Focused on #markets and #pensionplans. One time #actuary. Also, #korean #adoptee.
Joined April 2009
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The current U.S. debt ceiling is $41.1 trillion, following a $5 trillion increase signed into law in July 2025.
With the national debt now over $38 trillion and a projected deficit of nearly $3 trillion for the fiscal year, any reduction in government revenue will trigger debt-ceiling negotiations before the end of the 2026 fiscal year (September 30, 2026), just over a month before the midterm elections.
This could become very messy politically for the party that controls the White House and holds majorities in both the Senate and the House.
2026 is shaping up to be a very dynamic year.
The Ohio State Buckeyes are in a free fall. Losing to unranked USC last week in The Coliseum and now to the Oregon Ducks at home.
It is likely the Buckeyes are out of the CFP unless they win the B1G championship game. Will there be a shake up in Columbus, OH?
#cfp #B1G #B1GFootball #ohiostatebuckeyes #usctrojans #OregonDucks
Catholics - 31
The U - 24
The top ranked team in the nation loses again this season. If Notre Dame wins out the rest of the regular season, did they assure themselves a bye in the CFP with this victory?
#NCAAF #CFP #NotreDame #MiamiHurricanes #FightingIrish
Can the 76er come back from 20 down in the fourth quarter against LeBron James, first and third team.
#NBA #nbacup #cavaliers #Cleveland #sixers #LeBron
US equities are experiencing dramatic two-day reversal around the November 2026 midterms: a sharp relief rally on Wednesday (November 4) followed by a steep tech- and AI-led sell-off on Thursday (November 5) that erased those gains.
Thursday figures are approximate and subject to change.
Wednesday, November 4: Post-Election Rally
Wall Street rallied strongly after Democrats swept control of both the House and Senate, reducing political uncertainty and lifting risk appetite. Falling oil prices (WTI crude dropped ~8% on hopes of progress toward ending the Iran war) further supported the move.
Dow Jones Industrial Average: +1,569 points (+3.03%) to close at 53,356.12. Its best day since the April 2025 tariff-pause rally and its strongest post-midterm session since 1982.
S&P 500: +1.58% to 7,688.62.
Nasdaq Composite: +1.44% to 25,736.51.
Russell 2000: +1.58%.
VIX fell ~20% to the mid-16s. Advancers outnumbered decliners roughly 3-to-1 on the S&P 500.
Leadership was broad in economically sensitive and policy-favored areas (consumer discretionary, financials, healthcare/hospitals, real estate). Several Magnificent Seven names (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon) jumped 5%+, while pure AI/chip and data-center stocks were mixed or weaker on early regulatory concerns. Energy lagged sharply.
Thursday, November 5: Sharp Reversal and Tech Sell-Off
The post-election bounce reversed abruptly as investors focused on potential constraints on the AI data-center buildout under a Democratic Congress (including regulatory risks and comments from figures such as Bernie Sanders). Qualcomm’s softer outlook and ongoing AI valuation concerns amplified the move. Oil rebounded somewhat, and the VIX spiked sharply (toward the high 20s at times).
As of roughly 1:30–1:40 p.m. ET:
-Dow: Down ~3% / ~1,600+ points (near 51,650–51,800 range), fully erasing Wednesday’s gains.
S&P 500: Down ~4.0%
Nasdaq Composite: Down ~5%, entering correction territory (more than 10% below a recent high).
Semiconductor-related gauges (e.g., PHLX SOX / SOXX) fell ~10% or more, with Nvidia, AMD, Micron, Broadcom, and others down heavily (often 8–15%+). Tesla and SpaceX also declined notably.
Breadth was poor (decliners vastly outnumbering advancers); technology was the clear laggard.
The Nasdaq erased its entire prior-day rally within minutes of the open before losses deepened. This is on track for one of the weaker (or worst) second sessions after a midterm in modern data.
Historical Context
Immediate post-midterm reaction: Wednesday’s Dow surge was the strongest post-midterm percentage gain since 1982 (when the index rose ~4.25%). The S&P’s gain was also among the larger historical post-midterm daily moves. Markets often rise on reduced uncertainty after elections, but short-term paths are noisy.
