Paul Tullis

Have been saying all along that the pseudo-experts on Venezuela that popped up over the past few months were miscalculating the internal situation in the country and government. The story the opposition and Machado were telling was not the reality inside the country, but they were platformed on all major media worldwide and had the ear of governments throughout Europe and the US, and most think tanks regurgitated the same talking points. This has been the case for years - decades really. They were wrong. This is just a simple overview. The government in Venezuela has been comprised of several groups that have a power-sharing pact. They control different sectors of the apparatus - security, military, pueblo, colectivos, institutions, judiciary, oil industry, business, etc. One of those groups - Delcy and her brother Jorge - have now taken power through a meticulous and 'evil genius' negotiation with the Trump administration that has been going on for months behind the scenes. Note that the new indictment against Maduro and Cilia includes both Maduro's son and Diosdado - this is purposefully to put them on alert that they are next should they betray the Rodriguez siblings. CIA is now operating inside Venezuela and can execute another 'extraordinary rendition' at any time on Trump's orders. Delcy has allowed them in and permitted them to stay. The US Embassy is returning, along with all of its intel & military support. The calculation was that the most important thing for the 'Boliviarian movement' (they do not represent chavismo, they long ago betrayed Chavez and his legacy) and their own interests (power, wealth accumulation) was for them to maintain power - no matter the cost, including sacrificing Maduro. There was zero chance they would ever cede power to Machado or the exiled opposition. They represent a system, not a government taking its turn. They will do whatever it takes to retain control of the country, even negotiating and compromising with Trump, the 'evil empire'. The lobby began months ago, both with the Trump administration and in the media. Delcy was positioned in the international media as the 'moderate' and the most pragmatic to deal with. This made it clear that the cards had been dealt. Once Maduro was out, Delcy was in. In the coming days, more business deals will be made, some sanctions may be loosened and prisoners released. They will continue to appease Trump with lucrative deals, opening up Venezuela's rich resources (oil, gold rare earths, heavy metals, minerals, coastline, etc) to Trump and his friends. Perhaps a Trump resort in Margarita Island or Los Roques. All the things Machado promised, but without her. Trump has no interest in democracy or Machado. He never met with her, never invited her to the White House like George W. Bush did during the height of the attempts to overthrow Hugo Chavez. Trump resents her Nobel Peace Prize (which he believes he deserves), but also understands the truth: Machado cannot command the country right now. She does not have the support from the groups in power or their enablers. Delcy&Jorge promised Trump stability and control, for now. If sanctions ease, life can improve inside the country, which will calm tensions over the US invasion and Maduro's violent capture. No doubt that the remaining chavista and leftist movements in the country are not happy with this betrayal. Over time there will be a growing internal opposition to the government, but they will likely employ the same tactics as before - any dissent will be treated as treason and repressed. Especially now with Trump's arsenal hovering above Caracas. They will tell the people that this is necessary to continue the 'chavista movement', even though their true interest is their own power and wealth. However, the biggest wild card is Trump. His volatility and lack of strategy shows he can change his mind at any time. It is a very dangerous time for Venezuela.