That which seems to be wealth may in verity be only the gilded index of far-reaching ruin. Draw your own conclusions.
Joined December 2013
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I see a lot of comparisons of the current property downturn with previous downturns.
For Sydney, in nominal terms this is the sharpest downturn since 1990, although not (yet) as deep as 2017-19...but (1/3)
in real terms, the current downturn is, in fact, a continuation of the downturn that started in 2021 and never reclaimed the peak. Persistent inflation means we are now in the second leg of a 5-year downturn, and it's the most vicious second leg of any since 1990.
📉 2026-11-02: Clean sweep, all five capitals lower on the day, the week and the month. No holdouts. Sydney and Melbourne sit right on their 12-month lows. The one crack: Perth's slide is easing at +2.5pp, from -1.8pp a month ago.
Grand sandstone residence. Over a thousand grand gone.
Bought Dec 2023 for $3.7m. Listed at $3.5–3.8m hoping to get it back. 260 days later: sold Oct 2026 for $3.0m.
-$700k nominal, over $900k all-in after stamp duty and agent fees, well over $1m in real terms.
📉 2026-11-01: Melbourne the steadiest grind at 0.02% daily volatility, slide easing (+1.0pp). Brisbane and Adelaide the jumpiest at 0.04%. Brisbane's fall is deepening (-3.6pp vs +0.8pp a month ago), while Adelaide treads water (-0.3pp).
📉 2026-10-31: Where 30d pace sits today: Brisbane -21.7%/yr, Perth -19.9%, Sydney -18.7%, all deep in double-digit declines. Adelaide -14.7% in the middle. Melbourne the shallowest faller at -9.1%, the only capital in single digits.
📉 2026-10-30: Momentum leaders are scraping the floor: Melbourne 13, Adelaide 10, the rest 0. MEL and ADL declines easing (+1.1pp, +1.3pp). Sydney, Perth and Brisbane sit at zero with slides deepening, Brisbane fastest at -2.3pp.
Exciting future potential costs vendor $170k on ticket price in 15 months.
Jul 2025: $1.1m → Oct 2026: $930k
Over $200k all-in after stamp duty and agent fees.
📉 2026-10-29: A year ago Perth was running at +33.8%/yr. Today: -19.5%/yr, a 53-point swing, the biggest on the board. Brisbane follows at 42 points (+22.0% to -19.8%). Melbourne swung least, 17.5 points, from +8.5% to -9.0%.
📉 2026-10-28: The best-to-worst 30d gap tops 1pp: Melbourne -0.70% vs Brisbane -1.71%. Annualised that's 12.1pp, up from 8.2pp a month ago. Melbourne's slide eases (+1.9pp), Brisbane's deepens (-2.7pp). Divergence builds.
📉 2026-10-27: Adelaide's week did the most damage, -23.9%/yr over 7 days vs -13.1% across 30. Brisbane too, -27.2% vs -20.1%. Melbourne flipped: a quiet -3.0% week in a -8.6% month. Sydney's week also ran gentler, -14.9% vs -18.7%.
"Outstanding opportunity for first-time buyers, downsizers, or savvy investors."
Best for the agency: sold it, leased it, sold it again all in 16 months.
For the investor: -$68.5k nominal, over $100k all-in after stamp duty and agent fees.
Jun 2025: $955k → Oct 2026: $886.5k
📉 2026-10-26: Calendar 2026 so far: Sydney -9.4%, Melbourne -7.7%, Brisbane -1.3%. Perth clings to +0.05% YTD after October's -1.4%, the steepest month of any capital. Adelaide alone holds a real gain, +0.9%.
📉 2026-10-25: Adelaide, last capital to peak (136d ago), sits just -4.0% off its top, and its slide has stopped deepening: +0.5pp vs -5.1pp a month ago. Brisbane's cushion above its 365d low thins to 2.4%, decline deepening (-2.1pp).
Oh là là. Effortless living meets a $3m loss in 3 years on Olola Ave.
Sep 2023: $9.5m → Oct 2026: $7.07m
-$2.43m nominal, over $3m all-in after stamp duty and agent fees.
📉 2026-10-24: Sydney has closed lower 45 days straight, 17 shy of its 62-day mark for the year. Perth is 37 deep, Brisbane 23, six from its record. The composite's 151-day run is now the longest in the 365d window.
📉 2026-10-23: A $1M Perth home bought at the May peak is worth $927k today, 162 days on, down $73k. Undoing that 7.3% fall takes +7.9%. A buyer at Sydney's March top is out $97k and needs +10.8% to get back.
📉 2026-10-22: Every capital's past week fell faster than its month. Brisbane diverges most, at -26.4%/yr over 7 days vs -18.5% across 30. Perth follows at -23.1% vs -18.7%. Sydney alone tracks its run rate, -19.1% vs -18.6%.
