🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England - DR Congo 🇨🇩 Three bets on the exchanges for us to this early kick-off between England and Congo. The UK Bookies loves their boosted odds which creates some decent liquidity that we can be a part off! ⚽️ Harry Kane to Score @ 1.95+ ⚽️ Rashford 1+ Shot on Target @ 1.65+ ⚽️ Bellingham 1+ Shot on Target @ 1.75+ Kane is priced @ 1.80 with Pinnacle and we've correct odds around 1.75-1.85 so clearly a boost driving the price here higher than 1.90 and for a liquid market we'll take a +5-10% EV bet like this every day of the week. Bellingham and Rashford not the easiest once to price but we believe they'll get 60-70 minutes and will then have the correct odds around 1.50-1.55 for Rashford and 1.60-1.65 for Bellingham. Should be decent liquidity available for everyone since England is playing, loads of action getting matched. Fair odds mostly coming from our usage feature on propsdata.io , one of the easiest way to use the markets valuation for Shots on Target, Goals etc. and translate it into player prop odds!

⚽️ Canada Under 6.5 Goal Kicks @ 1.66 ⚽️ Canada Under 5.5 Goal Kicks @ 2.20 ⚽️ Canada Under 4.5 Goal Kicks @ 3.40 Expecting a quite dominant performance here at home for Canada, opponents of South Africa in the group stage had: 5, 8, 5 Goal Kicks. And with 5 Goal Kicks within the first 10 minutes versus Bosnia, Canada did not concede a lot of goal kicks overall versus the other opponents: 7, 2, 5. The 2 did however come versus a Qatar with 2 red cards, one quite early in the first half too so not really representative. Numbers looks a bit boosted because of this, so fair odds probably a bit higher than what the model says! Let's see how this one goes - Good Luck! 🤞

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What's your best bet so far this World Cup? Already settled or not settled!

🇸🇪 Sweden - Netherlands 🇳🇱 Happily taking the two main strikers for Sweden here to have a shot on goal each on exchanges, will be on the counters here versus a Netherlands team who'd like to get 3 points to be comfortable ahead of R3 game versus Tunisia. 🇸🇪 Viktor Gyökeres Over 0.5 Shots on Target @ 1.85+ 📊 1+ SOT in 13/15 Games for Sweden 📈 Model odds: 1.26 ⚡️ Usage model odds: 1.68 🇸🇪 Alexander Isak Over 0.5 Shots on Target @ 1.80+ 📊 1+ SOT in 12/15 Games for Sweden 📈 Model odds: 1.41 ⚡️ Usage model odds: 1.71 The Usage model clearly the reality check for the "normal" model here, the high averages not adjusted enough based on the opponent which the Usage models does perfectly. Will mainly be counters for Sweden to get shots on target today, could argue for Usage around 30% for both Gyokeres and Isak leaving us with fair odds around 1.60 Bit harder to get matched on the Alex Isak odds and Gyokeres odds just better so clearly the stand out play here @ 1.85+

⚽️ Lamine Yamal Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.0 (B365, MGM) ⚽️ Mbappe H2H v Yamal @ 1.44 (B365, MGM) ⚽️ Oyarzabal Spain Topscorer @ 2.65 (Betsson) This is a play on the minutes of Lamine Yamal in the two opening games, there's no way to be 100% certain about this but we're willing to bet on the minutes to be limited. Close to half of the expected amount of goals for Spain in the tournament comes versus Cape Verde and Saudi Arabia: 6.22 out of 12.49 expected Goals. Based off the information that's available, we know that Yamal did not play anything in the friendlies, he was not even on the bench in the last one but he's progressing well in training according to coach De La Fuente. Reports saying that Barcelona have wished for Yamal to play gradually in the first games so we have simulated his expected goals based off Barcelonas wishes: "The club’s preferred blueprint is for Yamal to play approximately 15 minutes against Cape Verde, around 60 minutes against Saudi Arabia, and then be in a position to complete the full 90 against Uruguay in the final group stage fixture." With that being said there's a good chance that Lamine Yamal plays less if Spain have already secured to group win ahead of R3, as the best teams are expected to rotate heavily due to the increase of games this world cup where finalists will play 8 games within one month time. For these calculations we have used the feature on our site called Usage. We simulate how many goals there's expected for Spain, France etc. and then we try to estimate how many of these goals will be scored by Lamine Yamal, Mbappe, Oyarzabal. The most important one - Lamine Yamal: Spain data: 8.7% of Spains goals, we see this as unreasonably low however and have used his Barcelona data to create a more reliable number. Barcelona data: 26.7% usage, drops to 21.2% if we remove penalties which Oyarzabal is expected to be on for Spain. We simulated with 15, 20 and 25% usage to see the differences in valuations and see if the bookies odds are reasonable given the expected playing minutes. For Mbappe we have been expecting 30-35% usage and Oyarzabal 25-30% usage for our calculations. Bookies implies that it's much tighter between Oyarzabal and Lamine Yamal than our calculations given reduced playing minutes, mainly due to the heavy load of goals expected to be scored by Spain in the opening games. We'd have Oyarzabal closer to 2.25 given that Yamal plays a limited amount in the first two games. As mentioned earlier, this is a bet on Yamals playing time and the worst case if he is playing all the games we still see a limited downside with these odds, there's no huge -EV positions if he is playing. To us it seems like the prices is simply expecting him to be playing in all games as usual. The three bets above are correlated, stake accordingly.

⚽️ Spain Over 21.5 Shots @ 1.80 🦶 Spain Over 12.5 Tackles @ 1.90 🤕 Cape Verde Over 11.5 Free Kicks @ 1.83 Combo: @ 6.50 Models are great to predict average games, this is a far from an average game but think there's a decent chance we'll see something similar like Germany - Curacao yesterday. Spain total dominance, high press when loosing the balls leading to a decent amount of tackles and free kicks to Cape Verde. Models probably not "spot" on here with the correct lines as it's impossible with these international teams playing 10-12 games a year with players rotating in and out of the teams it does however indicate that we think the bookies are off with their lines here. The gap between the best teams and the worst have proven to be bigger than expected and we expect to see nothing else here tonight. Cape Verde will get their chances on the counter but Spain will dominate, hopefully they'll give it a chance and we'll see Shots, Free Kicks and Tackles stack up!