based but other space-based assets. However, every ASAT that will lead to the fragmentation of the target will lead to a large increase in orbital debris (OD), like the 2007 Chinese ASAT test that produced thousands of additional OD objects in low-earth orbit (LEO). That debris is a threat to all space objects due to their very high velocity. Even the smallest OD - as small as a millimeter - can lead to catastrophic damage to satellites, irrespective of their owner. Therefore, the logic is that OD is a deterrent against ASAT tests or missions (the Biden Administration has signed a moratorium on direct ascent ASAT tests that is supported by 37 other states (notably not by China or Russia)) because it would harm space-based capabilities and access to space itself. What would Russia gain from it? The U.S. arguably relies on space-based capabilities for its war-fighting more than Russia. Therefore, the destruction of U.S. or NATO satellites would hand an advantage to Russia. However, Russia would suffer from its actions as well. Russia would only enjoy a short window of opportunity (not even considering the violation of the Outer Space Treaty and the political backlash for using an ASAT weapon). In conclusion, using an ASAT weapon has significant blowback. The potential generation of debris in orbit acts as a deterrent against their usage. Hopefully, Russia will not sink to that level of destruction.

Drones spotted over military and critical infrastructure in Germany… again.

Swedish authorities are investigating an attempted sabotage incident on the island of Gotland. The saboteurs reportedly caused a pump stoppage at a lake that supplies large parts of the island by “turn[ing] the pump off and pull[ing] out a cable.” aftonbladet.se/a/Vz2em4

I’m currently reading @KeirGiles’ book “Who Will Defend Europe? An Awakened Russia and a Sleeping Continent”. The phrase that stuck with me is that “it’s easier to erode Russian capability than to change Russian intent” (p. 41). While I certainly agree with that premise, I think this sentence encapsulates the devate over Russia. The “war mongers” do not doubt Russian intent while the “peace mongers” do. So, if anything, we need to open the eyes of those who do not believe in a belligerent Russia by doubling down on showing what Russia’s intent clearly is: to reinstate the Russian empire and to subjugate the states and the peoples in its way. Supporting Ukraine while streamlining European deterrence and defense is the best way of preventing that scenario from becoming reality.