Longer-term post-midterm pattern: Since 1950, the S&P 500 has been higher 12 months after every midterm election (19 of 19), with average gains around 15% (roughly twice a typical year). Gains have historically been solid regardless of which party controls Congress, though short-term volatility is common and midterm years themselves often feature deeper mid-year drawdowns before recovery. From Election Day to year-end, results are positive but less consistent.
Today’s sell-off: Commentators have described Thursday’s action as heading toward the worst second-day post-midterm performance for the S&P in nearly a century and a notably weak Dow reading in data stretching back to 1896. The AI/tech concentration and geopolitical overlay (Iran conflict) distinguish this cycle from pure historical averages.
Broader backdrop: Year-to-date (prior to Thursday’s session), major indexes were up roughly 11–12%. Key upcoming catalysts include Friday’s jobs report. The two-day action illustrates classic post-election “uncertainty premium” removal followed by a rapid reassessment of policy winners and losers, especially around AI capital spending, while longer-term historical midterm patterns remain positive on average.
Chicken Little called. The sky is falling. The world is coming to an end. The Dow is down 1,700 points intraday. It will never come back.
Relax. On October 19, 1987, the Dow fell by over 508 points or 22.6%. It recovered. This market will recover by the end of this month (November 2026).
#chickenlittle #dowjones #marketcrash #relax
The race for 2028 may begin with a Cabinet exodus.
Don’t be surprised if Trump Cabinet officials start resigning to position themselves for the presidency.
The playbook? Distance themselves from a lame-duck president while claiming they’re uniquely qualified to fix Washington because they know how it works.
We’ve seen this movie before. History has a way of repeating itself.
Who’s first to jump ship?
#Trump #Election2028 #Politics
Nasdaq plummets into correction territory, Dow slides more than 1,000 points as traders dump tech stocks
#Nasdaq #djia #dowjones #tech
cnbc.com/2026/11/04/stock-ma…
Grok’s midterms post mortem.
Democrats delivered a historic midterm landslide on November 3, 2026, seizing control of both the House and Senate in a decisive rebuke of President Donald Trump and Republican governance.(<pbs.org/newshour/politics/de…>)
This was not a standard midterm correction. It produced Democratic majorities in both chambers of Congress for the first time in years, with gains extending deep into Republican territory—including states and districts Trump carried decisively in 2024. Exit polls and early returns pointed to economic anger (high prices, gas costs linked to the Iran war, and tariffs), Trump’s low approval ratings (around 38%), and a sharp shift among Hispanic voters as key drivers.(<reuters.com/business/media-t…>)
Actual Results
Senate: Democrats secured a majority of roughly 54 seats to Republicans’ 44 (including independents caucusing with Democrats), for a net gain of about +7. Confirmed flips included:
- Iowa: Josh Turek (D) over Ashley Hinson (R)
- Kansas: Adam Hamilton (D) over Roger Marshall (R) — first Democratic senator from Kansas since 1932
- Texas: James Talarico (D) over Ken Paxton (R) — first Democratic senator from Texas since 1988
- South Carolina: Annie Andrews (D) over Darline Graham (R) — first since 1998
- Ohio: Sherrod Brown (D) over Jon Husted (R)
- North Carolina: Roy Cooper (D)
- Maine: Troy Jackson (D) over Susan Collins (R)
Democrats also held competitive seats such as Michigan (Abdul El-Sayed, the first Muslim U.S. senator) and Georgia (Jon Ossoff). A couple of races (e.g., Alaska, Mississippi) remained close or uncalled into November 4.(<cnn.com/2026/11/03/politics/…>)
House: Democrats crossed the 218-seat threshold and were projected for a comfortable majority, with early counts showing around 228–230+ seats called and net gains of +25 or more (some models and NBC projections pointed toward the 240s). They flipped seats across the map, including in rural and Trump-won districts in Iowa, Pennsylvania, Texas, Kentucky, and elsewhere. Hakeem Jeffries is positioned to become Speaker. (<theguardian.com/us-news/ng-i…>)
Governors and other races: Democrats flipped or won several high-profile governorships, including Texas (Gina Hinojosa over Greg Abbott, making her the state’s first Latina governor), Georgia (Keisha Lance Bottoms, the first Black woman governor), Wisconsin (David Crowley), Iowa, and Ohio. They reclaimed a majority of governorships. Historic firsts also included Xavier Becerra as California’s first elected Latino governor and other demographic milestones. Republicans held some seats, such as Florida (Byron Donalds). (<inquirer.com/politics/electi…>)
The wave was broad: Republicans lost ground in the vast majority of counties with substantial results, and Democratic gains reached places that had not elected Democrats statewide in decades. (<reuters.com/world/us/seven-n…>)
Pre-Election Predictions
Forecasts consistently favored Democrats for the House and leaned toward them for the Senate, though with more uncertainty on the upper chamber:
- House: Near-universal expectation of a Democratic majority. Models (Nate Silver/FLIPR, Decision Desk HQ, others) put Democratic chances at 80–99%, with median projected gains of roughly 15–25 seats and totals in the 230–240 range. Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball projected gains of 12–25 seats.
- Senate: Lean Democratic, with probabilities typically 60–85%. Median forecasts clustered around 51–53 seats. Key toss-ups or lean races included Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, Texas, and others. South Carolina was often rated Lean or Likely Republican until late.
- Prediction markets (Kalshi, Polymarket): Strongly favored Democratic control of the House (~93–95%) and Senate (~75%). They correctly favored Democratic winners in many competitive races (Texas Senate, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, etc.).
- Polls showed Democrats leading or competitive in most battlegrounds, with a solid generic ballot advantage, though many races were projected as close.
Cook and similar raters emphasized an expanding battlefield favoring Democrats late in the cycle, but still treated several red-state Senate seats as competitive rather than certain flips. (<natesilver.net/p/nate-silver…>)
Where Predictions and Results Differed
The direction of control was largely anticipated—Democrats were favored for both chambers—but the scale and geographic reach exceeded most forecasts:
- The House majority looks larger than the typical 15–25-seat gain projections, with early indications of gains well above that and a potentially historic popular-vote margin.
- Senate flips in deep-red territory (especially Kansas since 1932, South Carolina, and a clear Texas win) went beyond the median expected seat total. South Carolina stood out as a major miss for prediction markets, which had priced Graham around 70% to win.
- Iowa Senate and Texas governor were closer or more mixed in some markets and models than the eventual outcomes suggested.
- Polls and models generally got the winners right in the main battlegrounds but underestimated the size of Democratic margins and the intensity of the anti-Trump/anti-Republican wave. Economic discontent, the Iran war’s impact on gas prices, tariffs, and shifts among Hispanic and other voters proved stronger than late polling fully captured.
Prediction markets performed well overall on control and most individual races (correctly calling the majority of competitive Senate and governor contests), with the notable South Carolina miss and a few others. Traditional polls and raters captured the environment but not the full magnitude of the “100-year flood”-style result some analysts later described.(<reuters.com/world/us/democra…>)
In short, the 2026 midterms confirmed a strong Democratic environment driven by voter frustration with prices, the war, and the administration’s direction. The result was a broader and deeper wave than the consensus forecast of a solid but more contained Democratic win. Full certified totals will continue to firm up in the coming days, particularly in slower-counting states, but the outcome of unified Democratic control of Congress is clear.
Susan Collins US Senate career maybe coming to an end.
#susancollins #ussenate #Elections2026 #maine
The Chicago Bears win the mid season NFC Championship game against the Seattle Seahawks.
#MNF #DaBears #SeattleSeahawks #NFL
Australia hikes rates to 18-year high to fight inflation
#Australia #rates #inflation
cnbc.com/2026/11/03/australi…
The Sacramento Kings get their first victory of the season over the Dallas Mavericks, who were without Kyrie Irving.
#NBA #sacramentokings #dallasmavericks #KyrieIrving
The New Orleans Pelicans defeat the Memphis Grizzlies. There are no undefeated teams remaining in the NBA.
#NBA #Pelicans #Grizzlies
Last full day of campaigning for those on the ballot tomorrow. With many mail in votes already cast, who are the swing voters left to convince? The cynic in me says that only those who think mail in voting is a fraud are the remaining votes that need to be swayed to show up and vote tomorrow.
With mail in voting, this makes exit polls less reliable.